Two-thirds of China's provinces are facing collective blood loss.
The most "intimate" moments for contemporary urbanites definitely include sharing body heat and breaths with strangers on the subway during the morning and evening rush hours.
However, the once-cramped subway carriages in first-tier cities now seem a bit more spacious. In cities like Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Hefei, more and more people are flooding into the morning subway, and it has become normal to be packed like sardines. These physical sensations reflect the reshuffle of China's population map.
In 2021, China's total population reached a peak of 1.4126 billion. The following year, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births for the first time, and the natural population growth turned negative, marking the end of a 60-year growth trend [1].
Meanwhile, the loss of permanent residents is sweeping across two-thirds of China's provinces at an unprecedented speed.
More and more provinces are experiencing a decline in permanent residents
Every summer brings a new wave of departures. Right after the college graduation season, batches of young people pack their bags. Only a few of them return to their hometowns, while more and more are going further away.
Looking at the permanent resident population figures of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in 2024, we can see that the permanent resident population decreased in 20 regions compared to the previous year, remained basically the same in 3 regions, and only 8 regions still maintained growth [2].
Among them, Guangdong, known for its high birth rate, Zhejiang, known for its strong economy, and Fujian, known for its enterprising spirit, ranked first, second, and fourth respectively on the list of provincial-level administrative regions with the highest growth in permanent resident population.
The two ethnic minority autonomous regions of Xinjiang and Tibet also performed impressively, with an increase of 250,000 and 50,000 respectively. Shaanxi and Anhui managed to "hold their ground" among the central and western provinces experiencing population outflows.
Surprisingly, the people of Shandong, who used to prefer to go back home to take the civil service exams, are now leaving in batches. In 2024, Shandong's permanent resident population decreased by 430,000, the largest decline in the country, and it has been decreasing for three consecutive years since 2021.
It should be noted that from 2001 to 2021, Shandong's permanent resident population increased by 11.72 million in total, making it a province with a population of over 100 million, second only to Guangdong [2].
In addition, Henan and Hunan, two traditional population giants, also "lost ground" along with Shandong. Their permanent resident populations both decreased by about 300,000 in 2024.
If we look at a longer time frame, we will find that some regions had already quietly hit the brakes when the national population was still growing.
From 2000 to 2010, the permanent resident population decreased in five provinces, mainly in regions with a weaker economic foundation such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi. At that time, the Northeast could still maintain a slight growth relying on the afterglow of its old industrial system [3][4].
By the 2010s, the Northeast was in serious trouble. The permanent resident population decreased by over 11.3 million in total during the decade, becoming the first region to experience overall population loss. Nationwide, the number of provinces with a decreasing permanent resident population slightly increased to six during this period.
The real turning point came after 2020. The problem of the outflow of permanent residents has affected more and more regions. Henan, Hunan, Shandong, Hebei, etc. have taken over the downward trend. Even municipalities directly under the Central Government like Shanghai and Tianjin are less attractive than before.
Comparing 2024 with 2020, the number of provincial-level administrative regions with a decreasing permanent resident population has soared to 19.
Even in provinces where the permanent resident population is still growing, it is difficult to reproduce the past glory. Take Guangdong for example. The population increase from 2020 to 2024 is only one-third of that from 2000 to 2004.
Behind this, in addition to the continuously low birth rate, population mobility has also become more "localized". The Seventh National Population Census shows that among the 376 million floating population in the country, nearly 70% are moving within the province, an increase of 5.6 percentage points compared to 2010 [5][6].
In other words, people are still on the move, but they are not going as far. The slogan "Go to Guangdong to make a fortune, no matter where you are from", which inspired a generation to leave their hometowns and work in the south, doesn't seem to be as appealing as before.
"Flowering in multiple places" can't compete with the dominance of provincial capitals
Compared with whether the overall permanent resident population of a province is increasing or decreasing, what is more worthy of attention is: where on earth are these people going?
In provinces with an active economy and balanced development, the population is "flowering" in multiple cities; while in regions with a shrinking population, the provincial capital has almost become the only destination.
Zhejiang, a province with a strong private economy, is a typical example of the former. Comparing 2024 with 2020, all 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang have achieved an increase in permanent residents.
Among them, Hangzhou, known as the "City of Digital Economy", added 659,000 new permanent residents in four years, ranking first in the province. Ningbo and Wenzhou, whose permanent resident populations are about to enter the "tens of millions club", increased by 357,000 and 265,000 respectively. Even Zhoushan and Lishui, which are less well-known, have not fallen behind.
In Hunan, which has a similar population size to Zhejiang, the situation within the province is almost the opposite.
From 2020 to 2024, only Changsha saw an increase in permanent residents, with a net increase of 556,000 in four years. This internet-famous city with a pillar equipment manufacturing industry and well-known cultural and entertainment industries has become an ideal place for young people to work and live [7][8].
As for the other 13 cities and prefectures in Hunan, the permanent resident population has declined across the board. In large cities like Hengyang, Shaoyang, and Yongzhou, over 200,000 people left in four years.
