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From Technological Revolution to AI Competition: The Key Variables in the Rise of Great Powers

36氪的朋友们2025-07-15 09:18
The international competition in AI and the technological revolution drive the rise and fall of major powers. Analyze the historical, economic, and political logic from multiple dimensions.

In today's era, the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. Coinciding with the arrival of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, international competition in the field of AI is intensifying. Analyzing the scientific and technological revolution from historical, economic, and political perspectives and predicting the trend of international competition in AI deserve close attention from all sectors of society.

Historically, the rise of global powers has always been closely linked to scientific and technological revolutions.

In today's era, the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. Coinciding with the arrival of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, international competition in the field of AI is intensifying. Analyzing the scientific and technological revolution from historical, economic, and political perspectives and predicting the trend of international competition in AI deserve close attention from all sectors of society.

Historical Logic: The Evolution of the Scientific Center

In 1954, British scholar John Desmond Bernal first systematically proposed the academic proposition of "the transfer of the global scientific center" in his book Science in History, exploring the historical changes in the dominant position of global scientific activities in the geographical space.

In 1962, Japanese science historian Yugasa Mitsutomo discovered through quantitative statistical analysis that since modern times, the global scientific center has shifted in the order of "Italy - Britain - France - Germany - the United States", with a transfer cycle of about 80 years. This law is later known as the "Yugasa Phenomenon" cycle law.

Paul Kennedy, a history professor at Yale University in the United States, pointed out in 1992 that historically, the rise of any great power is closely linked to technological innovation and follows the growth path of "technological innovation - internationalization of domestic standards - provision of regional and international public goods - leading international public opinion".

That is to say, the scientific center is the leading force for the economic, political, cultural and educational, and military centers, and it is the first step for the rise of a great power.

Economic Logic: The Leap of the Economic Paradigm

However, a scientific and technological revolution does not necessarily lead to an industrial revolution. For example, although the ancient civilizations had many great technological inventions, they failed to give birth to modern industry. Italy, as the first global scientific center in modern times, also failed to initiate the industrial revolution first.

This shows that we cannot simply equate the scientific and technological revolution with the industrial revolution. There is a certain "gap" between the two. In other words, the scientific and technological revolution needs to make a "perilous leap", that is, through commercialization, industrialization, and large - scale production, it can be transformed into an industrial revolution. In fact, this requires the formation of a systematic transformation of the economic paradigm.

As American science philosopher Thomas Samuel Kuhn pointed out in his book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions: "The development of science does not occur in a continuous and linear way, but through a series of 'paradigm shifts'." Specifically, this requires a complete paradigm from technology to economy, covering production equipment, fuel energy power, infrastructure, urbanization, population structure, market scale, and social rules suitable for the development of new industries.

Looking at the scientific and economic development history of global powers, the popularization and application of General Purpose Technologies (GPT) in the whole society is the key to realizing the transformation of the economic paradigm and completing the "perilous leap" from the scientific and technological revolution to the industrial revolution. For example, the steam engine initiated the first industrial revolution, internal combustion engines and electrification technology became the symbols of the second industrial revolution, and computers and the Internet led the third industrial revolution.

That is to say, although a large number of inventions and creations emerge in the whole society during the scientific and technological revolution, and the technological routes are complex, from the perspective of the transformation of the technological - economic paradigm, the key lies in seizing the GPT technology and realizing the transformation of the economic paradigm as soon as possible, so as to lead the economic leap of the whole society.

GPT, as a clear economic concept, was first proposed in 1992 by Timothy F. Bresnahan of Stanford University and Manuel Trajtenberg of Tel Aviv University.

In their view, technology has a tree - like structure, with several major technologies at the top, and all other technologies are derived from them. They define that GPT has three important characteristics: universal applicability, innovation complementarity, and technological dynamism. Given the important significance of GPT, economists generally believe that GPT plays a crucial role in the economic rise of a country.

Political Logic: The Rise of Great Powers

The economic foundation determines the superstructure. The development of science, technology, and the economy will inevitably lead to the concentration of international power, which in turn triggers the rise of great powers. There are two different theoretical explanations for this.

The first explanation is the rise of the center and the diffusion to the periphery of the new paradigm.

It can be said that the industrial revolution triggered by the scientific and technological revolution naturally promotes the transfer of the world's power center. In particular, GPT brings the possibility of scientific and technological revolution and the rise of great powers.

Economists focus on how a country can take advantage of the transformation of the social - economic paradigm and the transformation of the international industrial and power centers brought about by the emergence of GPT to promote the rise of a great power.

Some scholars emphasize the importance of global infrastructure because a great power needs to actively build relevant infrastructure in the early stage of GPT development to seize the opportunity of technological change.

In this process, there is not only a technological revolution but also a comprehensive transformation and change in infrastructure, economic development paradigms, etc. For example, the development of navigation and ports provided opportunities for the rise of countries such as Britain, the Netherlands, and Spain; railways, telegraphs, and telecommunications provided opportunities for the rise of the United States; high - speed railways, automobiles, electronic components, and the Internet provided opportunities for the take - off of Japan and the Four Asian Tigers after World War II.

While shaping great powers, the power center will also form some small countries around the great powers, thus forming a center - periphery power order.

Some scholars have deeply explored the role of technological diffusion and large - scale application in the evolution of the great - power order, proposed the GPT diffusion theory, and pointed out that the key to determining which country can embrace the future lies in the infrastructure of GPT, not just seizing the high ground in the field of innovation.

The construction of infrastructure compatible with the new GPT requires the formation of a new paradigm that integrates the industrial revolution and financial capital. In this process, the new paradigm needs to break through the obstacles of the old social system framework, absorb the new paradigm of the technological revolution when the old system breaks down, and re - couple with the newly formed social system framework, so as to give full play to the technological complementarity of GPT and make it play a greater role in the rise of great powers.

