Can the batteries of new energy vehicles last for 20 years? Has the last stronghold of fuel-powered vehicles also been breached?
Is the perception that new energy vehicle batteries are not durable actually a misconception?
When discussing whether to buy a new energy vehicle or a fuel - powered vehicle, some people always worry that new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, will experience a significant decline in driving range due to battery capacity degradation after reaching a certain mileage. They think replacing the battery is like buying a new car.
Indeed, batteries have two major problems: cycle life and calendar life. The cycle life means that the maximum battery capacity will decrease as the number of charging cycles increases. The calendar life refers to the gradual decrease in the maximum battery capacity over time due to material aging, even if the battery is not in use. However, a recent research report from the UK tells us that worrying about battery life degradation is completely unfounded.
According to the US automotive media Motor1, a study by the UK telematics company Geotab based on a sample of over 10,000 electric vehicles shows that the average annual degradation of electric vehicle batteries is about 1.8%. If there are no major accidents, the maximum battery capacity will still be equivalent to 64% of that of a new car after 20 years. Although the driving range has decreased significantly, it is still sufficient for daily use, and it lasts 6 years longer than the average lifespan of US cars.
However, a report released by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center in November 2024 shows that after driving 116,000 kilometers, the battery health of the 2019 Model 3 is still 89.3%, while that of the 2020 Li L ONE is only 75.6% after driving 103,000 kilometers. Even calculated by years, the annual battery degradation of the 2019 Model 3 is slightly over 2%. The two reports seem to conflict. Which one is more credible?
With the battery lasting longer than the car, can we buy pure electric vehicles with confidence?
Consumers' perception of battery degradation in new energy vehicles may come from common electronic devices such as mobile phones and tablets. Heavy mobile phone users may need to charge their phones two to three times a day. The number of charging cycles in a year is at least several hundred, and sometimes over a thousand. It is normal for the maximum battery capacity to degrade by about 10% in a year.
Cars are different. According to the common warranty limit of 30,000 kilometers per year provided by car manufacturers, the average daily driving distance is less than 100 kilometers. A car with a 500 - kilometer driving range needs about 60 to 80 charging cycles a year, which is far less than that of digital products. If calculated based on the average annual driving distance of 12,000 kilometers for private cars in China in 2023 given by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the number of charging cycles in a year is only about 30.
In the tests of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the Li L ONE has more severe battery degradation than the Model Y, which may be due to the smaller battery capacity of range - extended electric vehicles. New energy vehicles with smaller battery capacities need to be charged more frequently, which is more likely to lead to a decrease in battery life. This also reminds us that new energy vehicles equipped with large - capacity batteries not only have a longer driving range but also can effectively improve battery life.
(Image source: Li Auto)
As for which report, Geotab's or the China Automotive Technology and Research Center's, is more credible, Dianchetong (a media platform) believes Geotab's report. The reason is that the report from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center is based on the actual test results of a small number of products, which may be accidental. Geotab surveyed over 10,000 samples, and the large sample size can avoid the influence of individual differences on the results.
In fact, car manufacturers and battery companies are well aware of the importance of battery life. Technological upgrades have always focused on aspects that consumers care about, such as cycle life, fast - charging power, and energy density. For example, the official page of CATL, the global leading battery company, shows that the maximum battery life can reach 16 years or 2 million kilometers. It should be noted that battery life means that the capacity degradation does not exceed 20% during the charge - discharge cycles within the designed lifespan.
(Image source: CATL)
The battery pack of the Deepal vehicle equipped with the Golden Bell Shield 2.0 system is claimed to have up to 3,000 charging cycles. The self - developed God - Shield Short - Blade battery of Geely can have 3,500 charging cycles, with a battery life of up to 1 million kilometers. Also calculated based on the average annual driving distance of 12,000 kilometers for private cars, the power degradation of a car due to charging cycles will not exceed 30% after 20 years of use, while other parts of the vehicle may not last that long.
On various platforms, consumers generally say that the battery degradation of their own or their friends' new energy vehicles is not serious after many years of use. For example, a netizen on Zhihu showed his Emgrand EV purchased in 2016. After driving 100,000 kilometers, the battery health is still as high as 95%. A Weibo user said that he took a taxi with a driving mileage of 440,000 kilometers, and the driver said the battery degradation was less than 20%.
(Image source: Screenshot from Zhihu)
The annual driving mileage of taxis is much higher than that of private cars. Now, new energy vehicles have become the mainstream choice for taxi drivers. Especially in Guangzhou, it is almost impossible to take a blue - plate taxi. This shows that the durability of new energy vehicle batteries has been recognized by taxi drivers.
On the other hand, to make consumers more confident in buying new energy vehicles, car manufacturers also provide three - electric system warranty services. Some models of leading brands such as BYD, Chery, and Geely have joined the three - electric system lifetime warranty program. For car manufacturers or models that do not provide three - electric system lifetime warranty, they generally offer a warranty service for about 8 years or a driving range of about 150,000 kilometers. If the battery degrades seriously within the warranty period, the car manufacturer will replace the battery for free.
