The major reshuffle in the auto market in 2025: Some sell 2 million vehicles in half a year, while others are on the verge of being left behind.

Just over halfway through 2025, major automakers have submitted their "mid - year report cards."

This report card is like "half fire, half water," full of highlights. Some "academic superstars" are far ahead. For example, BYD and SAIC sold over 2 million vehicles in just half a year. In the well - known "new - force" camp, some are happy while others are worried. Leapmotor became the sales champion. XPeng and Xiaomi had impressive growth rates, Li Auto advanced steadily, while NIO faced considerable pressure.

What exactly happened in the Chinese auto market in the first half of 2025? By the end of the year, which automaker might be completely eliminated in the second half of the auto war?

01

Differentiation among New Forces: Leapmotor Tops, NIO in "Anxiety"

In this year's first - half "mid - term exam," the competition was extremely fierce. The leading "academic superstars" consolidated their advantages by continuously upgrading their "skill points," while the chasers tried to stage a comeback.

Undoubtedly, the top spot in the class still belongs to BYD. It sold a staggering 2.146 million vehicles in the first half of the year, a year - on - year increase of 33%. This achievement left all its competitors far behind.

However, even as powerful as BYD, it is not completely carefree in the domestic market. Geely is like a strong "deskmate," starting to "steal" BYD's share in some niche markets. Geely's sales in the first half of the year reached 1.41 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 47%, setting a new historical high. Especially in the new - energy vehicle segment, sales skyrocketed by 126% year - on - year. Due to its excellent performance, Geely even confidently raised its annual target to 3 million vehicles.

Sales and target completion rates of automakers in the first half of 2025 | Image source: Produced by GeekPark

In the competition among the new - force camp, the rankings can change in an instant.

The sales champion among new - force automakers in the first half of this year is Leapmotor. It delivered 221,700 vehicles in the first half, taking the top spot. Leapmotor's "killer move" is high - end configuration at a low price, offering technologies and configurations usually found in more expensive cars at a price in the 100,000 - yuan range.

Li Auto (203,800 vehicles) performed as steadily as ever, but its annual target completion rate was only 31.9%, indicating that although it sold a large number of vehicles, it still had a long way to go to reach its "small goal."

In contrast, XPeng (197,200 vehicles) staged a "comeback from the bottom" — In just half a year, its sales exceeded the total for the whole of 2024. It is also the only new - force automaker whose annual sales target completion rate exceeded half.

As a phenomenon - level internet celebrity, Xiaomi Auto continued its "top - stream" performance. In the first half of the year, Xiaomi delivered over 150,000 vehicles. In March, Lei Jun, the chairman and CEO of Xiaomi Group, announced that Xiaomi Auto's annual delivery target was raised from 300,000 to 350,000 vehicles, so the current completion rate is about 43%. At the end of June, the Xiaomi YU7 was officially launched, and the number of orders exceeded 289,000 in just one hour. Next, the test for Xiaomi remains its production capacity.

Of course, there are always students worried about their grades in the exam. Nearly half of the new - force brands have an annual target completion rate of less than 30%.

Hongmeng Zhixing (including brands like Wenjie and Zhijie) had a total sales volume of over 200,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, showing good strength. But embarrassingly, since its set annual target is as high as 1 million vehicles, the current completion rate is only 20%, making it the one with the "biggest gap between target and reality."

NIO delivered 114,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, with a target completion rate of 25.7%. Brands like Deepal (143,200 vehicles, 28.6% completion rate) and VOYAH (56,100 vehicles, 28% completion rate) also face severe challenges, and their sprint tasks in the second half of the year are extremely arduous.

In the Chinese auto market in the first half of 2025, there is no such thing as an "easy win." Even the champion faces "chasers," and even the "top - stream" Xiaomi is troubled by production capacity. Each brand is solving its own difficult problem.

02

The "Rocket" of New - Energy Vehicles Loses Speed

When it comes to the Chinese auto market, you must have heard the term "involution." But the core of involution is actually how new - energy vehicles "grab" the market share of fuel - powered vehicles?

Since 2020, the Chinese new - energy market seems to have suddenly opened its "acupoints," and its penetration rate soared from an unremarkable 5.8% to 47.2%. This speed far exceeded all experts' predictions. According to the original plan of relevant national departments, it would be good to reach 20% in 2025.

Just when everyone thought new - energy vehicles would easily break through 70% or 80%, their growth rate quietly slowed down. The latest data shows that although sales are still growing (a year - on - year increase of 32%), the "explosive" momentum seems to have weakened.

More interestingly, changes have also occurred within the new - energy vehicle family. Generally speaking, new - energy vehicles are mainly divided into two types: pure - electric vehicles (EVs), which only use batteries, have no engines, and need to be charged; plug - in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which have both engines and rechargeable batteries and can be refueled or charged (the so - called "extended - range" vehicles also belong to this category).

Li Auto verified the market feasibility of the extended - range route, and then many automakers began to follow | Image source: Visual China

In the past, it was the "plug - in hybrid electric vehicles" with engines that brought the largest growth. In 2024, the sales growth trend of plug - in hybrid models was extremely exaggerated, with a year - on - year increase of 76.9%, 54.3 percentage points higher than that of pure - electric models; plug - in hybrid models accounted for 42.1% of the total new - energy vehicle sales, a significant year - on - year increase of 8.6 percentage points.

But the new data this year shows that the trend has changed.

The data for June has not been released yet. In the first five months of this year, the retail sales of plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models were 1.69 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28%. In contrast, the sales of pure - electric vehicles were 2.662 million vehicles, with a year - on - year growth rate of 38.2%.

