Jing Tao from Davor Venture Capital: In at most three years, China's AI will catch up with and even surpass that of the United States.

At the end of 2022, ChatGPT was launched, changing the trajectory of the global technology industry.

Jing Tao, the founder of Dawu Venture Capital, felt a twinge of unease. He asked Ma Huateng, his former leader at Tencent, "Is China falling behind in AI?" Ma Huateng told him, "It doesn't matter. Once they develop it, it will be shared by all mankind."

Soon, startups centered around large language models blossomed in both China and the United States. Jing Tao was cautious and didn't rush into investment. He was worried that with technological iterations, there would be a "cost collapse" - projects invested in at high prices in the early stage might be crushed by later entrants. Today, "the cooling of the large model industry has largely confirmed his concerns."

Jing Tao was an early employee at Tencent and has witnessed the explosive growth of China's internet and mobile internet. He knows that the AI industry is still in its very early stage, and the technology is evolving rapidly. The current leaders might only be transitional, and the real champions are yet to emerge.

Dawu Venture Capital was founded in 2017 and mainly invests in commercial space, new materials, semiconductors, AI, low - altitude economy, and startup services.

In the field of commercial space, Dawu Venture Capital not only bet on SpaceX but also discovered domestic companies such as Galaxy Power and Lingkong Tianxing at a very early stage. This foresight has also brought huge returns to Dawu Venture Capital. In the semiconductor field, Dawu Venture Capital invested in Black Sesame Intelligence, breaking NVIDIA's monopoly in automotive - grade chips.

In the AI field, he believes that the scenario of "learning, following, and surpassing" that occurred in the internet and mobile internet fields will be repeated. "China has 200 million middle - class people and 240 million practitioners with higher education or vocational education. The amount of data they generate far exceeds that of Europe and the United States. Once AI applications are rapidly popularized, China may achieve a lead in 3 - 5 years."

Compared with their predecessors, the biggest advantage of AI entrepreneurs is that they are in a technological environment where "the public has been enlightened": products can obtain precise users through charging from the very beginning. In the AI field, Jing Tao is optimistic about the huge business opportunities brought by the combination of AI and data mining.

Recently, Jing Tao also joined the investor lineup of Global AI, which is an ultra - early - stage investment acceleration platform for global AI application entrepreneurs, aiming to promote the arrival of the era of "one - person AI unicorns".

Disclaimer: The interviewee has confirmed that the information in the article is true and accurate. Pencil News is willing to endorse the content.

AI Investment: Most Afraid of Cost Collapse

Pencil News: Since the launch of ChatGPT, how many changes have there been in the entrepreneurial opportunities in the AI track?

Jing Tao: When ChatGPT came out, I was a bit panicked. After the Spring Festival in 2023, I found Ma Huateng and asked him what to do. I wondered if we were falling behind. He said it didn't matter, and once they developed it, it would be shared by all mankind. His words reassured me. What he meant was that "in the past, we chased after the United States in the internet field, copying their models to China, but later we surpassed the United States in many areas."

As an investor, I didn't know how to invest at that time. Large models were everywhere, and investments often reached millions of dollars without any significant results, just like the internet bubble around 2000. Money was being burned like paper. We adopted a cautious attitude, closely monitored the situation but didn't make any investments, especially in large models. We couldn't afford to invest. Most of our peers were also cautious, paying close attention but making few investments.

Pencil News: What are the reasons for everyone's caution?

Jing Tao: We are afraid of "cost collapse". For example, if you buy a car for 300,000 yuan, its price may drop to 180,000 yuan a few months later, and then to 120,000 yuan or even tens of thousands of yuan after a few more months. The same goes for investment. AI iterates rapidly. "Projects invested in at high prices in the early stage may be crushed by later entrants, resulting in a complete loss of capital."

One hundred million yuan in 2022 is not much different from one hundred million yuan in 2025, but if you invest wrongly, it's gone. So we are not radical and value our money. Many investment institutions think the same way.

Pencil News: Which AI projects are you willing to invest in?

Jing Tao: The core is "to meet user needs". Many AI products are fabricated without in - depth research on real - life needs. Just like Lei Jun and Jack Ma in the early days, they chased after users to understand their needs. Today's AI entrepreneurs should focus on the real - life experience of products, which was the key to the success of the internet and is still important today.

