Smart Money | The AI Industrialization Rush! How does the STAR Market lock in the “golden track” of hardcore technology?
Author | Yifan Yan
Editor | Yida Huang
In the context of the rapid iteration of technology, artificial intelligence is gradually accelerating its penetration from the laboratory to the application field. As the "frontier testing ground" for cultivating hard - tech enterprises in China, the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) has become the focus of the capital market due to its incubation and support for technology innovation enterprises, and has recently attracted the attention of many investors. Amid the upsurge of the AI concept, how to accurately identify the truly potential investment opportunities has become a core issue that investors urgently need to solve.
On June 25th, 36Kr held a special live - streaming session together with Hong Luping, the Chief Training Officer of the Investor Relations Department of Bosera Fund Management Co., Ltd., and Li Qingyang, the fund manager of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department, to jointly analyze the new opportunities in the STAR Market.
Analysis of AI's Critical Breakthrough and Fluctuations in the STAR Market
The current AI market is at a critical juncture of technological iteration. The upcoming GPT - 5 to be released by OpenAI is expected to achieve breakthroughs in multi - modal understanding and real - time learning capabilities, pushing AI from "reasoning" to "action" and stimulating a blowout growth in computing power demand. Favorable policies are also being continuously released. Especially with the dual support of the "Artificial Intelligence +" policy and hardware innovation, the intelligent transformation of various industries is accelerating and deepening.
However, in the secondary market, the volatility of the AI sector has intensified after entering the earnings season and has entered a short - term shock stage. This is mainly affected by external factors such as the US tariff policy, coupled with the short - term tilt of funds towards sectors such as innovative drugs. The restart of the subsequent growth momentum of the AI sector may require the catalysis of major events.
The recent significant fluctuations in the STAR Market are essentially a game between market sentiment and long - term logic. Taking the capital aspect as an observation window, the inherent high - elasticity characteristic of the AI sector makes it extremely sensitive to the flow of funds. With the spread of hotspots in traditional industries and the strong attractiveness of high - dividend assets to funds in recent years, these are the main reasons for intensifying the recent adjustment of technology stocks. Although policies such as the 15 Measures for Science and Technology Finance are beneficial in the long term, they have also led to some over - expectation.
It should be clear that the core driving factors supporting the long - term strength of the STAR Market have not wavered. That is, the domestic substitution in hard - tech fields such as semiconductors, AI, and robotics is still being continuously promoted. Policy dividends such as the National Semiconductor Industry Fund and AI special plans are continuously increasing, coupled with the expansion of STAR Market ETFs, which have built a solid foundation for the development of the technology industry.
Therefore, the current market fluctuations mainly reflect short - term concerns about the tightening of liquidity. Against the background that the main line of hard - tech autonomy remains unchanged, short - term adjustments may instead create opportunities for long - term allocation.
Policy Empowerment: Remodeling the Hard - Tech Ecosystem
The "1+6" new policy of the STAR Market systematically reconstructs the growth ecosystem of hard - tech enterprises by establishing a science and technology innovation growth layer. On the financing side, a targeted capital increase mechanism for old shareholders has been established, and the fifth set of listing standards has been extended to cutting - edge fields such as AI and commercial aerospace, effectively solving the problem of possible interruption of R & D funds for technology enterprises. In terms of valuation logic, professional institutional review references are introduced to reshape the valuation anchor point, and the IPO pre - review mechanism allows for the confidential submission of materials, effectively protecting the security of enterprises' core technologies.
In terms of industrial ecosystem construction, efforts are made to improve the efficiency of R & D results transformation, optimize the rules for refinancing and mergers and acquisitions, and promote enterprises to transform from relying on external "blood transfusion" to enhancing their own "hematopoietic" ability. In the dimension of risk control, while maintaining market inclusiveness, the new policy strengthens investor protection, mandatorily requires unprofitable enterprises to fully disclose risks, and establishes a "blacklist" system for interest transfer. This round of reform marks that the capital market's value judgment of technology enterprises is shifting from simple "profit certainty" to paying more attention to "technology scarcity", continuously strengthening the core competitiveness of enterprises.
Against the background of the white - hot global AI competition, domestic enterprises are facing a complex situation of "opportunities in crisis". The pressure of technological blockade is forcing the acceleration of the independent substitution process in core fields such as computing power and chips. The full - cycle support system constructed by policies to assist the STAR Market forms a moat. The differentiated paths being explored by AI enterprises include: models such as DeepSeek improve algorithm efficiency with lower training costs, and the commercialization progress of vertical scenarios such as the installation volume of industrial robots, autonomous driving, and medical AI has achieved global leadership. This "cost control + scenario deep - cultivation" model enables domestic enterprises to have the potential to cultivate hidden champions in niche fields and is expected to open up new paths for international competition by seizing the window period of domestic substitution.
Digging for Gold in the STAR Market: Decoding New Valuations and New Tracks
To value enterprises on the STAR Market, it is necessary to break through the traditional PE/PB valuation framework and establish a dynamic valuation system. In the start - up period, attention should be focused on the depth and breadth of patent barriers; in the growth period, key indicators such as revenue growth rate and order backlog rate should be emphasized; in the mature period, R & D transformation efficiency and cash - flow status should be examined. Technological barriers can be measured by quantitative indicators such as the proportion of R & D expenses, the intensity of policy support needs to be analyzed from multiple dimensions such as industrial fund investment, and the speed of scenario implementation is related to the actual progress of commercialization.
