How will the reformed Elon Musk deal with the three "executioner's blades"?
Once a disruptor that swept through the electric vehicle industry, Tesla's sales curve is now plummeting like an out-of-control electric car off a cliff.
The Passenger Car Association estimates that Tesla's wholesale sales in China in May were 61,662 units, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, marking an eight-month consecutive decline.
Picture/Wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars (including estimates) in May 2025. Source/Screenshot from the Internet and New Energy Outlook
In major European markets, Tesla's situation is even worse. In May, Tesla's new car sales in the UK plunged by more than 45% year-on-year; in Germany, new car registrations decreased by 36.2% year-on-year; in France, sales dropped by 67% year-on-year; in Italy, new car registrations declined by 20.32% year-on-year.
Perhaps the most embarrassing thing for Tesla is that it has lost its "stronghold" in the US electric vehicle market. Data shows that Tesla's market share in California dropped to 43.9% in the first quarter of this year, the worst performance since it entered the market in 2012.
The three major markets of Europe, the US, and China are like three guillotines, signaling the collapse of the throne of the electric vehicle hegemon.
The decline had early signs. While Elon Musk was talking about colonizing Mars on the X platform, Chinese competitors were tirelessly improving the three-electric systems day and night; while he was indulging in political games, 67% of Americans refused to buy Tesla, the Dutch Consumer Association launched a joint boycott letter, and Tesla's brand favorability in the UK plummeted to 11%...
Tesla's global market share has dropped sharply from 26% in 2023 to 9.7% in the first quarter of 2025.
Elon Musk's "Iron Man" aura can't withstand the slow product iteration, the backlash of geopolitics, and a global "technological equalization" revolution.
1. US Market: The Stronghold Is Conquered
The US market, once regarded by Tesla as its backyard, is now a microcosm of its decline. In California, the "birthplace" of Tesla, a betrayal is taking place.
In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla's market share in the local electric vehicle market dropped sharply to 43.9%, falling below the 50% warning line for the first time since 2012. Even more ironically, while the overall sales of electric vehicles in California increased by 35%, Tesla's registrations decreased by 15% against the trend.
Picture/Tesla's market share in California from 2022 to Q1 2025. Source/Screenshot from the Internet and New Energy Outlook
The once-dominant Model 3 has become an "antique car" - it has not been upgraded in 9 years. While Chinese automakers are constantly launching new models with an 18-month R & D cycle, Tesla's "inherited" interior, unresponsive in-car system, and unreasonable navigation planning have become the main targets of user complaints.
These chronic problems have directly led to a 35.9% plunge in Model 3 registrations in California. It was even overtaken by the Toyota Camry by a narrow margin, setting an embarrassing record of an electric vehicle being defeated by a fuel-powered car for the first time.
Technological stagnation is just the prologue of the decline. American consumers are embracing the "hybrid revolution" with real money: in 2024, the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles dropped from 12% to 9%, while the sales of hybrid models soared by 24%. The Toyota Prius, with a comprehensive range of 1,200 kilometers, is sucking away Tesla's potential customers like a pump.
Elon Musk's insistence on the "pure electric only theory" has been slapped in the face by reality - when the range of the Model Y shrinks by 40% in the cold wave and the owners have to queue at the charging station for up to 2 hours, the hybrid car owners have already filled up their tanks and driven away.
The last straw that broke the camel is the "political poison pill" planted by Elon Musk himself. He publicly took on the role of the co - head of the "Government Efficiency Department" under Trump and led a plan to lay off 100,000 civil servants, instantly igniting a wave of protests in 30 cities across the US with the slogan "Down with Tesla".
Picture/In a survey of 100,000 people in Germany, 94% said they would not choose Tesla. Source/Screenshot from the Internet and New Energy Outlook
In California, the stronghold of the liberals, this aversion is particularly intense, directly leading to a 15.1% plunge in Tesla's sales in the state. 43% of users said they would not buy Tesla because of Elon Musk. In the past year, Tesla's sales in the US dropped by 26.77%, and the registrations of the Model 3 in California decreased by 35.9%. Behind these numbers is the fading glory of Tesla in the US market, and its dominant position at home has been completely shaken.
2. European Battlefield: A Sea of Despair
In Europe, Tesla has also suffered a major setback. The demand for pure electric vehicles in the European market continues to grow. The sales of pure electric vehicles in major markets such as the EU increased by more than 37% year-on-year at the beginning of this year. Surprisingly, in such a favorable market environment, the former hegemon Tesla has seen a sharp decline against the trend.
According to the data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Tesla's sales in the EU market have been declining continuously. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla's new car registrations decreased by 50%, 47%, and 36% respectively.
Germany, its largest market in Europe, suddenly removed the policy support it once relied on. After the German government cancelled the subsidy for electric vehicles, Tesla became the biggest victim - its sales in January dropped from 3,150 units to 1,277 units; in February, there was a cliff - like 76% decline; in April, sales continued to plunge by 45.9% year-on-year, with only 885 units sold, less than a thousand.
