All the CEOs of automobile companies are studying Xiaomi YU7.
“In the past few days, almost all car companies have been studying the impact of the strong sales of Xiaomi YU7 on themselves.” An automotive industry insider described the current atmosphere in the automotive circle like this.
At 22:00 on the evening of June 26th, Xiaomi opened the pre - order channel for its first SUV model, the YU7 (the pre - order rule is a 5,000 - yuan deposit, which is refundable if the order is not confirmed within 7 days). In just 3 minutes, the number of firm orders exceeded 200,000; after 1 hour, this figure soared to 289,000; 240,000 orders were confirmed within 18 hours. The YU7 might be the fastest - selling car ever. Calculated based on the starting price of 253,500 yuan, the order value has exceeded 60 billion yuan.
This order volume is equivalent to the total cumulative sales of Xiaomi SU7 in 13 months after its launch, half of Tesla Model Y's sales in China last year, and the total annual sales of Li L6.
The pressure quickly spread to the sales end. A salesperson from a new - energy vehicle brand admitted, “The customer flow this weekend has decreased by 50%. Everyone has gone next door to look at Xiaomi.” And in Xiaomi stores, carpooling for test drives has become the norm. “If you place an order now, you'll have to wait one year and one month to pick up the standard version of the YU7, and 6 - 8 months for the Max version,” a Xiaomi car salesperson told Dingjiao One. “You'll wait a little less time for the SU7, about half a year.”
The popularity of the YU7 has even spawned a gray market: On Xianyu, scalpers are reselling orders with a markup of over 10,000 yuan, and the business of transferring “first - delivery qualifications” has quietly emerged.
Customers gathering around the YU7 in a Xiaomi car store, photo by Dingjiao One
This wave of impact has also triggered a chain reaction in the capital market: The stock prices of new - energy vehicle brands such as XPeng, NIO, Li Auto (US stocks), and Leapmotor dropped by 3 - 7% respectively. In contrast, Tesla, which the YU7 is directly competing with, had normal stock price fluctuations, with its US stocks closing down 0.54%.
In sharp contrast, Xiaomi's US ADR soared nearly 10%. The next day, its Hong Kong stocks opened 8% higher, with its market value exceeding HK$1.6 trillion, hitting a record high. As of press time, its total market value was HK$1.53 trillion.
For Xiaomi now, production capacity is a make - or - break test. Supply - chain insiders estimate that it may take a whole year to fulfill the backlog of SU7 orders and the nearly 300,000 new orders for the YU7.
Currently, Xiaomi has updated the order delivery cycle in its app: The standard version will be delivered in 53 - 56 weeks (≈13 months) after order confirmation at the earliest; the Pro version in 48 - 51 weeks (≈12 months); and the Max version in 33 - 36 weeks (≈8 months).
This reminds people that last year, the initial delivery cycle of the SU7 reached 32 - 40 weeks, which once led some users to cancel their orders and even switch to brands that could provide immediate delivery.
In response, an investor focusing on new - energy vehicles said that the first counter - attack from competitors will surely be price wars and upgraded benefits. “Price - cut plans for multiple models have long been prepared,” said a channel insider.
However, the war triggered by the YU7 is far more complex than just price and product aspects. The above - mentioned investor emphasized that the situation is not as optimistic as last year when the SU7 was launched. The automotive circle is bound to conduct a more in - depth and long - term reflection. “Who will be the most affected after the YU7 is launched? How will the competitive landscape change?” These are probably the most - watched questions in the automotive circle in 2025.
Competing with Model Y: No doubt about order volume, but can't exceed in delivery volume
Before discussing the competition between Xiaomi YU7 and its competitors, it's important to clarify one thing: Currently, competition in the Chinese electric - vehicle market is concentrated in two main battlefields: economy models priced below 100,000 yuan and mid - to - high - end models priced between 200,000 and 350,000 yuan. The latter is an area where Tesla Model Y has an absolute advantage. In 2024, its average monthly sales were 40,000 units, and the single - month peak even exceeded 60,000 units.