In addition to the power type, the consumption structure of the auto market is also undergoing great changes. The high - end market is "cooling down." The market share of high - priced vehicles above 300,000 yuan shrank from 15.1% last year to 10.8% this year. Both traditional luxury brands and high - end models of new - force automakers felt the chill.

In contrast, the affordable market is "heating up." The sales of models below 100,000 yuan soared by 51%.

Why did this "great shift" happen? The most important driving force behind it is the national "trade - in" subsidy policy.

The way this policy works is to "subsidize by vehicle" rather than "subsidize by price." That is to say, no matter how expensive the car you buy, the subsidy amount is fixed (for example, a subsidy of 20,000 yuan).

Let's do the math: If you buy a 300,000 - yuan car with a 20,000 - yuan subsidy, it's equivalent to a 9.3 - fold discount. But if you buy a 60,000 - yuan car with the same 20,000 - yuan subsidy, it's equivalent to a 6.7 - fold discount.

This discount is extremely attractive to price - sensitive consumers. With the double subsidies from the state and the manufacturer, many 60,000 - yuan electric cars can be taken home by consumers for just over 30,000 yuan. This has greatly stimulated the sales of low - priced electric vehicles.

03

Going Global 2.0: From "Product Export" to "Global Rooting"

If the domestic market is the "final battle arena" with fierce competition, then the overseas market is the "new continent" that Chinese automakers are exploring.

In 2023, the total export volume of Chinese automobiles reached 4.91 million vehicles, historically surpassing Japan, a veteran automobile - power country, and becoming the world's largest automobile exporter. Moreover, this momentum continues. In the first half of 2025, exports continued to grow. The most eye - catching was new - energy vehicles, with their export volume surging by 64.6% year - on - year, accounting for more than one - third of the total export volume.

Different from the domestic market where giants stand side by side, in the process of going global, there is a "hundred - flower - blooming" situation, and many brands have formed a mighty "expedition fleet."

Chery Automobile has always been an "academic superstar" in Chinese automobile exports. It exported 550,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, firmly holding the top position. SAIC Group is also a major exporter, selling nearly 500,000 vehicles in the first half of the year. BYD's overseas development can be described as "leap - forward." In just the past three years, BYD's overseas monthly sales soared from less than 10,000 vehicles to 90,000 vehicles in June this year.

BYD even formed its own transportation fleet for going global | Image source: Visual China

For these enterprises, the overseas market is no longer just "icing on the cake" but a "second growth curve" crucial for the future. In 2024, BYD even set a grand goal: to achieve tens of millions of sales in the future, with half of them overseas.

Meanwhile, Chinese automakers' going - global strategy is not limited to selling cars; they also need to "put down roots." In the past, Chinese automakers "exported products," which meant transporting cars produced in China to foreign countries by ship for sale.

Now, Chinese automakers are entering a new stage of "global rooting." What does this mean? It's no longer just about transportation but directly building factories overseas for production. This can not only reduce costs and avoid tariffs but also get closer to the local market.

In July 2025, the first car rolled off the production line at BYD's factory in Brazil. Meanwhile, Chinese brands such as BYD, SAIC, Great Wall, and GAC have built factories in Thailand one after another, using it as a production base to radiate the entire Southeast Asia. In Spain, Chery adopted a very smart method by directly taking over Nissan's old factory and quickly putting it into production, which saved precious time for it in the European market.

Meanwhile, not only automakers but also their "allies" — enterprises producing core components such as batteries and motors — are going overseas. Everyone goes to build factories overseas together to form a complete industrial chain. It's like an expeditionary force, with not only charging soldiers (automakers) but also powerful logistics and weapon supplies (component factories).

04

The Final Battle of AI: The Real "Arms Race" Has Begun

If the competition in the first half of the Chinese new - energy vehicle market was about batteries, range, and price, then the core of the second half is just one word: AI. This is no longer just an added bonus but a "core variable" that determines the survival of an automaker.

Now, if you still think these companies are just building car bodies and wheels, you're out of date. They are scrambling to tear off the label of "automobile factory" and put on a new business card of "AI company."

XPeng Motors shouted in 2024 that it would transform into an "AI car company" and released a grand AI system including AI chips, large AI models, and flying cars. Li Xiang, the founder of Li Auto, also said bluntly, "Li Auto is not an automobile enterprise but an artificial - intelligence enterprise." Even a traditional giant like Geely announced high - profile in 2025 that it would "become the No. 1 AI - powered automaker."

From new - force automakers to established giants, everyone realizes that in the future, cars will essentially be "artificial - intelligence robots on four wheels."

However, an interesting phenomenon is that at the beginning of this year, automakers couldn't wait to promote "intelligent driving for all" every day. But due to a "black - swan" incident, they instead maintained a certain degree of "silence" about intelligent driving and even deliberately weakened their promotion.

Did they give up? On the contrary.

This shows that the technological competition in intelligent driving has entered the "deep water area." This is no longer a stage where problems can be solved by holding press conferences and shouting slogans. It's a time when huge amounts of funds and top - notch talents need to be invested for "stealthy efforts." The industry believes that assisted driving has entered a "ten - fold speed" technological breakthrough period, and the real turning point is coming.

This AI arms race mainly unfolds in two aspects. One is to move towards real autonomous driving. This is the ultimate dream of all players. Yu Kai, the founder of Horizon Robotics, once predicted:

Within three years, achieve Hands Off (driving without hands on the steering wheel) in scenarios such as highways.

Within five years, achieve Eyes Off (driving without constantly watching the road), as the vehicle is highly intelligent.

Within ten years, achieve Minds Off (driving at will), where you can tell the vehicle your destination and then sleep or work while the vehicle drives completely autonomously.