In China, the good days of the Model Y are over.

Last week, Xiaomi shook up the entire Chinese automotive industry like a storm. The YU7, priced from 253,500 yuan, received 200,000 firm orders in just 3 minutes, 289,000 in 1 hour, and 240,000 locked orders in 18 hours...

It's just too exaggerated. Really, way too exaggerated.

Little did people know that over the past weekend, at the Xiaomi store in the Lujiazui Mall in Shanghai's Changning District, the number of people coming to learn about the YU7 was simply overwhelming. Let me put it this way, have you ever seen a car brand where people have to queue up and wait for a test - drive?

I also had conversations with several consumers and found that they came from all walks of life. There were the so - called "young Mi fans", potential customers who were planning to buy a pure - electric SUV and were attracted by its cost - effectiveness, and even traditional fuel - vehicle owners in their 50s or older who had never been in contact with new - energy products before.

In short, the YU7 has definitely broken through the niche market.

To be objective, the only obstacle preventing it from further dominating the market seems to be limited production capacity. By opening the official Xiaomi Auto APP, you can find that for the "standard version", which has the highest selection ratio among immediate orders, the delivery cycle has reached 56 - 59 weeks and shows a trend of further extension. In other words, customers have to wait for more than a year.

Such a long waiting time will definitely discourage some users.

However, as the manufacturing end speeds up continuously, the YU7, which is bound to be a hit, is single - handedly changing the long - standing and somewhat rigid pattern of the mid - size pure - electric SUV market. All players in this market will surely be affected to a certain extent.

Especially the protagonist of today's article, the refreshed Model Y. Borrowing the words of a friend around me, "In China, its good days are over."

There are definitely multiple reasons behind this.

Under siege, it will surely fall

Actually, since around the year before last, domestic mid - size pure - electric SUVs, labeled as the "killers of Model Y", have been continuously emerging on the stage.

However, most of them were just making small efforts, and few could pose a threat to the position of the Model Y.

In 2024, this recognized industry benchmark sold over 480,000 new cars in the Chinese market and even won the sales championship of a single model without any modifiers.

For a while, it was extremely popular and envied by everyone. But the crisis was also quietly emerging.

More specifically, even though the Model Y has the strongest competitiveness and appeal, as the besiegers continue to improve themselves and their numbers grow explosively, it will eventually be nibbled away bit by bit.

In addition, in 2025, Tesla launched the refreshed Model Y and raised the price with confidence, which gave the covetous domestic SUVs an opportunity, and they immediately launched a more ferocious attack.

Looking at the results of the first five months, the retail sales of the Model Y in China were only 25,694, 8,006, 48,189, 19,984, and 24,770 respectively, all showing a significant year - on - year decline.

Take May last year as an example. The retail sales were 39,985, and this year it was more than 13,000 less.

Whether you admit it or not, the pack - hunting strategy is gradually taking effect. The YU7, which entered the market on June 26th Beijing time, is like the real "alpha wolf" of domestic pure - electric SUVs, leading the group to howl menacingly at the Model Y.

At the press conference, when Lei Jun "paid tribute while making comparisons" with a hidden agenda, one could clearly feel his great ambition and determination to overthrow the Model Y.

Assuming that the locked - order volume of the YU7 currently exceeds 300,000, even considering that some orders may be lost due to the long delivery cycle, thanks to the huge base, it still has the absolute confidence to challenge Tesla.

The subtext is, "I have stronger brand appeal, better comprehensive parameter configuration, higher cost - effectiveness, and a more influential founder than you. Why can't I outsell you?"

Moreover, looking at the mid - size pure - electric sedan market, the SU7's decisive victory over the Model 3 is obvious. In May, the former had a retail sales volume of 28,013, while the latter only had 13,818.

A simple calculation shows a gap of nearly 15,000 units, and the outcome is clear.

Meanwhile, after the YU7, the XPeng G7 will enter the market this week. In the fourth quarter, there will be the Li Auto i6, which is vying to "divide the market" with the Model Y and the YU7.

In August, the L90, to be launched by NIO's second brand, LeDao, is expected to be priced around 250,000 yuan after adopting the BaaS battery - vehicle separation plan.

