"Woody's Sharp Critique of Three AI Giants: Who's Leading, Who's Lagging, and the Competition Key"

The integration of data and technology, along with the economies of scale, will become the core logic driving future technological breakthroughs and economic transformations.

In the latest episode of the podcast "Bankless," well - known American investor and founder of Ark Investment, "Cathie Wood" Catherine Wood, along with Brett Winton, the Chief Futurist of Ark Investment, jointly discussed the disruptive technologies that are expected to reshape the future economy.

The conversation revolved around the investment logic of the three AI giants (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic), the secrets of Elon Musk's success in multiple fields, the impact of Wright's Law on technology costs, the AI - driven productivity revolution, and the development of cutting - edge fields such as autonomous driving, humanoid robots, Neuralink, and SpaceX. It revealed that the integration of data and technology, along with the scale effect, will be the core logic driving future technological breakthroughs and economic changes.

The key points are summarized as follows:

1. Investment Logic: Betting on Technological Leaders in a "Winner - Takes - All" Market

In the field of venture capital, the conventional logic is often to avoid over - investing in the same track. However, we chose to invest in three seemingly competing AI companies: xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Behind this decision is our in - depth understanding of the "winner - takes - all" market rule. In the AI field, data, distribution speed, and proprietary data constitute the core barriers to competition, and these three companies are at the forefront of technology.

OpenAI has obtained a vast amount of interactive data by providing more tokens to end - users and has been rapidly iterating its products. More importantly, OpenAI is expanding its terminal hardware devices, but it still lacks consumer distribution channels. xAI, on the other hand, has an unparalleled distribution advantage through Starlink and other channels. The X platform itself is a huge information hub, and as the xAI model continues to be optimized, the value of the information on the platform will continue to increase. Anthropic stands out in the field of coding models and is deeply integrated with Cursor.

Our investment strategy is different from traditional funds. We do not hold seats on the boards of these companies. This choice allows us to be more flexible in our layout, without being restricted by information leakage, so as to seize fleeting opportunities in the rapidly changing market. In this highly competitive field, we firmly believe that two or three companies will eventually stand out, and our goal is to hold shares in these future leaders.

It is worth noting that the layouts of technology giants are not flawless. Apple has always lacked a clear direction in its AI strategy, as evidenced by the performance of Siri. Google, although having top - notch AI researchers, has failed to make breakthroughs in core areas such as search. At the same time, China's open - source models are also rising rapidly, and their vertical integration paths are worthy of attention. However, currently, apart from ChatGPT, they lack the support of social networks. And each company is actively positioning itself, and the market competition is extremely fierce.

2. Insights into Technology Integration Strategy and Data Value

Elon Musk's success is by no means accidental. He is a strategist who can perceive the trend of technology integration. In my opinion, his core competitiveness lies in his profound understanding of the value of data.

Tesla is often mistakenly regarded as just a car manufacturer, but in fact, it operates the largest AI project on Earth. Autonomous taxis are its core carriers, and every day, countless users of Model 3 and Model Y collect data for it while driving. Meanwhile, Tesla's layout in robotics and energy storage fields forms a mutually reinforcing closed - loop with AI technology.

The data stream of the X platform (formerly Twitter) is also unique. The merger of xAI and X eliminates the protocol barriers in data usage, enabling xAI to more efficiently utilize the real - time information on the platform. This integration not only improves the training efficiency of the xAI model but also continuously increases the value of the information on the X platform.

In the field of biotechnology, Neuralink's layout shows Musk's keen sense of cutting - edge data. "Multi - omics" data (integrating information such as DNA, RNA, and proteins) is becoming the key to unlocking the mysteries of life, and Neuralink is building a data stream channel connecting the brain and machines through brain - computer interface technology. AI is inspired by the brain, and Neuralink is trying to reverse - engineer the working mechanism of the brain. This exploration may bring revolutionary breakthroughs to the development of AI.

SpaceX has opened up a new data orbit. As a global communication network, Starlink not only provides a vast amount of satellite data, but its Mars exploration program has also promoted innovation in fields such as materials science and robotics. These technological advancements will ultimately benefit the Earth, triggering a chain reaction in industries such as energy and manufacturing.

Musk's success also lies in his insistence on "rapid iteration" and "tolerance for short - term failures." From the multiple explosions of the Falcon 9 rocket to finally controlling 90% of the commercial satellite launch market, he has proven the importance of speed and trial - and - error during technological changes.

3. Wright's Law: The Core Secret of Cost Change

While people are still talking about Moore's Law, I believe that Wright's Law can better reveal the cost logic of future technological development. Moore's Law assumes that technology progresses at a fixed speed every year, while Wright's Law states that whenever production volume doubles, production costs will decrease by a fixed percentage. This law has been verified in multiple fields and is becoming the "invisible engine" driving technology popularization.

In the field of electric vehicles, every time battery production doubles, the cost drops by 28%. The launch of the Tesla Model S not only detonated market demand but also promoted the expansion of battery production scale, causing the cost of electric vehicles to drop rapidly and move from high - end niche products to the mass market. The cost reduction in the field of industrial robots is even more significant, with a 50% cost reduction when production volume doubles.

The cost change in the AI field is even more amazing. The combination of hardware and software has led to a 48% reduction in AI - related costs, with a 70% annual reduction in training costs and a possible 98% reduction in inference costs. This sharp drop in costs has cleared the obstacles for the large - scale application of AI technology. Imagine that an analyst report that used to take a week to complete can now be generated by a GPT model in 20 minutes. After traditional human customer service is replaced by AI voice assistants, the service costs of enterprises are significantly reduced.

