Smart Money | AI Craze + Domestic Substitution: The STAR Market Becomes the Main Battlefield for New - Quality Productivity. Where Is the Next "Doubling Dark Horse" Hidden?
Author | Cao Jiayao
Editor | Huang Yida
In the first half of 2025, the A-share market showed significant "ups and downs" under the combined influence of abundant liquidity, weak economic recovery, and frequent geopolitical events abroad.
In terms of market style, the differentiation among sectors intensified significantly. From the perspective of the main theme investment market, at the beginning of the year, the hard technology sectors represented by the AI industry chain and humanoid robots led the rise. After the tariff war in April, the bonus assets showed a "narrowing circle" characteristic, and high-ROE bank stocks became the first choice for defense. Recently, the popularity of themes such as solid-state drives and stablecoins has rebounded, and the small and micro-cap assets represented by the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 performed steadily due to abundant liquidity.
At the mid-year point, as the "frontier position" of China's hard technology, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is expected to continue to capture investment opportunities brought by the development of new productive forces for investors, benefiting from policy dividends, deepening industrial upgrading, and index structure optimization.
On July 2nd, 36Kr held a special live broadcast with Hong Luping, the Chief Training Officer of the Investor Relations Department of Bosera Fund Management Co., Ltd., and Tang Yibing, a fund manager in the Index and Quantitative Department, to conduct an in-depth analysis of the market outlook for the second half of the year and investment strategies for the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
Policy Empowerment: Building a Moat for the Hard Technology Ecosystem
The "1+6" new policy of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the establishment of the "Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer" are milestone measures for the capital market to deepen supply-side reform and serve scientific and technological self-reliance. The core of its policy intention is to systematically solve the financing pain points of technology companies through institutional innovation and help build an inclusive, efficient, and stable hard technology ecosystem.
The Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer precisely focuses on enterprises in cutting-edge fields that are not yet profitable but have strong technological breakthroughs and high R & D investment, such as popular sectors like AI and commercial aerospace. The fifth listing standard has been restarted and optimized, allowing these enterprises to access the capital market for financing based on their technological leadership and commercialization potential. They can transfer to the Science and Technology Innovation Board or the main board after meeting the profitability requirements.
The long-term significance of this round of reform lies in guiding long-term funds such as insurance and social security and professional institutions to enter the market, which is expected to stabilize the fluctuations of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and optimize the valuation environment. At a deeper level, the policy aims to build a virtuous cycle of "innovation - industry - finance." That is, enterprises focus on core technology research, industrial supporting policies provide support, and financial capital precisely assists in financing, jointly supporting the development of China's new productive forces. After this round of reform, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is expected to become the preferred listing destination for hard technology companies. For investors, the continuous improvement of the profitability of the board is conducive to the release of the long-term return potential of the index.
Overseas Game: Coexistence of Short - term Suppression and Long - term Opportunities
The impact of the global macro - environment on the Science and Technology Innovation Board shows a distinct duality.
In the short - term valuation aspect, as a representative of growth stocks, the valuation level of the Science and Technology Innovation Board is highly sensitive to the US Treasury yield: a decline in the US Treasury yield supports valuation expansion, while an increase suppresses it. Overseas risk events such as geopolitical conflicts and sudden policy changes will also intensify short - term fluctuations.
However, from a long - term industrial perspective, overseas pressure is transforming into a strong driving force for domestic substitution. Especially for high - quality Science and Technology Innovation Board enterprises with core technologies, the challenges from overseas are precisely a strategic opportunity period to accelerate development and establish a leading position in global competition.
In the semiconductor field, the tariff war and geopolitical conflicts have forced the acceleration of the domestic substitution process, and certain progress has been made, with a very broad improvement space in the future. In the biomedical field, although the US biosecurity bill indicates an upgrade of overseas policy restrictions, the global rigid demand for high - quality innovative drugs remains unchanged. Chinese CXO enterprises, due to their key position in the R & D industrial chain and the engineer dividend, are difficult to be replaced in the short - term in terms of production capacity, and the trend of global cooperation is irresistible.