In short, the size of the "pack" is still expanding rapidly.

This is not an exaggeration. The protagonist of today's article is facing the worst survival environment since its localization in China. As the subtitle of this paragraph says, "Under siege, it will surely fall" is almost a foregone conclusion.

The only question now is: How much will its sales decline?

Personally, I conservatively estimate a monthly decrease of 10,000 - 15,000 units. As for this year, it may be difficult for the cumulative sales to reach 350,000 units.

Slow iteration, self - inflicted consequences

"A Model Y left Tesla's Gigafactory in Texas, drove for 30 minutes, and finally safely arrived at the customer's doorstep and was delivered to the new owner. There was no driver and no remote control throughout the journey, and the maximum speed reached 115 km/h. Tesla always surpasses imagination with disruptive innovation."

Last week, such a post appeared on the official Weibo account of this American new - energy vehicle company.

The matching video showed the entire process of the autonomous and unmanned delivery of the protagonist of today's article. To be fair, it was really cool, full of a strong sense of technology, and demonstrated Tesla's deep reserves in intelligent driving.

However, below the post, I also saw a netizen's repost and comment, "So, what I get is a second - hand car that has already run 200 kilometers?"

It made me burst out laughing. At the same time, I realized that what this American new - energy vehicle company is promoting doesn't really concern ordinary Chinese consumers.

Looking back over the past year, Tesla has spent a lot of effort on promoting concepts like Robotaxi, embodied robots, and supercomputers. Due to various reasons such as regulatory implementation, these are still far from our daily lives.

On the contrary, in many aspects that test its "core competitiveness" in China, its iteration speed has fallen short of expectations.

Therefore, taking the protagonist of today's article as an example and making a horizontal comparison with domestic mid - size pure - electric SUVs, which are in extremely fierce competition and often have annual updates as significant as full - fledged model changes, the "incremental" upgrade of the refreshed Model Y this year seems particularly insincere.

In Tesla's product - launch logic, the whole world should move forward at the same pace.

However, the problem is that the intensity of competition in the Chinese automotive market is far higher than in any other segment. Forcing a unified pace will only lead to self - inflicted consequences.

Also, take Tesla's once - proud self - built charging system and fully direct - sales channels as an example. In China, they no longer have an absolute leading advantage.

Both the service experience and process efficiency seem to have stagnated and have been caught up by many domestic brands.

In summary, "being out of touch" and "lack of focus" are the root causes.

In March this year, there was news that Tesla was developing a "low - cost Model Y", led by its Chinese R & D team, aiming to control costs by streamlining configurations while retaining the core functions such as the battery, power system, and chassis of the current model.

The launch time of the new car has not been determined, and the release schedule will depend on the sales performance of the refreshed Model Y. If the sales do not meet expectations, the "low - cost Model Y" may be launched earlier in the second half of the year.

It seems that "this American new - energy vehicle company has recognized the problem." But after careful consideration, this product is more of a temporary solution. In contrast, to boost sales, they have to adjust the price of the "refreshed version".

To put it simply, they should hurry up and officially cut the price.

However, the embarrassing part is that according to Tesla's first - quarter financial report, its crucial gross profit margin has fallen below the 20% mark to 16%. In other words, although there is a solution, the room for maneuver is very limited.

The YU7, priced from 253,500 yuan, is exactly 10,000 yuan cheaper than the entry - level version of the refreshed Model Y. Such a precise strike gives a feeling of "striking when one is down".

As this article is coming to an end, I'd like to say: "We all know that the Chinese market is extremely important to Tesla. But now, the good days of the protagonist of today's article are over, and the worst is yet to come. Next year and the year after will be the real battle for survival."

Hunting the Model Y will always be the main theme.

Just yesterday, Tesla launched its first wave of promotional policies for the second half of the year, but overall, they didn't show much sincerity.

Some models of the Model 3 even had price increases. Is this the so - called "buying on the upswing and avoiding the downswing"? Is this the counter - attack against the YU7?

It's really confusing...

This article is from the WeChat official account "Automotive Commune" (ID: iAUTO2010), author: Cui Liwen, published by 36Kr with authorization.