Mobile phone manufacturers are in the midst of a "race" for foldable screens.
To break the deadlock, manufacturers may need to let go of their obsession with parameters and first figure out: Who really needs a foldable phone screen? For most people, the unique value of foldable screens is still not clear enough. The technology is ready, but the demand has yet to break through.
At the beginning of July, Honor's new foldable phone, the Magic V5, created another miracle. Its thickness in the folded state is only 8.8 millimeters, breaking a record set by OPPO in February this year (the OPPO Find N5 has a thickness of only 8.93 millimeters), and becoming the thinnest foldable screen globally, approaching that of the mainstream bar - type model iPhone 16 Pro (with a thickness of 8.25 millimeters and a weight of 199 grams).
Meanwhile, with a body weight of 217 grams, this model ties with vivo's newly released X Fold5 as the lightest large - foldable phone globally.
Regarding the fierce competition among domestic foldable phones in terms of lightness and thinness, Jiang Bo, who is engaged in the mobile phone wholesale business in Huaqiangbei, said that winter is a crucial test season for foldable phones. Especially in Northeast China, the average temperature is usually around - 15°C to - 20°C, and it is common for the temperature to drop to - 25°C or even below - 30°C at night. When using a phone outdoors, the display screen becomes extremely brittle and prone to cracking. Some high - performance phone screens can withstand hammers and even bullets, but they struggle to endure low temperatures.
Last winter, "Harbin" became a hot topic on social media. Many tourists from other places liked to take pictures of the ice and snow world outdoors with their phones. At that moment, many foldable phone users immediately encountered problems. As soon as they opened their foldable screens to take pictures, they suddenly felt as if they were breaking the crispy outer layer of a pancake. In fact, this is a flaw in materials science. The lower the temperature, the more brittle the screen, especially for foldable screens.
Although brands like Samsung and OPPO claim that their foldable screens can withstand temperatures as low as - 20°C, they also warn users not to try it, as "accidents" are common.
In response, Jiang Bo told Lu Jiu Business Review: "As channel distributors, when promoting foldable phones, we rarely consider the design highlights and innovative technologies of these products. Instead, we focus more on the potential problems of foldable phones. Since we aim to achieve high sales volume, if customers are particularly sensitive to some product defects and we fail to make pre - judgments, we may end up with unsold inventory. Besides not promoting foldable phones in low - temperature areas, we also need to consider the issue of value retention, that is, how much is the phone worth after one year of use? It is estimated that the residual value rate of the Huawei Mate X5 after one year is less than 60%, and that of the Xiaomi Max Fold3 is less than 40%. Not only is it far inferior to Apple iPhones, but it is also worse than the Android bar - type flagship phones of the same period."
Actually, there is only one fundamental question for foldable phones: Is it worth having? Latecomers like Xiaomi have realized that the key to winning in the foldable phone market is not only to make a foldable phone better than a regular phone plus an iPad but also to inject some special added value.
01 Three Bottlenecks Facing Foldable Phones
Few people seriously think about a basic question: Why were foldable phones designed?
A former chief researcher at South Korea's Samsung gave an explanation: "About a decade ago, some large technology companies (such as Samsung) and startups (such as Royole) invested huge amounts of money to develop the world's thinnest and lightest flexible displays. After some companies achieved success, they suddenly found that flexible screens still needed to find a large - scale commercial market, otherwise, it would be difficult to recoup the R & D costs.
So, foldable phones and rollable TVs were quickly invented... As for whether phones need to be foldable or TVs need to be rollable, there was no time to think about it."
However, the industry often thinks this way: The main value of technology companies is not to meet existing market demands but to create consumer demands that people haven't thought of yet. For example, no one used to ask for an iPhone, but Apple designed it. Instead, it was Steve Jobs who led the design, then found someone to manufacture the product, and later had to educate the market. If the education failed, the company would go bankrupt; if it succeeded, it would achieve huge commercial returns.
Foldable phones were also designed first and then used to educate the market. Manufacturers usually label foldable phones as large - screen entertainment devices (more comfortable for watching dramas, reading e - books, and playing games) and mobile productivity tools (more convenient for reviewing PPT files and checking stock K - line charts)…
The key to making the business logic of foldable phones work is continuous upgrading and iteration, effectively solving various pain points in details, and finally being widely accepted by the mainstream market.
When foldable phones were first introduced, they were often criticized by users for obvious creases, fragile hinges, and poor software adaptation. However, after five years of iteration, foldable phones have shifted from being "concept - driven" to "value - driven": the hinge lifespan has exceeded 300,000 times, the creases are almost invisible, and the software adaptation has also kept up.