With technological improvements and service upgrades, battery degradation is no longer a problem that troubles consumers. This does not mean that the so - called advantage of fuel - powered vehicles having a longer service life is invalidated, nor does it mean that new energy vehicles will completely replace fuel - powered vehicles.
New energy vehicles still have a long way to go to replace fuel - powered vehicles
After battery degradation no longer troubles consumers, it sends a positive signal to the industry, that is, second - hand new energy vehicles can be bought with confidence. Data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that currently, the average three - year depreciation rate of fuel - powered vehicles is 52%, while that of pure electric vehicles is only 45%. There are two main reasons for the low depreciation rate of second - hand new energy vehicles. Firstly, users are worried that the three - electric systems of second - hand new energy vehicles are unreliable and dare not buy them after the warranty expires (the three - electric system warranty is basically only for the first - owner). Secondly, new energy vehicles are upgraded too quickly, and users are worried about being at a disadvantage.
After the cycle life of batteries is guaranteed and the products have passed the rapid upgrade period, the second - hand new energy vehicle market is developing rapidly. From January to April this year, the trading volume increased by 32.3% year - on - year. The notice of the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce on organizing the 2025 New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season in Thousands of Counties and Towns also mentioned the commitment to expanding the trading scale of second - hand new energy vehicles to facilitate users to trade in their old cars for new ones.
However, despite many policy supports, it will become more and more difficult for new energy vehicles to increase their market penetration rate. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, in July 2024, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 50% for the first time, but this trend did not continue. Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the China Passenger Car Association, wrote in his official account that from January to May this year, the production of new energy vehicles was 5.64 million units, with a penetration rate of 44%.
(Image source: Screenshot from Cui Dongshu's official account)
The reason is that factors such as range anxiety and high purchase costs limit the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. Although battery companies and car manufacturers can relieve users' concerns about battery degradation, they cannot completely solve range anxiety. The driving range advertised by car manufacturers is usually based on the CLTC driving cycle, which differs from the actual energy consumption and is easily affected by temperature. Even though the driving range of high - end pure electric vehicles can reach over 600 kilometers, it still cannot completely eliminate users' range anxiety.
The high cost of batteries is reflected in the selling price. Now, the starting prices of some B - class cars such as Buick Regal, Ford Mondeo, and Hyundai Sonata have dropped to about 100,000 yuan, but there are not many new energy B - class cars in this price range. In addition, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles has changed from exemption to a 50% reduction, which further increases the cost for consumers to buy new energy vehicles.
If we don't consider intelligence and only consider factors such as driving experience and interior space, fuel - powered vehicles currently have a better cost - performance ratio than new energy vehicles.
It can be predicted that the overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles will still maintain a year - on - year upward trend. During the upcoming peak car - selling season, it is expected to reproduce the situation last year when the penetration rate exceeded 50% for several consecutive months. However, new energy vehicles and fuel - powered vehicles will coexist for a long time, and new energy vehicles still have a long way to go before their penetration rate exceeds 60%. New energy vehicles that can solve the range problem, expand into the sinking market, and upgrade the user experience can accelerate the process of eroding the market share of fuel - powered vehicles.
Solid - state batteries are not the last straw for fuel - powered vehicles
Battery life is no longer a problem that troubles consumers, but range anxiety still has no perfect solution. Currently, car manufacturers and battery companies are quite optimistic about solid - state batteries. Solid - state batteries have a higher energy density, and domestic and foreign companies such as CATL, BYD, Chery, and Mercedes - Benz have been developing and testing this type of battery.
At the 2024 Global Innovation Conference, Chery was the first to launch an all - solid - state battery. The energy density of this product is as high as 600Wh/kg, almost twice that of ternary lithium batteries, and the driving range can reach over 1,500 kilometers. It will be mass - produced in 2026.
However, although solid - state batteries can solve the range problem of pure electric vehicles, they cannot be the last straw for fuel - powered vehicles because they are too expensive. Sun Huajun, an executive of BYD, once said that solid - state batteries will not reach the same price as liquid batteries until 2030. Even if domestic car manufacturers manage to install solid - state batteries in vehicles from 2026 to 2027, the cost of a 100kWh solid - state battery as high as 200,000 yuan is no joke, and only luxury cars can afford them.
(Image source: Generated by Doubao AI)
Among various types of batteries, sodium - ion batteries have the lowest cost, but their low energy density makes it difficult to achieve a long driving range. It seems that in the short term, a long driving range and low cost cannot be achieved simultaneously.
The competition between fuel - powered vehicles and new energy vehicles will be long - lasting and arduous. Geotab's report has dispelled consumers' concerns about the rapid decline of new energy vehicle battery life, which will play a positive role in increasing the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and make more consumers confident in buying new energy vehicles.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Dianchetong", author: Dianchetong. It is published by 36Kr with permission.