Pencil News: How can entrepreneurs address real - life needs and truly combine AI applications with pain points in different scenarios?

Jing Tao: Entrepreneurs must embrace and integrate into life. Don't think of yourself as an "introvert".

If there is a war and you need to go to the battlefield, can you say, "I'm an introvert, so I won't go"? Work involves contacting users. "Whether you are an introvert (I - type) or an extrovert (E - type), the product is ultimately for them to use." Without communicating with users, it's impossible to create a good product.

All the answers are on - site. If you want to develop a good product, go and interact with ordinary people; if you want to set a good price and position your product in the market, communicate with customers and industry experts. You can't develop products in isolation.

When I meet people working on intelligent agents, I always ask, "How many people have you talked to? Have you met 500 people? At least 300?" But many people think it's enough after talking to 30 people.

Jing Tao, the founder of Dawu Venture Capital

"I'm Optimistic about This Niche Industry"

Pencil News: How do you view the difficulties faced by AI companies and products in the commercialization process?

Jing Tao: I don't think this is a real difficulty because commercialization has not really started yet.

The vast majority of people have only heard of artificial intelligence, but it will take time for it to be truly applied in company operations, work scenarios, and even daily life.

Especially in China, with its complex population structure, such seemingly "high - end" things will inevitably first be initiated and applied among high - end groups and then gradually spread downwards. So, currently, it's not a difficulty but a stage where everyone is exploring the path.

Pencil News: How should AI application startups build a commercial closed - loop?

Jing Tao: This is essentially a philosophical question about life.

In the early days of the internet, services were free because it was necessary to cultivate user awareness. At that time, there were few internet users and few products, so the only way to make money was through B2B advertising.

However, the so - called "free" later turned out to be a trap: in the mobile internet era, users were gradually guided to pay because they couldn't solve their problems without paying - "The free things are the most expensive."

But now, in the era of artificial intelligence, "the public has been enlightened", and everyone knows that there is no free lunch. "Free services will only attract 'freeloaders' who will never pay."

So, a good product should charge from the very beginning, using price as a filter. Charge 150 yuan to screen out users with the ability to pay 150 yuan; charge 15,000 yuan to screen out users with the corresponding payment ability.

If a product doesn't have this characteristic, keep refining it. Don't blindly invest in advertising, or you may easily face a cash - flow crisis. If users are only attracted by advertising rather than actively using the product, it will be difficult to sustain the business in the long run.

Pencil News: Are there any AI - plus industries that you are particularly optimistic about?

Jing Tao: I'm particularly optimistic about a "niche industry" - the "data mining" industry.

In the AI era, there is "a lot of value to be mined" here. In the past, data mining was mainly carried out by the media and professional institutions. But in the AI era, with different technological levels, ordinary units, enterprises, and entrepreneurs can also enjoy professional data mining services. I've been paying attention to relevant companies recently. Some of them are not well - known, but their valuations are already quite high, and the work they do is very valuable.

These companies can be divided into two camps. For example, AlphaSense in the United States really uses AI technology, while many domestic companies rely on experienced professional data miners.

In China, the two approaches need to be combined. Because large AI models often have "hallucinations". Without relevant corpora, they will talk nonsense. Data mining cannot tolerate false information. In scenarios such as investment and mergers and acquisitions, hallucinated data can be fatal.

So, in China, data mining may need to be "human - first, machine - second" or "human - dominated, machine - assisted".

Pencil News: What are the possible implementation scenarios for AI - plus data mining?

Jing Tao: Currently, it may be implemented in conventional fields such as technology, finance, culture and tourism, and agriculture.

Pencil News: What impact does DeepSeek have on AI application startups?

Jing Tao: First of all, it brings confidence.

Before the emergence of DeepSeek, the domestic industrial circle was worried about the AI gap between China and the United States. But its appearance made entrepreneurs realize that at least in some fields, China's AI is not inferior to that of the United States. This is similar to how the gap between China and the United States in the internet field was shortened from more than a year to half a year and was eventually surpassed by China.

Currently, some people think that the AI gap between China and the United States is about 3 - 5 months. Although there is still a gap in some fields, based on China's internet development history, I am optimistic that within at most three years, China's AI may catch up with or even surpass that of the United States.