Artificial Intelligence: Driving Industrial Upgrading of the Science and Technology Innovation Board
The explosive development of the AI industry has a multi - level impact on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
The short - term challenge lies in the shortage of advanced computing power cards, which restricts large - model training. However, domestic chips are progressing rapidly, and the computing power requirements of the inference end are relatively low, so domestic computing power can effectively meet the current demand.
The long - term opportunity is rooted in China's unique advantages: a huge consumer market of 1.4 billion people, a sizeable middle class, a complete industrial chain, and leading infrastructure. These advantages provide the world's best soil for the explosive implementation of AI applications, and Science and Technology Innovation Board AI enterprises will directly benefit from this.
The industrial logic of AI driving Science and Technology Innovation Board enterprises is clearly visible: directly, the surge in computing power demand drives the performance of sectors such as optical communication, PCB, and domestic chips to continuously exceed expectations; indirectly, AI empowers the efficiency improvement of all industries - humanoid robots are accelerating iteration due to breakthroughs in large models, AI copywriting and customer service at the consumer end achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement, enrich the R & D tools of the innovative drug industrial chain, and contribute to quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in the R & D stage. These booming emerging industries are precisely the key coverage areas of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the core position of the Science and Technology Innovation Board in the AI wave is becoming increasingly prominent.
Digging for Gold in the Science and Technology Innovation Board: Decoding the New Value of the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index
Within the Science and Technology Innovation Board, index - based investment tools show different characteristics. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index focuses on leading enterprises on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, with the semiconductor single industry accounting for nearly 60%; while the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index represents a more balanced and growth - oriented mid - cap force.
From the perspective of constituent composition, the compilation method of this index is to select the 100 enterprises with the largest market capitalization after excluding the constituents of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index. Currently, the median market capitalization is about 20 billion yuan. These enterprises have generally passed the early - stage risk stage, with clearer business models and broad growth space.
From the perspective of industry distribution, it mainly covers industry sectors such as new - generation information technology, biomedicine, new energy materials, and high - end manufacturing, precisely mapping the development direction of new productive forces.
From the perspective of R & D intensity, the proportion of R & D investment to revenue in the same period from 2023 - 2024 continued to exceed 15%, which is 7 times the overall average level of the A - share market. R & D priority is one of the core logics for future profit growth driven by technology.
From the perspective of valuation level, the current median price - to - earnings ratio is about 40 times. Considering its high - growth expectations, the valuation is in a reasonable range and is also significantly attractive in terms of valuation.
Coexistence of Risks and Opportunities: Rational Allocation Strategy for the Science and Technology Innovation Board
The Science and Technology Innovation Board differs significantly from traditional industries in terms of risk - return characteristics. The latter is dominated by the macro - economic cycle, with a volatility of about 20%, suitable for defensive - oriented investors; while the Science and Technology Innovation Board is driven by high - growth, with a volatility of 40%. Although profit realization may be delayed, at this stage, technological breakthroughs are the main consideration for valuation, so it is more suitable for growth - oriented investors who can bear risks and focus on the long - term.
In terms of investment strategies, investors can refer to the following points:
Stock - selection strategy: To pursue a high winning rate, investors can focus on the overseas computing power industrial chain, which currently has high prosperity, and the interim report season is a key verification period; to pursue high odds, investors can layout the AI application end, which has broad space although the business model needs to be verified. For ordinary investors, comprehensively allocating through index funds such as the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index to capture the overall beta of AI and technological development is the most cost - effective choice.
Allocation ratio: If the bottom position of the investment portfolio is conservative assets such as bonds, to enhance the offensive ability, the allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Fund can be set at 40% - 50%; if the investment portfolio is mainly composed of equity assets with relatively high risks, considering the common fluctuations, the recommended allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Fund is reduced to 20% - 30%.
Entry timing: It is recommended to use the fixed - investment method to enter the market in batches to smooth the cost and capture long - term returns, avoiding missing the trend due to short - term fluctuations; experienced investors can supplement with technical indicators such as the 20 - day/30 - day moving average, but the core investment logic is still to adhere to the long - term investment concept.