It can also be seen from this that the international power pattern of the center - periphery is relatively stable within a certain period. While the central countries maximize their interests, the peripheral countries can benefit from technological spill - overs and industrial transfers, and they achieve and grow together.

As Robert Gilpin, a famous American international relations and international political economist, pointed out in 2006, scientific and technological revolutions and industrial changes are the main reasons for the rapid economic growth in the core area and its rise relative to other societies. Subsequently, new technologies and industries will spread to the peripheral economies.

Gilpin also proposed that as the economic growth rate of the rising great power becomes relatively limited due to the slowdown in the innovation speed, the diffusion of its economic, technological, and organizational skills will weaken its competitive advantage over other countries, especially those on the periphery of the system. At this time, emerging countries gain the late - mover advantage, which promotes the further change of the international power system.

The second explanation is technological sovereignty and technological nationalism.

On the one hand, dependence and being dependent constitute power. In international political theory, power tools refer to the means by which a country defends its autonomy and exerts influence in the international system, including economic strength, military strength, soft power, and control over communication.

From an economic perspective, economic interdependence can be used as a power tool for competition. Since economic interdependence is rarely symmetrical, countries strive to develop asymmetrical interdependence to maximize their autonomy and influence.

For example, China's initiative to jointly build the "Belt and Road" and the "Digital Silk Road" in 2013 shows that China is weakening the United States' control over the maritime transport corridors, which are important pillars of geopolitical and economic power.

On the other hand, dependence on other countries' technologies will damage a country's sovereignty. If a country is controlled by others in key technologies, it will form an asymmetrical dependence on other countries, which will affect the autonomy of its international strategies in economic, political, military, and diplomatic aspects.

If a country is not technologically independent, it will be difficult to be independent in other aspects. For example, because Russia is not a technological leader, it has little ability to compete with the technological ecosystems of the United States and China. An international threat faced by some African countries is that they are too backward in technological accumulation and implementation, and thus become "technological colonies" due to excessive dependence on foreign enterprises, which will saturate their markets and hinder the maturity of domestic substitutes. The best way to solve this problem is to cooperate with China to establish local technological reserves and integrate local industrial development into the global technological ecosystem.

Logic of the Era: International Competition in AI

First, how to view this era?

Currently, the world presents a pattern of multiple scientific and technological centers and multiple economic centers, and the competition situation is becoming more complex.

Historically, there has been a seemingly contradictory phenomenon: the co - existence of a single dominant country and a global free order. When a country rises rapidly in a scientific and technological revolution and other countries do not pose a threat, international division of labor will consolidate its control over geopolitical and economic power levers such as strategic industries, transportation corridors, and financial tools, enabling it to amplify the market dividends brought by technological advantages through globalization.

Therefore, this great power will advocate globalization and be willing to share its advanced technologies. At the same time, followers with a technological foundation gradually become emerging countries through imitation and learning. They have a strong motivation to promote the faster diffusion of technologies, thus forming a relatively stable free - economic international order.

Conversely, when the concentration of economic power decreases, the free order is expected to collapse, and the relevant regime will become more vulnerable and may eventually be replaced by mercantilist arrangements. At this time, national power will be based on market forces.

The fourth industrial revolution takes place in such a fragmented international economic system. Economies such as the United States, Europe, and Japan are making fewer commitments to free trade. This major change will make their economic strategies more unscrupulous, coercive, and destructive.

Second, how to view AI?

Today's society has entered the era of intelligent economy from the era of platform economy and the stage of intelligence from the stage of digitization. Comparing China and Japan, Japan actually seized the opportunity of the third industrial revolution but missed the opportunity in the transformation process of personal computers, smartphones, and platform economy. China has seized the opportunities of the fourth industrial revolution in personal computers, smartphones, platform economy, new - energy vehicles, and autonomous driving, but has historical shortcomings in the third industrial revolution (such as in the field of chip semiconductors).

What we urgently need to study is: What is new about the fourth industrial revolution compared with the third industrial revolution? What experiences and lessons can we learn from Japan's performance in the third industrial revolution? For example, how to seize the AI opportunity faster and more steadily to achieve the development of human - machine collaboration, integration of the virtual and the real, and integration of reality and intelligence.

Third, how can we seize the advantage in international AI competition in this era?

The new round of scientific and technological revolution features a deep integration of the scientific and technological revolution and the industrial revolution. Its core lies in using emerging technologies as the driving force to promote fundamental changes in the industrial structure and leap - forward improvement of productivity.

First, the clustered breakthroughs of new technologies have formed a new productivity system. Breakthroughs in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, big data, quantum computing, and clean - energy technologies are reshaping the production models of traditional industries and giving birth to emerging industries such as intelligent manufacturing, green energy, and the digital economy.

Second, the shaping of the industrial ecosystem has become the key to economic competition. Different from previous single - point technological breakthroughs, this round of scientific and technological revolution emphasizes the coordinated development of technological systems, leading to the ecological reconstruction of the upstream and downstream industrial chains. Taking the new - energy vehicle industry as an example, the deep integration of intelligence and electrification not only innovates the traditional model of automobile manufacturing but also profoundly reshapes the coordinated ecosystem in the fields of energy supply, materials science, and software development.

Finally, industrial sectors have become an important force in technological innovation. Taking large - scale AI models as an example, as large - scale models become the technological paradigm leading this round of artificial - intelligence revolution, the industrial circle with more data and computing - power resources has gradually surpassed the academic circle and become the protagonist in promoting the development of artificial intelligence.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Economic Observer". Author: Liu Cheng. Republished by 36Kr with permission.