Generally speaking, the current valuations of the STAR Market show obvious structural differentiation. Although the static valuation (such as PE) level is not low, it is generally supported by high growth potential.
The AI industry chain is currently in a stage of high R & D investment, and the profit cycle is relatively lagging. In the future, valuation support mainly comes from three aspects: continuous policy empowerment, the accelerated increase in AI application penetration rate, and the optimization of the market structure through the expansion of the STAR Market index. Suppressing factors include high sensitivity to changes in liquidity, pressure to deliver performance, and potential overseas sanctions risks. Therefore, at the strategic level, investors need to exchange "capital patience" for potential "technological compound interest".
In terms of emerging track layout, multiple fields are showing vitality: The biomedical field is encountering opportunities with clinical breakthroughs in cell/gene therapies and the opening up of the domestic substitution space for high - end medical equipment; the commercial aerospace field is booming due to the scarcity of low - orbit satellite resources with the "first - come, first - served" principle, and reusable rocket technology is significantly reducing launch costs; the low - altitude economy is becoming a reality with the pilot of manned aircraft and the large - scale development of drone logistics; the new materials field is building a solid industrial foundation through the iteration of new energy batteries and the domestic substitution of semiconductor photoresists. These tracks combine technological scarcity and strong policy support and are expected to become new market hotspots to succeed AI.
Accelerating Industrialization: From Chip Substitution to Scenario Implementation
The competitive landscape in the segmented fields of AI has shown obvious differentiation. In the chip design link, leading enterprises are establishing their leading advantages with the dual standards of "computing power + energy efficiency". The algorithm technology of large models is approaching the international top level, and commercialization is achieved through B - end services. The systematic support of the AI industry by domestic chip substitution is the core investment logic. At the same time, in terms of security and autonomy, self - developed chips should avoid the risk of supply chain disruption.
The application end of AI is still in a chaotic period. Fragmented demand leads to an unstable profit model, and the weak open - source ecosystem in the tool - chain link restricts industrialization efficiency. The industry will undergo a reshuffle of "hardware standardization - algorithm stratification - application head - concentration". Investors can first focus on the hardware and algorithm links with a relatively clear competitive landscape and closely track the marginal changes at the application end.
In terms of industrial collaboration, giants such as Alibaba and Tencent have launched computing power leasing services, significantly lowering the application threshold for small and medium - sized enterprises; the annual growth rate of edge AI chips is as high as 45%, effectively promoting scenario implementation. This substitution is not simply a technical replacement but a revolutionary ecological reconstruction, helping China transform from a computing power importer to a rule - maker.
The closed - loop business models driven by AI are gradually taking shape in multiple fields: In the medical and health field, AI diagnosis and drug R & D form a virtuous cycle of "technology - payment - data"; in the manufacturing industry, the high accuracy rate of 99.8% in industrial quality inspection brings a cost - saving benefit of tens of millions of yuan per production line per year, forming a rigid driving force; in the financial industry, relying on the collaboration of AI risk control and regulatory technology, a sustainable development path is constructed; in the education field, the "hardware + membership" model opens up new scenarios in quality education and vocational education.
The common characteristics of these industries are rigid demand, clear policy orientation, and quantifiable investment returns, so they have become the vanguard positions for AI commercialization.
Risks and Opportunities Coexist: Allocation Strategy for AI on the STAR Market
There is a distinct differentiation in risk and return between traditional industries and AI on the STAR Market: The former is dominated by the macro - economic cycle, with a volatility of about 20% and stable cash - flow, suitable for defensive investors; the latter has a volatility of up to 40%, with a lagging profit but driven by technological breakthroughs, suitable for growth - oriented investors who can bear risks.
The commercial satellite industry, as a strategic track, shows great potential with the scarcity of low - orbit satellite resources, the significant cost reduction of reusable rockets, and the explosion of emerging scenarios such as direct satellite - to - mobile phone connection. Tracking the CSI Satellite Industry Index can bet on China's leap from "experimental satellites" to "global networking", with significant long - term allocation value.
In terms of investment strategy, investors with a high risk preference can capture the overall industry dividends by allocating STAR Market AI index funds. When investing in individual stocks, risk prevention should run through the entire investment process. Be vigilant against concept speculation divorced from fundamentals, focus on the number of patents, order traceability, and valuation matching of enterprises, and deal with high - volatility characteristics through diversified asset allocation and a long - term perspective. Only by deeply understanding the essential logic of "technology innovation - driven" of the STAR Market can investors seize the dividends given by the era in the wave of industrial transformation.
Relatively conservative investors can adopt the "core + satellite" allocation strategy, that is, allocate high - dividend stocks or bonds as core assets to stabilize cash - flow. The "satellite" position can be paired with assets such as gold that have a low correlation with the stock market, and reserve 10% - 20% of cash to seize the opportunity to add positions in a volatile market. In a highly volatile market, adopting a fixed - investment or grid trading strategy can help avoid timing risks.
*Disclaimer:
The content of this article only represents the author's views.
The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. In any case, the information in this article or the opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice to anyone. Before making an investment decision, if necessary, investors must consult professionals and make decisions carefully. We have no intention to provide underwriting services or any services that require specific qualifications or licenses for all parties in the transaction.