Among them, many Hunanese are flowing to the young and vibrant Shenzhen. After all, with the numerous Hunanese restaurants on the streets and the Hunanese-accented workers, Shenzhen has long been jokingly called the "provincial capital outside Hunan" for Hunanese:
Going to Shenzhen is a perfect choice for Hunanese, just like having a canteen at the doorstep. Why would anyone go out of their way?
In fact, a population map like Hunan's, where the provincial capital stands out while other cities are losing a large number of people, is not uncommon in inland provinces.
We counted the proportion of the permanent resident population of 27 provincial capitals or autonomous region capitals in their respective provincial-level administrative regions in 2020 and 2024. We found that Xining in Qinghai, Yinchuan in Ningxia, and Changchun in Jilin ranked in the top three, each accommodating almost 40% of the province's permanent residents.
If we look at the changes in these four years, the attractiveness of provincial capitals in the Northeast, Central China, and some western provinces has significantly increased. Among them, Wuhan led all provincial capitals with a two-percentage-point increase, which may be related to the return of the population after the pandemic.
What is really surprising is Guiyang, which has long been underestimated. It ranked second in the increase in the proportion of the permanent resident population in the province in four years, and the number of new permanent residents reached 199,600, more than any other provincial capital [9].
However, there are also provincial capitals like Jinan that are not doing well. Not only has its population size been outnumbered by Qingdao for a long time, but it also often lags behind in terms of GDP and popularity. There is a popular saying: "Qingdao belongs to China, while Jinan belongs to Shandong" [10].
In addition, in coastal provinces like Jiangsu and Guangdong, due to multi-centered development, the siphoning effect of provincial capitals is not prominent. New first-tier cities like Suzhou and Foshan have almost the same increase in permanent residents as the provincial capitals from 2020 to 2024.
Industrial development boosts the central and western provinces
However, looking at the whole country, provincial capitals are still the destination for population flow in most provinces.
Especially in the central and western regions, some "honest kids" that were once underestimated are quietly rewriting the trajectory of population flow by relying on the strategy of strengthening provincial capitals and industrial breakthroughs.
This brings us to two typical overachievers, Anhui and Guizhou. One is "overtaking on a curve" with new energy vehicles, and the other is making a comeback with the big data industry.
As early as the beginning of the century, Anhui was a major labor-exporting province, and buses from various cities were almost running to the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta every day. However, in the decade after 2010, Anhui's permanent resident population not only stopped declining but also increased by 1.48 million, thanks to the rising automobile industry.
In 2010, Anhui's automobile production exceeded one million for the first time. Automobile companies such as Chery and Jianghuai began to take shape, filling the long-missing pillar industry.
Although the local automobile production and the number of employees declined from 2017 to 2019 due to the cyclical adjustment of the industry, with the second-phase production of NIO's Hefei plant and the establishment of BYD's industrial chain supporting facilities [11][12], Anhui quickly caught the "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" of the new energy vehicle industry. From 2021 to 2023 alone, the automobile manufacturing industry added nearly 100,000 new employees.
Not to mention the new opportunities in the industrial chain such as complete vehicles, auto parts, and lithium batteries. Behind the brightly lit workshops are a continuous stream of young laborers returning to their hometowns or moving in.
In contrast, Guizhou's turnaround seems more like a stroke of luck.
This southwestern mountainous region, where it rains frequently and the terrain is rough, was once one of the poorest areas, and few people who left the mountains were willing to come back.
The turning point came in 2013 when the "East Data, West Computing" strategy was launched, and various regions were competing for server locations. Guizhou unexpectedly became a "natural computer room" due to its cool climate, stable geology, and sufficient power supply [13]. Since then, data centers of China Mobile, Huawei, Apple iCloud, etc. have been successively established [14].
In 2023, Guizhou's software business revenue reached 85.1 billion yuan, nearly 14 times that of 2012. The number of employees in the industry has also increased from 25,000 to 42,000. Although the scale is still small, it is a breakthrough for a non-coastal and non-industrial mountainous province.
However, behind the growth, the problem of retaining talent has quietly emerged. After reaching a peak of 46,000 in 2021, the number of employees in the software industry has declined for two consecutive years, and by 2023, it has decreased by 4,000.
This is also the trouble that many internet-famous provincial capitals are facing. It is easy to attract talent in the early stage with policy dividends and industrial layout, but it is not so simple to make them stay.
The lack of job opportunities and single career paths are the first threshold for many young people coming here. In some provincial capitals, most of the available jobs are concentrated in outsourcing for large companies, sales, and customer service, which are neither well-paid nor offer much room for growth.
They once thought that they could escape from the highly competitive first-tier cities and head for a new destination that combines life and dreams. However, even without the pressure of high housing prices, long commutes, and high living costs, the reality is far from as beautiful as they imagined.
References
[1] National Bureau of Statistics. (2025). Annual data. Retrieved 03 July 2025 from https://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01.
[2] National Bureau of Statistics. (2025). Provincial annual data. Retrieved 03 July 2025 from https://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=E0103.
[3] Fei Taian. (2024). Promote the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era with high-quality population development. China Finance. Retrieved 03 July 2025 from https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6fdPJjc4w5nvd800YImUhg.
[4] Wang Binyan, Cheng Lisha, & Wang Shijun. (2018). A study on the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of population structure and mobility in Northeast China. Journal of Northeast Normal University (Natural Science Edition),