Data from iResearch shows that between 2021 and 2023, the average price of domestic foldable phones dropped from the 12,000 - yuan range to the 8,000 - yuan range. In 2025, foldable phones in the 6,000 - yuan range are everywhere. Behind this, the large - scale localization of the supply chain (such as BOE's UTG glass and the hinge 3D printing technology that reduces costs) has played a significant role.
In this regard, a friend who is engaged in mobile phone hardware R & D at Xiaomi told Lu Jiu Business Review: "For a long time, the R & D idea of foldable phones has followed the'supply - side' logic, mainly focusing on improving the performance of key materials and components and then streamlining the supply chain to reduce the overall price of the phone. People simply thought that as the products became cheaper and better, the demand market would naturally emerge. It was not until recent years that some 'demand - side' issues have really attracted attention because foldable phones are not a must - have. Just because they are cheaper and better doesn't mean people will definitely buy them."
It can even be said that even if a large number of foldable phones in the thousand - yuan range appear, the future will not necessarily belong to foldable phones because many people still think they are not useful or necessary.
Can the continuous improvement of product performance and cost - effectiveness bring about a substantial market transformation? It is still uncertain. Many obvious problems may not be the key points. So far, foldable phones still face three bottlenecks:
First, technological breakthrough does not equal demand matching. Large - foldable phones are regarded as productivity tools (more suitable for business documents and securities analysis), but most users still prefer to operate on the outer screen; small - foldable phones focus on fashion, but the clamshell design may not be practical.
Second, there is an embarrassing situation of scene mismatch. A Counterpoint survey shows that foldable phone users unfold their phones only 3.1 times a day on average, and 76% of consumers have never used the hover function. The usage frequency of split - screen operation is even lower than that of traditional tablet devices. In this case, the so - called "one phone with two uses" is actually not as good as the ordinary combination of a 200 - gram tablet and a 180 - gram phone.
Third, there is a crisis of the ineffectiveness of the identity label. When foldable phones fell from the altar of ten - thousand - yuan products, they failed to build an ecological moat like the iPhone. After users' sense of novelty fades, there are only complaints like "a work of art before purchase, a cheap phone after purchase."
To break the deadlock, manufacturers may need to let go of their obsession with parameters and first figure out: Who really needs a foldable phone screen? For most people, the unique value of foldable screens is still not clear enough. The technology is ready, but the demand has yet to break through.
02 How Can the Android Camp "Get a Head Start" on the Eve of Apple's Entry?
To date, foldable phones are no longer flashy. Features such as OPPO Find N3's "hover viewing," vivo X Fold5's 6000mAh large - capacity battery, and Huawei Mate X5's periscope telephoto lens prove that their practicality is no less than that of bar - type flagship phones. However, the industry still generally believes that "the popularization of foldable phones depends on Apple."
The product strength of domestic phones is not weak, but Apple's brand appeal is too strong. Even without relying on foldable phones, the sales of iPhones in the high - end market have never lost their popularity. In particular, Apple users have extremely high loyalty, and the ecological closed - loop of iOS + iCloud + AirPods makes the retention rate of users who switch phones exceed 90%.
Foldable phones are regarded as the last growth point in the mobile phone industry, and Apple users (high - spending and highly sticky) are the most ideal potential buyers. However, domestic manufacturers still have opportunities. Huawei has established itself in the high - end market through business scenarios, and vivo has opened up the female market with small - foldable phones, indicating that differentiated competition can still create opportunities.
Huawei: Technological Barriers + Scene Binding
In the foldable phone market, Huawei has successfully created the brand perception that "foldable phones = high - end business" with hardcore technologies such as triple - fold screens and satellite communication.
More importantly, Huawei can integrate into practical business scenarios, such as split - screen office work (displaying documents for comparison and translation on split screens, comparing and analyzing multi - table data, and even participating in two meetings simultaneously), and multi - angle hovering (adapting to video calls at different angles), making high - end users reluctant to go back to using other phones.
This precise positioning has achieved remarkable results. According to CINNO Research data, Huawei occupies 85% of the ten - thousand - yuan foldable phone market, truly achieving "first - mover advantage" in the market.
vivo: Redefining the User Portrait
While other manufacturers are still focusing on parameters, vivo has taken a different approach. In the early days, the X Flip series successfully tapped into the female market with three features that meet the essential needs of women: "selfie on the outer screen," "pet interaction," and "makeup mirror."
In June this year, the vivo X Fold5 features an extremely light and thin design of 217 grams, IPX9 + top - level three - proof protection, a 6000mAh long - lasting battery, a Zeiss triple - camera imaging system, and for the first time, supports interconnection with Apple devices such as the Apple Watch. Its delicate design better meets the needs of female users. This is a smart flanking battle, which can also be regarded as vivo's moment in the foldable phone market. In the tech circle dominated by men, understanding the needs of women can also lead to a breakthrough.
