Apple "fights a desperate battle", and the iPhone becomes the top-selling mobile phone during the 618 Shopping Festival.

The 618 shopping festival has come to an end, and the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max have claimed the top two spots on the best-selling mobile phone lists on JD.com and Tmall.

Recently, global market research firm Counterpoint Research released the latest data showing that in May this year, Apple's iPhone regained the top spot in sales in the Chinese market. Globally, sales in April and May increased by 15% year-on-year. Preliminary data from the firm shows that the rebound in global sales is mainly due to the recovery of growth in Apple's two largest markets - China and the United States.

The Chinese market is one of Apple's most important global markets. However, in recent quarters, Apple's performance in Greater China has been under continuous pressure. According to Apple's financial report for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2024 (i.e., the third quarter of the natural year 2024), revenue in Greater China was $15.033 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.34%. The full-year revenue was $66.952 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.73%. This is the only market among all the regions divided in Apple's financial report that recorded negative annual growth.

Moreover, this downward trend has continued for five quarters. After entering the 2025 fiscal year, Apple's revenue in Greater China has continued to decline: in the first fiscal quarter, it was $18.51 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11%; in the second fiscal quarter, it was $16 billion, a further decline.

Recently, riding on the wave of the 618 shopping festival and national subsidies, Apple significantly reduced the prices of iPhones, and iPhone sales have rebounded.

Significant iPhone Price Cuts under National Subsidies

On June 17, reporters from "IT Times" logged on to mainstream e-commerce platforms such as Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Douyin and found that the iPhone remains the undisputed sales champion in the mobile phone track during the entire 618 promotion. The platform lists show that whether it is the main venue on Tmall, the 10-billion-yuan subsidy channel, or the national subsidy list, the iPhone 16 series ranks first.

Compared with previous years, the discount efforts for iPhones offered by various platforms this year have increased significantly. Some models have a maximum discount of more than 2,600 yuan. However, different platforms have different focuses on their discount strategies. Among them, the most cost-effective one is the "educational discount" channel on Tmall.

The official flagship store of Tmall Campus Education shows that the 256GB and 512GB versions of the white titanium metal iPhone 16 Pro Max are still in stock, while the other color schemes are out of stock. After stacking Taobao coins for deduction, Tmall consumer vouchers, and local subsidies, the estimated minimum price for the 256GB version is only 7,408 yuan, a direct reduction of 2,607 yuan.

The prices in the "10-billion-yuan subsidy" channel on Taobao are also attractive. The 256GB and 512GB versions of the iPhone 16 Pro Max are priced at 7,558 yuan and 9,548 yuan respectively, which are 2,441 yuan and 2,451 yuan cheaper than the official release prices.

In the "10-billion-yuan subsidy" channel on Pinduoduo, the price of the iPhone 16 Pro Max is basically the same as that on Taobao. However, the 128GB version of the iPhone 16 Pro only costs 5,398 yuan after stacking national subsidies, a reduction of up to 2,601 yuan compared with the official price of 7,999 yuan.

In the Douyin Mall, official self-operated channels offer discounts and local subsidies. The price of the 1TB version of the iPhone 16 Pro Max after subsidies is 11,539 yuan, 2,460 yuan cheaper than the release price of 13,999 yuan.

In comparison, the self-operated flagship store on JD.com is a bit conservative in terms of price. Although some Plus series models have a slight advantage on JD.com, some versions of the iPhone 16 Pro series are still out of stock.

Judging from the sales data of each platform, the iPhone ranks first in multiple lists such as the 618 main venue on Tmall, the national subsidy list, and the 10-billion-yuan subsidy list. This unprecedented price cut is obviously a rare "price plunge" for the iPhone 16 series, which has been on the market for less than a year.

Compared with the discount efforts of the previous two generations of models during the 618 period, Apple's price cut this year is more radical and also has a bit of a meaning of clearing inventory.

Clearing Inventory or Restoring Confidence?