The core advantage lies in users. China has 200 million middle - class people and 240 million practitioners with higher education or vocational education. The amount of data they generate far exceeds that of Europe and the United States. Once AI applications are rapidly popularized, China may achieve a lead in 3 - 5 years.

Opportunities in Commercial Space and Semiconductors

Pencil News: What's your view on the popular humanoid robots?

Jing Tao: The real era of humanoid robots "has not arrived" yet.

There are two main reasons for being optimistic about them. Firstly, it is related to people's inherent perception of robots. When people think of robots, the image of a humanoid often comes to mind.

When humanoid robots have the ability to solve practical problems, they will have value. Currently, they can at least provide emotional value, such as dancing and singing. As for tasks like serving water and cooking, I think it's just a matter of time, and technically, it's not difficult.

Secondly, humanoid robots have a first - mover advantage in social popularization.

This advantage is manifested in many aspects. For example, daily necessities such as elevators and cars are all designed according to the human form. It's not realistic to change these designs. Humanoid robots can easily integrate into the existing environment without the need for special modifications to existing facilities. From this perspective, the application cost of humanoid robots may be lower.

Pencil News: Why were you confident in commercial space at an early stage?

Jing Tao: We invested in commercial space not only out of passion but also because we saw some trends.

Just as the economy needs new growth points, the low - altitude economy, the silver - haired economy, humanoid robots, and AI agents are all such points. Commercial space at that time was also such an opportunity. The commercial space industry in the United States started in 1986, while in China, it started around 2015 or 2016 (depending on different definitions). We are about 30 years behind the United States, but this lag also means opportunities.

In 2017, when we invested in SpaceX, we saw the real - world development of commercial space and judged that similar development would occur in China. Although it can't be compared with that in the United States, domestic enterprises can develop together. Different directions such as rockets and satellites may be advanced by multiple companies. Considering China's overall development rhythm, the commercial space industry will surely develop.

When we invested in Galaxy Power in 2020, through due diligence, we found that government - related agencies, central state - owned enterprises, and state - owned enterprises are responsible for exploring the vast universe, while simple and repetitive tasks such as launching rockets and sending satellites into orbit will be handed over to market - oriented commercial space companies.

The country hopes to concentrate its efforts on deep - space exploration in this way, while reducing costs and improving efficiency. It also encourages outstanding talents to leave the system and give it a try.

We knew that the domestic commercial space industry would surely thrive. However, choosing the right investment targets is quite a skill. At that time, there were companies like Landspace, Galaxy Power, Tianbing, and Orient in the commercial space field. Our investment philosophy is to choose people with similar ideas to ours.

For example, Liu Baiqi is a product - oriented talent who is fully committed to work; Shan Jizhang of Black Sesame Intelligence, which we invested in, is an engineer and only talks about products and semiconductors during communication; the founder of the cell - therapy company we invested in is a world - class scientist who is only focused on scientific research and even doesn't drink to protect his brain. We choose down - to - earth and dedicated entrepreneurs.

When investing in SpaceX, there were different opinions within the company. My partner wanted to invest, and I opposed it. Finally, we reached a compromise and decided to invest but reduce the investment amount.

In the investment field, there is the "power - law rule", which means that a few projects bring the vast majority of returns. Currently, our investment returns in commercial space have basically covered all the investment funds. The commercial space industry will be the main track that we continue to focus on.

Pencil News: If one wants to enter the commercial space field now, which sub - directions have opportunities?

Jing Tao: There are three directions:

- Payload: There are market opportunities;

- Rocket/satellite supporting equipment and new materials: There is a strong demand for technological iteration;

- Commercial space services: The supporting service field around the industrial chain.

Pencil News: What are the criteria for Dawu Venture Capital to judge good semiconductor projects? What impact does AI have on the semiconductor industrial chain?

Jing Tao: "The semiconductor industry is a cruel one, with high investment, high risk, and low profit." Even before the Sino - US competition, this industry was quite difficult. However, "there are still opportunities for top - notch projects."

A good project needs to meet three criteria:

Firstly, absolute technological strength: Without core technology, a company cannot survive;

Secondly, stable orders: A company without commercialization ability will eventually fail;

Thirdly, the mindset of entrepreneurs: They need to have the perseverance for long - term challenges