Now, Xiaomi YU7 is “declaring war” on the Model Y with its consistent strategy of “high - end configuration at a low price”: Starting at 253,500 yuan, it is 10,000 yuan cheaper than the Model Y. Meanwhile, it competes with the Model Y in every aspect, from power, battery range, handling flexibility to intelligent driving hardware (the YU7 is equipped with NVIDIA Thor chips + lidar, while Tesla uses its self - developed FSD and Hardware 4.0 hardware without lidar).
Li Feng, a senior insider with long - term experience in the new - energy vehicle industry, analyzed that many models have targeted the Model Y from the start, but what peers should pay attention to is that Lei Jun has reconstructed a narrative logic for competing with the Model Y.
At the press conference, Lei Jun didn't compare lidar computing power or high - voltage platform parameters like other peers. Instead, he spent time explaining features such as the zero - gravity driver's seat, the sky - screen, the one - click car - finding function in the garage, and the motion - sickness relief mode. “Emphasize the detailed experience, provide sufficient emotional value, and then talk about performance and battery range...”
Before the YU7 went on sale, the market started discussing a question: Can the Xiaomi YU7 surpass the Model Y?
If we look at the order volume, there's almost no doubt. The 289,000 orders on the first day of the YU7 are equivalent to half of the Model Y's annual sales in China in 2024 and far exceed the Model Y's average monthly new orders this year (20,000 - 50,000 units).
However, the YU7 can't exceed the Model Y in short - term delivery volume. Citibank predicted in a report that if there were no production - capacity restrictions, the YU7's mature monthly sales could reach 60,000 - 80,000 units. But a supply - chain insider emphasized that Xiaomi's biggest pressure right now comes from production capacity. Many prospective YU7 owners will have to wait until 2026 to pick up their cars.
According to the above - mentioned supply - chain insider's estimate, Xiaomi's second - phase factory (built for producing the YU7) will start production in July. In the case where the first batch of YU7s has to “compete” for production capacity with the SU7 and some are produced in the first - phase factory, the monthly delivery volume might reach 30,000 units. Even if the second - phase factory “works overtime” and achieves a 200% production - capacity utilization rate, with an annual output of about 300,000 units, it's already difficult to maintain a stable monthly production capacity of 25,000 units.
In an ideal situation, if the first - phase factory can operate at full capacity and jointly handle the YU7's production, increasing the monthly output to 30,000 units, it will still take a full 10 months to fulfill the nearly 300,000 orders Xiaomi has on hand.
Regarding the delivery time, a Xiaomi car salesperson told Dingjiao One that if you place an order on June 29th, you'll have to wait one year and one month to pick up the standard version of the YU7 and 6 - 8 months for the Max version. The time difference is because the order volume for the standard version far exceeds that of the other two versions.
This is consistent with the updated order delivery cycle in the Xiaomi app: The standard version will be delivered in 53 - 56 weeks after order confirmation at the earliest, the Pro version in 48 - 51 weeks, and the Max version in 33 - 36 weeks. The longest wait is nearly 14 months.
Tesla's Shanghai factory has an annual production capacity of 950,000 units, with an average monthly production capacity of 79,000 units. Its Chinese official website shows that the delivery cycle for the refreshed Model Y is 2 - 4 weeks.
This time difference is not in Xiaomi's favor. When the SU7 was first delivered last year, the delivery cycle reached 32 - 40 weeks. “Some users canceled their orders due to the long wait and even switched to brands that could provide immediate delivery, including Tesla,” said Jia Chen, an industry observer.
In the long run, can the YU7's regular sales match those of the Model Y?
Many people are optimistic about the YU7. One reason is that the Model Y's appeal is not as strong as before: In March this year, its sales reached a peak of 48,000 units after a facelift, but dropped sharply to 20,000 units in April and only barely recovered to 25,000 units in May. Calculated in this way, the average delivery volume in the first five months was only 25,000 units, a year - on - year plunge of 73.6%.
In summary, the YU7 is undoubtedly the most threatening challenger to the Model Y among domestic pure - electric SUVs priced above 250,000 yuan. However, it's still too early to call it the “Model Y killer.” If we only consider short - term orders, the YU7 has proven that domestic cars have the ability to outperform the Model Y in terms of parameters and user experience, and domestic brands can compete with this American new - energy vehicle company in terms of brand appeal.