In the UK, Tesla's new car sales in May were only 1,758 units, a year-on-year plunge of more than 45% compared with 3,244 units in the same period last year, continuing the 62% cliff - like decline in April.
It should be noted that the overall new car market in the UK is showing signs of recovery. In May, the new car registrations in the UK increased by 4.3% to 144,098 units, and the sales of pure electric vehicles increased by 28% year-on-year. Against this background, Tesla's sales performance is shocking.
In countries such as France, the Netherlands, Norway, and Denmark, Tesla's sales have declined by more than 60% - the magnitude of the decline has made the media use eye - catching words such as "cliff - like" and "halved" in their headlines.
Picture/Changes in Tesla's EU sales in March and Q1 2025. Source/Screenshot from the Internet and New Energy Outlook
Elon Musk's political adventures have triggered a nuclear explosion in Europe. His increasingly obvious political inclination in recent years has caused substantial damage to Tesla's brand image, especially in the European market with more diverse and progressive values. Elon Musk's public support for far - right political figures in Europe has directly triggered a strong backlash from the young consumer group.
For example, his public praise of a right - wing political party in Germany has angered the entire mainstream society from trade unions to the political circle. The Germans are angrily shouting that they will never buy Tesla again. When the brand has changed from an "environmental pioneer" to a "far - right symbol", the collapse of sales is inevitable.
What really ended Tesla's dominance in Europe is the "dimensionality reduction strike" of the Chinese auto groups. They bypassed the EU tariff barriers with plug - in hybrid models. With their product performance and affordable prices, their sales have soared, diluting Tesla's market share.
For example, SAIC's sales in the European market increased by 24.5% year-on-year in April, making it one of the top 10 automakers with 21,677 units sold; BYD's pure electric vehicle registrations in the European market also exceeded Tesla's for the first time in April. Data shows that BYD's registrations increased by 169% year-on-year in that month, while Tesla's decreased by 49%.
Picture/Sales data of SAIC and Tesla from January to April 2025. Source/Screenshot from the Internet and New Energy Outlook
3. Chinese Market: Saturated Encirclement
In China, the "lifeline" that accounts for one - third of Tesla's global sales, the crisis seems to be even more brutal.
In February 2025, Tesla's wholesale sales were only 30,688 units, a year-on-year plunge of 49.16%, dropping out of the top ten in new energy vehicle sales. The once - legendary Model Y's market share shrank from 7.8% to 5.4%, relegating it to a second - tier player.
Picture/Wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars in February 2025. Source/Screenshot from the Internet and New Energy Outlook
The collapse began when its technological secrets were completely exposed. The 60kWh battery pack of the Model Y against the 101kWh Kirin battery of the Xiaomi SU7 is like a "battle between a PHS phone and a smartphone"; the 400V platform takes 30 minutes to charge for a 300 - kilometer range, while the 800V high - voltage platform of the Zeekr 007 can charge for a 500 - kilometer range in 12 minutes. Users joked that "it's enough time to have two meals of hot pot while a Tesla is charging".
What's even more fatal is the failure of Tesla's Full Self - Driving (FSD) in China: the optional package priced at 64,000 yuan often malfunctions on China's complex roads - it needs manual takeover when passing over speed bumps, has inaccurate recognition of tricycles, and drives into flooded roads by mistake in the rain. The owners joked that Tesla's self - driving can only recognize the wide roads in Silicon Valley and can't see the morning rush hour outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing.
Picture/Tesla FSD price. Source/Screenshot from the Internet and New Energy Outlook
Obviously, Tesla's decline is due to both its own technological backwardness and the saturated encirclement launched by Chinese automakers.
In terms of price, Chinese new energy automakers led by BYD have launched another price war. Some models have even cut prices by up to 53,000 yuan, forcing the once - arrogant Tesla into a corner again.
In terms of technology, 24 new models in the 200,000 - 300,000 yuan price range are competing with the Model 3: the Zeekr 7X uses lidar and CDC electromagnetic suspension to create a "ground - hugging flight mode"; the Zhijie R7's Hongmeng cockpit enables seamless connection between the mobile phone and the car; the Xiaomi SU7 can connect with 800 million IoT devices, and you can turn on the air - conditioner at home by just speaking in the car.
Picture/Zhijie R7 - Zeekr 7X - Xiaomi SU7. Source/Screenshot from the Internet and New Energy Outlook
In the face of the encirclement, Tesla's "arrogance syndrome" has flared up again, accelerating its decline.
The Shanghai factory has repeatedly suggested adding seat ventilation and a co - driver screen, but the US headquarters rejected the proposal with the excuse of "global unified design"; the facelift of the Model Y only changed the bumper. The salespeople joked that "our facelift is simpler than pasting a film on a mobile phone."
While local competitors are iterating their products with an 18 - month R & D cycle, Tesla's product line, which has not been upgraded for five years, has completely exposed its "muscle atrophy" - it's not that China doesn't need Tesla, but that Tesla needs to understand China again.