DDR4 is phasing out, and domestic CPUs are facing a minor test.

DDR4 prices have skyrocketed.

Since early May, DDR4 prices have been continuously rising. For popular part numbers like DDR4 16Gb 3200MHz, the price has increased from $2.4 in the week of May 6th to $6.4 this week, a surge of over 160%.

Even under the same memory conditions, the price of DDR4 is more expensive than that of DDR5, resulting in a rare "price inversion" phenomenon. An industry insider commented, "I've never seen the price of a DDR memory chip that's about to be discontinued soar so high at the end of its production cycle."

As a storage medium that directly interacts with the CPU, the technical specifications of DDR (Double Data Rate Random Access Memory) directly determine the upper limit of the CPU's computing power. Currently, there aren't many domestic CPUs on the market that can support DDR5. Therefore, as DDR4 gradually exits the market, some domestic CPUs will also be affected.

DDR4 Discontinuation Triggers Market Turbulence

The turmoil surrounding DDR4 stems from the discontinuation plans of the three major giants.

In June, Micron executives confirmed the discontinuation plan for DDR4/LPDDR4X. They stated that the company has notified customers that DDR4 products will enter the phase of discontinuation, affecting customers in the PC and data center sectors. Samsung and SK Hynix have clearly informed customers to stop the production of DDR4 and set the final order deadline at the beginning of June this year.

In the view of memory manufacturers, DDR4 has reached the end of its life cycle and is ready for the process transition. The product update and iteration of DDR are originally a normal process.

DDR2 began mass production around 2003, and Samsung officially discontinued the old DDR2 production line in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a production cycle of approximately 18 years.

DDR3 started large-scale mass production around 2008. Samsung entered the final shipment phase in 2023, and SK Hynix stopped supplying in late 2023. Overall, the production cycle of DDR3 was about 15 - 16 years.

DDR4 was launched in 2014 and will gradually be discontinued by the end of this year. From launch to discontinuation, the production cycle of DDR4 is about 11 years.

The increasingly shorter update time is not only due to continuous technological progress but also, more importantly, related to "how much profit can be made."

On the one hand, DDR5 has significant improvements over DDR4. Its frequency starts from 4800MHz (OEM brand computers may have low-frequency products like 4400MHz). The bandwidth is greatly increased compared to DDR4, and the single-module capacity can reach 48GB - 64GB. It also supports asymmetric design (such as 12GB/24GB/48GB), which can better meet the high-load requirements of AI training and 4K video editing. It can be said to comprehensively surpass DDR4 in terms of performance, capacity, and energy efficiency.

On the other hand, HBM offers extremely high returns. HBM products have long been the top priority of memory manufacturers' business and have become a highly profitable market. It's worth noting that although SK Hynix's HBM products account for only 14% of its total DRAM shipments, they contribute 44% and 54% of DRAM revenue and operating profit respectively.

Squeezed by DDR5 and HBM, DDR4 can only be continuously scaled back. This is why, compared to DDR3 and DDR2, the exit of DDR4 this time is more "dramatic."

This is the view from the upstream.

For the downstream, DDR4 can still have a longer lifespan. After all, compared to DDR5, DDR4 is a "cost-effective" product. For server manufacturers, although its performance is not as strong as DDR5, it can fully meet the needs of some general servers, and the price is much lower than that of DDR5.

It should be noted that CPUs such as Intel's Raptor Lake and Ice Lake only support DDR4. In addition, some domestic CPUs can only support DDR4.

The mismatch between supply and demand has caused the price of DDR4 to continuously increase, reaching the current "crazy" level.

Domestic CPUs Face a Minor Test

There is still a certain "generational gap" between international chip giants and domestic manufacturers in the popularization process of DDR5.

As early as 2021, Intel listed DDR5 as an officially supported memory specification in its 12th - generation Core processors. Currently, Intel's Core processors of the 12th generation and above, such as Core i and Core Ultra 200, all support DDR5 memory. Most low - end entry - level motherboards like Intel's H610 also have DDR5 memory versions, and mainstream and high - end motherboards such as Z890 and B860 have good support for DDR5.

AMD completely abandoned DDR4 and fully embraced DDR5 in its Zen4 - architecture Ryzen 7000 series launched in the same year. AMD has actively deployed DDR5 in both consumer - grade and data - center - grade products. Among consumer - grade products, AMD has the Ryzen 7000 series and higher - end models. Among data - center - grade products, AMD's fourth - generation EPYC processors and EPYC 4005 series processors support DDR5 memory.

Overall, the upgrade of the CPU architecture of international giants and the iteration of memory form a closely coordinated rhythm.

Currently, there aren't many domestic CPUs that can support DDR5. The main - promoted CPUs in the market, such as Huawei Kunpeng 920, Hygon 3rd - generation 73XX series, Zhaoxin KH - 4000, and Loongson 3C6000, only support DDR4.

From the perspective of market demand, DDR4 memory still has a cost - effectiveness advantage in the short term. However, as the production capacity of DDR5 increases and the price drops, the transition window period is shortening. If enterprises purchase servers or individuals buy computers and choose these domestic CPUs that only support DDR4, they not only have to bear the pressure of rising memory costs but may also face the problem of compatibility after the DDR4 inventory is exhausted.

In terms of industrial chain coordination, domestic memory enterprises already have the technical reserves for DDR5. The key lies in achieving coordinated optimization with domestic CPUs. The dependence of domestic CPUs on DDR4 also poses challenges to domestic upstream and downstream enterprises in the memory and complete - machine sectors. Although memory manufacturers have the opportunity to fill part of the market with the rising price of DDR4, in the long run, if domestic CPUs cannot quickly keep up with the DDR5 iteration rhythm, the motivation for the domestic memory industry to transform to DDR5 and the coordinated ecosystem will also be affected. Complete - machine manufacturers need to balance current market demand and future technological evolution, which tests their supply - chain management capabilities.