This "price plunge" led by Apple was obviously planned in advance. As early as May 10, some channel providers revealed that Apple had issued a price adjustment notice to sellers: the entire iPhone 16 Pro Max series was reduced by $160 (about 1,313 yuan), and the 128GB version of the iPhone 16 Pro had a larger reduction of $176 (about 1,445 yuan). Some channel providers believe that Apple's price adjustment this time is to prepare for the upcoming "618" promotion.

Subsequently, JD.com took the lead in launching 618 subsidies, and the 128GB version was only sold for 5,499 yuan after stacking; Tmall followed closely behind and also offered a price of 5,499 yuan after subsidies.

Reporters from "IT Times" noticed that in recent years, Apple has frequently adjusted prices actively before important nodes. During the Double 11 in 2024, less than a month after the release of the iPhone 16 series, Taobao's Apple Store launched an activity of direct reduction of 500 yuan per unit; at the beginning of 2024, Apple's official website in China also launched a "New Year Promotion" with a maximum price cut of 800 yuan for all products. Now, Apple's use of the "price tool" has gradually become normalized.

The price cut strategy has obviously brought "sweetness" to Apple. Recently, Morgan Stanley issued a research report, maintaining its "Overweight" rating on Apple (AAPL.US) with a target price of $235. The bank said that thanks to the promotion activities during the 618 shopping festival in China and national subsidy policies, Apple's sales of iPhones and iPads in the second quarter exceeded expectations, and it is expected to bring up to $4 billion in revenue growth in the second quarter. This positive trend means that Apple's stock price may be supported in the short term, especially when its valuation is close to a two-year low.

The report pointed out that the sales of iPhones and iPads in the Chinese market have been strong for three consecutive weeks, and this momentum is driving Apple's second-quarter shipments to exceed expectations. Specifically, the production of iPhones in the second quarter is expected to reach 46.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19%, higher than the previous expectation of 45 million units; the production of iPads is expected to be 14.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38%, higher than the previous expectation of 13 million units.

Based on the historical seasonal relationship between production and shipments, Morgan Stanley expects that the iPhone shipments in the second quarter will reach 49 million units, 7% higher than the bank's previous expectation of 46 million units and 8% higher than the market consensus of 45.2 million units; the iPad shipments are expected to reach 14.7 million units, 20% higher than the bank's previous expectation of 12.3 million units and 12% higher than the market consensus of 13.1 million units.

However, the bank also said that although the demand in the second quarter was strong, supply chain analysis shows that part of the demand may be the result of early release. As the 618 promotion ends at the beginning of the third quarter, the sales growth rate of iPhones and iPads may slow down.

Current production forecasts show that the iPhone shipments in the third quarter are in line with Morgan Stanley's current forecast of 20 million units, and the iPad production is 1 million units higher than its forecast of 13 million units. Therefore, although the seasonal performance in the third quarter is weak, based on the strong base in the second quarter, the production and shipments actually indicate that the shipments in the third quarter will still meet or slightly exceed the bank's expectations.

In addition, Apple's iPhone production in India is progressing smoothly, and it is expected that the annual production in 2025 will reach 47 million units, a nearly 70% increase compared with 28 million units in 2024. The bank expects that if the current production speed continues, by the end of 2026, all iPhones shipped to the United States may come from India.

In addition to price measures, Apple's market strategy has also undergone subtle changes. At the recently concluded WWDC25 Global Developers Conference, Apple unusually "drew fewer pies" and the content of the release was very restrained. However, in the face of the continuous pursuit of domestic mobile phone manufacturers in terms of AI photography, system interaction, and ecological integration, Apple's AI is still hard to come out, and the evolution of Siri is still "delayed". These stagnations at the technical level have also disappointed many Apple fans.

On the one hand, there is a revival on the sales list; on the other hand, there is a slow pace in AI implementation and innovation. Now, Apple has become more pragmatic and perhaps more "anxious" in the Chinese market. Driven by subsidy dividends and price wars, the iPhone successfully won a window for market repair during the 618 period. However, in the face of the dual challenges of the next generation of technology cycle and the squeeze of local brands, whether this "recovery" can continue still needs time to verify.

Photos /  IT Times  Taobao  JD.com

This article is from the WeChat public account "IT Times" (ID: vittimes), author: Jia Tianrong, reprinted by 36Kr with permission.