Is Xiaomi's "Cost - Effectiveness" Still Effective?
The Xiaomi MIX Flip 2 wins with a combination of comprehensive strength (such as performance, battery life, and crease control) and cost - effectiveness, which is a steady approach. It is still unclear what kind of amazing user experience Apple's foldable product will bring and whether it can reproduce the scenario where the iPad disrupted the industry. However, domestic brands still need to be prepared. When Apple really enters the market, there may not be a chance for a "second Huawei" to grow.
Yan Ru has participated in organizing several sessions of CEE Asia (Beijing International Consumer Electronics Exhibition) and has a deep understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of domestic foldable phones. She told Lu Jiu Business Review: "Foldable phones seem to have not reached a consensus on various details, that is, what the best design should be. In the long run, competing in terms of lightness, long battery life, and shallow creases is not sustainable. The era of competing in design may come soon. Overall, foldable phones have great innovation potential. For example, in the case of video bullet comments, in the past, with only one screen, bullet comments floated in the picture area, but with a foldable screen, this is no longer necessary. Slightly more complex, a foldable screen can enable multiple applications to be opened and used simultaneously, and one foldable phone may be equivalent to several laptops."
03 Can Xiaomi Achieve Success in the Foldable Phone Market with a Late - Entry Strategy?
iResearch predicts that in 2025, one out of every five high - end phones sold in China will be a foldable phone. Xiaomi is a latecomer and needs to compete from a higher starting point.
The market is concerned about three questions: First, did Xiaomi enter the market too late? Second, can Xiaomi's foldable phones really compete? Third, facing the possible entry of Apple into the market in 2026, will Xiaomi be too busy with its car - making business to focus on foldable phones? These three points will determine how far Xiaomi can go in the foldable phone market.
Did Xiaomi's Foldable Phones Arrive Late?
Huawei's first foldable phone, the Mate X, was launched in February 2019, while Xiaomi launched its first foldable phone, the MIX FOLD, in March 2021, two years later.
Currently, compared with Huawei's Mate X series, which has accumulated seven generations of technological upgrades in six years, Xiaomi's foldable phones have indeed missed the early stage of market education. However, Xiaomi avoided the early stage of technological trial - and - error (letting Samsung and Huawei bear the costs of trial - and - error in hinge technology and screen creases) and quickly entered the market after the supply chain matured.
Xiaomi has the confidence to price the 12 + 512 version (12GB of running memory + 512GB of internal storage) within the price range of mainstream bar - type flagship phones. By adopting a late - entry strategy, it has avoided the initial technological instability and high R & D costs.
Moreover, Xiaomi is better at following the "technology maturity curve" and turning cutting - edge technologies into mass - market consumer products, but it is still in the experimental stage in the foldable phone market. According to IDC data, Xiaomi's market share in the foldable phone market first increased and then decreased. It once briefly entered the top three in the domestic market but failed to maintain its position.
Xiaomi's Real Advantage Lies Not in Products or Ecosystem but in Methodology.
Nowadays, the hardware parameters of foldable phones from various brands are gradually becoming similar. How can Xiaomi break through? Some people think it can rely on the ecosystem and cost - effectiveness.
Xiaomi's senior management has mentioned a product logic several times, that is, all good products need to be iterated to maintain continuous competitiveness. Xiaomi's first - generation products often have a poor reputation. There is still a saying on the Internet that "don't buy the first - generation Xiaomi products." However, with innovative design and price advantages, Xiaomi can make a comeback.
In the book Field Notes on Xiaomi's Ecosystem, a "80% logic" is mentioned, which means that a new - generation product should retain 80% of the original functions (the most practical functions for the general public) and provide 10% - 20% of new features. This approach can not only increase sales but also save costs.
Xiaomi's foldable phone iteration follows the "80% logic." The first - generation MIX Fold had an average reputation due to issues such as creases and the outer - screen ratio, but it was supported by a price below ten thousand yuan and flagship - level configurations.
The following year, the MIX Fold 2 retained the core hinge technology (80%), focused on optimizing the thickness (10%), and reduced the thickness to 11.2mm, becoming the thinnest horizontal - foldable screen at that time. The third - generation continued the lightweight gene and upgraded the keel hinge (10% innovation). With its unique three - stage linkage hinge design, it can achieve free hovering from 45° to 135°.
By the time of the MIX Fold 4, on the basis of maintaining the reliability of the previous - generation hinge (80%), two - way satellite communication was added (20% difference). This iteration model ensures the continuity of the basic user experience and creates differentiated selling points through one or two key upgrades in each generation