To pass this "minor test," domestic CPUs need to accelerate the R & D and mass production of DDR5 - compatible products and build a more complete memory - coordinated ecosystem. Only in this way can they gradually narrow the generational gap and gain a foothold in the market in the competition with international giants.

Domestic CPUs Evolve Further

Although the discontinuation of DDR4 brings many challenges to domestic CPUs, there are also opportunities in the crisis. First of all, how long the DDR4 price increase will last has become the focus of market attention.

Regarding the increase in DDR4 prices, Chen Libai, the chairman of ADATA, said that currently, upstream memory manufacturers still have a very strong attitude towards the prices of DRAM and NAND Flash, especially for DDR4, which is planned to be gradually discontinued. Under the strong demand of downstream customers for early stocking, the contract price in the third quarter has been announced to increase by 30% - 40%. With the booming demand for DDR4, ADATA has been overwhelmed with orders, and the global production capacity is fully occupied. ADATA said that customers are willing to place large orders and wait in line for delivery, and the factory has been working overtime for five consecutive months.

Transcend also said that the recent orders for DDR4 have increased by 1.5 to 2 times. Although the production capacity is limited and cannot fully meet the demand, the supply - shortage situation in the market has pushed up the price significantly. Transcend expects that the strong order momentum will continue until the second half of the year. Moreover, Transcend predicts that Samsung's DDR4 inventory can last until the end of 2025, and Micron's products can be supplied until the first quarter of 2026.

Amid the soaring price of DDR4, some small enterprises have realized that DDR4 is profitable again and have decided to expand production. According to historical experience, this kind of price - inversion phenomenon is expected to last for three to five months and will end until the PC and server markets complete the upgrade and the demand for the DDR4 version significantly decreases.

The industry generally believes that as the discontinuation plans of memory manufacturers are steadily advancing, the supply of DDR4 will continue to decrease, and the price will remain high in the short term. However, in the long run, as the market's acceptance of DDR5 increases and the production capacity of DDR5 is gradually released, the price of DDR4 is expected to return to a rational level.

Secondly, the discontinuation of DDR4 is an opportunity for domestic memory enterprises. The reduction of DDR4 chip production by overseas memory manufacturers has left a certain market space for domestic DRAM chip manufacturers. The cooperation between domestic memory enterprises and CPU manufacturers is also heating up. Complete - machine manufacturers such as Lenovo and Inspur are also actively participating in the ecosystem construction. At the product design stage of servers and PCs, they integrate the compatibility solutions of domestic CPUs + domestic DDR5, lay out the production lines in advance, and pave the way for the marketization of the new technology combination.

Finally, domestic enterprises have shown a positive attitude in the layout of DDR5 - related products. From the CPU side, products such as Huawei Kunpeng 920 V200, Phytium S5000C, Hygon 74XX series, and Zhaoxin KX - 7000 have achieved support for DDR5.

Taking Phytium S5000C as an example, the Phytium S5000C - E is a high - performance server CPU mass - produced by Phytium. The intelligent computing solution based on this chip has served the Two Sessions of the country. The main frequency of Phytium S5000C is 2.1 - 2.3GHz. In the SPEC CPU 2006 test, the single - core performance is 31.9 points for integer and 37.7 points for floating - point. The full - chip performance is 1300 points for integer and 1170 points for floating - point. The dual - socket performance is 2540 points for integer and 2330 points for floating - point. It can support the DDR5 interface.

Zhaoxin KX - 7000 is a processor of the Kaixian kx - 7000 series based on the x86 architecture launched by Zhaoxin. The main frequency can reach up to 3.5GHz, and it also supports DDR5 memory and high - speed SSDs with PCIe 4.0. Moreover, a single Zhaoxin KX - 7000 CPU integrates all the interfaces required for a desktop computer, including the DDR5 memory interface, PCIe/SATA/USB, and complete display interfaces such as HDMI and DP. That is to say, a single Zhaoxin KX - 7000 processor can support a complete computer.

The Huawei Kunpeng 920 V200 processor is a new high - performance processor for data centers launched by Huawei. It has powerful computing capabilities and wide compatibility. The main frequency can reach up to 2.6GHz, providing strong computing power for data centers. Its memory bandwidth is increased by 60%, the IO bandwidth is increased by 66%, and the network bandwidth is increased by 4 times. It has the characteristics of high performance, high throughput, high integration, and high energy efficiency. It has currently passed the Class II security and reliability level certification evaluated by the China Information Technology Security Evaluation Center.

Conclusion

Although the price increase of DDR4 will gradually end over time, it should be noted that DDR5 also seems to be ready to rise in price.

TrendForce predicts that in the third quarter of this year, the price of DDR5, the most popular mainstream DRAM type in client and server applications, will moderately increase by 3% to 8%. Moreover, due to the pressure of US tariffs, the price of server DRAM should rise even more.

This means that whether it is the after - effect of DDR4 or the new fluctuation of DDR5, the price - sensitive period of the global memory market is far from over. For domestic CPUs, this "protracted war" around memory tests not only the speed of technological iteration but also the risk - resistance ability of the industrial chain and the depth of ecosystem coordination.

The wave of technological iteration never stops due to cost fluctuations. The exit of DDR4 and the rise of DDR5 are essentially the inevitable results of the upgrade of computing power demand.

After all, in the competition in the global chip industry, the real competitiveness has never been "avoiding price increases" but "defining the next - generation standard."

This article is from the WeChat official account "Semiconductor Industry Insights" (ID: ICViews). The author is Jiulin. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.