4. From Efficiency Improvement to Economic Reconstruction

The fact that ChatGPT reached 100 million users in a short period is not accidental. It indicates that AI technology is entering an explosive period. In my opinion, AI is the most integrative of all current technologies. It not only improves the productivity of knowledge workers but also reshapes the operating logic of the entire economy.

The wage expenditure for knowledge - based positions is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2030, and the application of AI software will significantly reduce this cost. The work efficiency of positions such as analysts, customer service representatives, and copywriters may increase dozens or even hundreds of times. This leap in productivity will not only increase corporate profits but also release a large amount of human and time resources for more creative work.

The impact of AI goes far beyond that. It is having a synergistic effect with other technologies. In the field of healthcare, the combination of AI and genomics has given birth to the "single - cell sequencing" technology, which allows us to analyze diseases at the level of 35 to 40 trillion cells, laying the foundation for precision medicine. It is expected that in the next 5 to 10 years, the time for new drug research, development, and launch will be halved, and countless patients will benefit from it.

From a macro - economic perspective, AI will be the core driving force for global GDP growth. In the next few years, the global real GDP growth rate may jump from the current 3% to 7%. This growth is not a fantasy. At the beginning of the last century, the emergence of the telephone, electricity, and the internal combustion engine increased the global annual GDP growth rate from 0.5% to 3% and maintained it for 125 years. Today, the five major innovation platforms of artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage technology, blockchain technology, and multi - omics gene sequencing technology are accelerating their integration driven by AI, and the growth potential they bring will far exceed that of the previous technological revolution.

5. Autonomous Driving and Robots Will Reshape the Future of Transportation and Production

Autonomous taxis are currently the "embodied AI" application closest to commercialization, and their popularization will completely change the way humans travel. In the United States, the cost of a "mileage package" for a new car is about $1 per mile, while Tesla's autonomous taxi service is expected to reduce this cost to less than 50 cents per mile. More importantly, it can save countless lives. In the United States, 40,000 people die in traffic accidents caused by human errors every year, and the number may exceed 1.2 million globally. The popularization of autonomous driving technology will significantly reduce the accident rate.

From an economic perspective, the impact of autonomous taxis is even more profound. Currently, American drivers have an accident every 700,000 miles, and Tesla's autonomous driving technology is expected to exceed this level in the next one or two years, reaching two to three times the safety level of human drivers. By then, autonomous taxis will become the safest way to travel, which means that most people will no longer need to own private cars, and travel will become a service that can be purchased on demand. The total annual mileage in the United States is huge. At $1 per mile, a Tesla autonomous taxi can generate tens of thousands of dollars in annual revenue by operating 100,000 miles. This will completely reshape Tesla's business model from car sales to travel services.

The development of humanoid robots is much more difficult than that of autonomous taxis, but the potential is also greater. Autonomous driving only needs to handle simple operations such as turning left, turning right, braking, and accelerating, and the environment is relatively standardized. In contrast, humanoid robots need to deal with complex and changeable environments, the positions of sensors change with movements, and there is no clear operating guide. However, humanoid robots have a higher fault - tolerance rate. A collision usually does not cause fatal consequences, which provides more space for technological iteration.

Tesla's advantage in the field of humanoid robots lies in technology synergy. The vast amount of data accumulated from its autonomous driving technology can be applied in reverse to the training of humanoid robots. The general - purpose chip technology is applicable to both cars and robots, reducing R & D costs. And the internal needs of Tesla's factories provide a natural testing scenario for robots. We expect that in the next 5 to 10 years, the global market size of autonomous taxis will reach $8 to $10 trillion, and the humanoid robot market will exceed $26 trillion in 5 to 15 years. The sum of these two markets will have a revolutionary impact on the global GDP (currently about $130 trillion).

6. Neuralink and SpaceX: Exploring the Boundaries of Life and Space

Neuralink's brain - computer interface technology is breaking the limits of human - machine interaction. Currently, it can help severely paralyzed patients control the cursor through brain signals, and in the future, it will be extended to the speech cortex, enabling those with damaged vocal organs to "speak" again. More excitingly, it can not only read brain signals but also write signals into the brain, allowing the blind to "see" infrared rays, the deaf to "hear" infrasound waves, and even enabling real - time interaction between humans and AI agents. When this technology becomes as popular as laser eye surgery, humans may "upgrade their brains" to improve memory and learn new skills, which will completely change the boundaries of education and cognition.

The significance of SpaceX goes beyond the Earth. As a global communication network, Starlink is disrupting the traditional space industry with a launch cost of less than $100 per kilogram (the previous cost was thousands of dollars per kilogram). The success of Starship will further reduce the launch cost, promote an explosive growth in the number of satellites, and provide low - cost network services for global users. More importantly, the Mars project will drive the progress of Earth's technology in reverse. The construction of a Mars base requires breaking through the bottlenecks in fields such as materials science and energy utilization, and these innovations will ultimately benefit all industries on Earth.

In the long run, Mars may become a base for space resource development. The energy consumption for launching satellites from Mars is much lower than that from Earth, which means that the cost of future space exploration and resource extraction will be significantly reduced. The test data of Tesla's robot technology in the extreme environment of Mars will also improve its applicability in the complex environment on Earth, forming an "Earth - Mars" technology cycle.