If we use long - term “sales” as the standard, the outcome of the YU7 depends on the word - of - mouth after delivery on the one hand. This will directly affect subsequent sales. “Especially, there must be no serious accidents, otherwise, it may trigger a second wave of negative public opinion,” Li Feng said.
On the other hand, it also depends on what strategies Tesla will adopt. Li Feng gave an example: If Tesla opens its FSD, worth 64,000 yuan, for a six - month or long - term trial in China, it will be very attractive to potential users. Another example is that some media have reported that Tesla is developing a “youth - edition Model Y” by reducing the configuration to lower the starting price.
Impact on the “Six Major Brands”: Zhijie R7 reacts fastest, XPeng G7 may be affected
Although the YU7's promotional materials are full of “competing with the Model Y,” Tesla's stock price only dropped slightly by 0.54%. In contrast, the stock prices of new - energy vehicle brands such as XPeng, NIO, Li Auto (US stocks), and Leapmotor dropped by 3 - 7% respectively.
“With the YU7's popularity, the most at - risk are not the Model Y, but domestic players in the same price range with overlapping market positioning.” Zhao Lu, an investor focusing on new - energy vehicles, said.
After the launch of the Xiaomi SU7, its main competitor, the Model 3 (which has maintained a top - three position in the sales of pure - electric mid - sized cars), was not significantly affected overall. Other competitors, such as the Zeekr 001/007, XPeng P7, and Zhijie S7, all saw a decline in sales after the SU7 was launched. Now, the same scenario is repeating itself in the 250,000 - 350,000 - yuan pure - electric SUV market.
What's more interesting is the dramatic reversal of the atmosphere in the automotive circle. Before the YU7's launch press conference, founders of new - energy vehicle brands such as Li Xiang, He Xiaopeng, and Li Bin sent their blessings to the YU7 via Weibo. However, after the YU7 was launched, an executive from Dongfeng Nissan questioned that “the user delivery time may exceed one year” and implied that consumers were blindly following the trend. This statement triggered public outrage, and the executive deleted the content and publicly apologized. Zhu Jiangming, the founder of Leapmotor, said, “I feel a lot of pressure seeing the YU7 sell so well,” which truly reflects the collective anxiety in the industry.
The panic in the automotive circle stems from the fragile market structure of the 250,000 - 350,000 - yuan pure - electric SUV market. Looking at the sales list of 250,000 - 350,000 - yuan pure - electric SUVs, except for the Model Y, which ranks first with an average monthly sales of 25,000 units, there is no model with stable monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units.
Jia Chen analyzed that after the YU7 became popular, the sales of many models on the list will be affected. The so - called “Six Major Domestic Brands” that aim to “surround the Model Y” - LeDao L60, Zeekr 7X, IM LS6, Zhijie R7, Avatr 07, and Voyah Free - are at risk of losing orders due to their direct competition with the YU7.
The Zhijie R7, which reacted the fastest, launched a limited - time subsidy of 20,000 yuan and a maximum comprehensive subsidy of 54,000 yuan on the same day the Xiaomi YU7 was launched, valid until July 31st. The outside world speculates that this move by Zhijie is probably affected by the Xiaomi YU7.
In addition to the above models, the XPeng G7 (XPeng's first all - new model this year, set to be launched on July 3rd) is also expected to be significantly affected. Jia Chen analyzed that the XPeng G7 has a similar price range to the Xiaomi YU7, and their target customer groups overlap to some extent.
Citibank pointed out in a report that due to the YU7 attracting more attention, the pricing of the XPeng G7 may be lowered to 210,000 yuan. The XPeng G7 has previously announced its pre - sale prices. The new car is available in two versions, Max and Ultra, with a pre - sale price starting at 235,800 yuan.
Of course, the biggest variable in this “encirclement” is still the production capacity of the Xiaomi YU7. Jia Chen predicted that during the production - capacity ramp - up period of the YU7, competitors will continue to lower prices or increase benefits to retain orders and attract potential customers. From another perspective, this is also a crucial window period for other competitors.