In 2025, there will be a major boom in the North American lawn mower market. Ninebot, Segway Robotics, and Dreame will have a fierce competition | Focus Analysis
Author | Huang Nan
Editor | Yuan Silai
Summer is in full swing, and the overgrown lawns in American backyards have once again become a headache.
Different from previous years, this year's seasonal annoyance about lawns is evolving into a battle led by Chinese lawn mowing robot companies.
This season, they are aiming to break into North America - the largest and most challenging market.
Gao Lufeng, the founder and chairman of Ninebot, told Hard Krypton that the US market is approaching the tipping point of an explosion. It is reported that Ninebot is steadily advancing its channel layout, has reached a cooperation with Lowe's, and is in talks with other large - scale channel partners for contracts.
Among startups, Mammotion, a brand under Agilex, previously announced a cooperation with the United Soccer League (USL) in the United States to enhance its local brand awareness through sports events. An industry insider close to Agilex told Hard Krypton that since the beginning of the year until May, Agilex has stocked up over 300,000 lawn mowing robots.
In contrast, Dreame's main battlefield is still in Europe. Its three lawn mower products are mainly targeted at medium - sized mainstream lawns.
Data from Frost & Sullivan shows that in the global outdoor power equipment (OPE) market worth over $30 billion, the scale of lawn mowing robots is only $2.6 billion, with an annual sales volume of 1.2 - 1.3 million units and a sales penetration rate of 5%. By 2030, the sales volume is expected to reach 5 - 10 million units.
Among them, North America, as the world's largest garden economy market, represents significant strategic value.
Although North America, as the world's largest garden economy, contributes nearly 60% of the global market share of lawn mowers, the penetration rate of lawn mowing robots in this region remains below 3%. The direct reason is the lack of user awareness in the North American market.
Currently, the time window for enterprises is rapidly narrowing. Which company can complete channel positioning, technology adaptation, and brand penetration first will directly affect its future.
The Untapped US Market
The uniqueness of the US market determines the complexity of this competition.
European users are highly sensitive to intelligent lawn mowing robots. In Europe, the traditional boundary - type lawn mowers used to provide a smooth and stable experience. Although the installation process was cumbersome and expensive, they unexpectedly became effective market education tools.
This group of people has also become the target users of intelligent lawn mowing robots. They are highly sensitive to function iteration. Compared with traditional boundary - type lawn mowers, the wire - free design of boundary - less lawn mowing robots precisely addresses the pain points of the previous products, such as cumbersome installation and lack of flexibility.
The situation in the US market is quite different.
According to data from the American Horticultural Society, about 42% of middle - class families adhere to the traditional DIY lawn mowing method. Some high - income groups also choose to hire professional lawn mowing services. Based on the single - visit fee of $50 - $100 for Mexican gardeners, the cost of 25 lawn mowing services a year is about $1,000 - $2,500.
"US users pay more attention to cost - effectiveness and practicality when choosing lawn mowing tools, and have relatively low demand for intelligent functions," Zhang Jia, an investor who has long been concerned about overseas hardware, told Hard Krypton. "The core requirement is always 'can it mow the lawn efficiently'."
The former head of a lawn mowing robot manufacturer also pointed out to Hard Krypton that "many companies have concerns about user education in the US market. Everyone is worried that after investing resources in cultivating market awareness in the early stage, they will be taken advantage of by latecomers who will seize the market dividends."
One of the main reasons why US users rely on manual labor is the high difficulty of lawn mowing.
In the United States, the average area of most gardens is 1,000 - 5,000 square meters, and they are in a semi - open state. The average tree - covered area in each yard is 15%. There are steep terrains with slopes of over 20°, and some areas even have extreme slopes of over 30°. The grass species are mainly hard - textured grasses such as tall fescue and ryegrass. During the peak growing season, the daily growth rate reaches 1.5 cm, which requires high - power blades and high - frequency operation capabilities.
Currently, there are significant differences in the garden environments of different states. For example, Florida has sandy soil, which easily causes wheel slippage. In Texas, people plant prickly cacti, so puncture - proof tires need to be used. There are thousands of such scenarios.
Compared with lawn mowing robots that cost thousands of dollars, push - type lawn mowers are generally priced within $100. Coupled with their simple operation and low maintenance costs, push - type lawn mowers are still the mainstream choice in the US market.
Segway Navimow X3 series exhibited at CES 2025 (Source/Weilan Continent)
For intelligent lawn mowing robots to enter the US market, they must invest a huge amount of resources for upgrading. For example, when a lawn mowing robot climbs on a steep slope, the motor needs to output additional torque to overcome the component of gravity, which easily leads to a sharp increase in battery energy consumption and accelerated wear of the gearbox. At the same time, for hard - textured grasses, if the wear - resistance of the blade material is insufficient, continuous operation will also accelerate the wear of the blade edge. Not only will the cutting efficiency decrease, but there will also be a phenomenon of "pulling the grass" instead of "cutting it off".
"A lawn mowing robot is essentially a highly integrated intelligent mobile platform, equivalent to a small car. Its product standards should be on par with the automotive industry, rather than ordinary small household appliances or toys," Zhang Jia said. "All - round capabilities need to be improved. Any performance short - board of key components will affect the final operation effect and user experience."
"US users have strict requirements for product fault tolerance and pay more attention to the near - 'zero - defect' experience in details, including the product itself and after - sales service. This also means that manufacturers need to invest a large amount of resources to handle customer complaints," an industry insider told Hard Krypton.
Large companies are obviously willing to invest efforts.
In April this year, Weilan Continent, a company under Ninebot, launched the latest lawn mowing robot, Segway Navimow X3, in Paris. The body width of the X3 exceeds half a meter, it can walk stably on a slope of nearly 26.6°, and its maximum operating area is 10,000 square meters.
Ninebot continues the technical route of RTK plus vision, with a wider signal coverage and shorter signal transmission delay. At the same time, the obstacle - avoidance algorithm has also been optimized, and it can effectively identify obstacles with a diameter of over 1 cm.
Segway Navimow X3 (Source/Weilan Continent)
Another representative product is the LUBA 2 AWD series launched by Mammotion under Agilex. It is mainly targeted at large and complex lawns of 2.5 acres. It can handle slopes of 38.6° and is not easily stuck when passing through harsh terrains such as tall grass, potholes, and gravel roads.
This generation of robots is clearly willing to adopt high - cost technologies. Currently, in addition to Dreame, several lawn mowing robot manufacturers are also exploring lidar solutions.
Mammotion recently launched the LUBA mini AWD LiDAR, the first lawn mowing robot equipped with a solid - state lidar, and announced a contract for 1.2 million solid - state lidars with RoboSense.
LUBA mini AWD LiDAR (Source/Mammotion)
This is the most costly solution.
"The cost sensitivity in the robot industry is different from that in the automotive field. Although the scale effect can drive a certain reduction in costs, it is difficult to achieve the same level of cost reduction as in the early days of automotive lidars," the head of a core component manufacturer told Hard Krypton. "Currently, the industrial chain of lawn mowing robots is becoming more mature, but it will still take some time for the cost - reduction space to be realized within the expected range."
Ultimately, this is a battle of funds.
The Race Against Time
Official data shows that Ninebot's total revenue from its lawn mowing robot business in 2024 was 861 million yuan. In the first quarter, it sold 33,100 units with sales of 180 million yuan. From this, it can be estimated that its shipment volume last year exceeded 140,000 units. According to the latest statistics from Ninebot, as of May 2025, the number of its lawn mower product users globally has exceeded 240,000.
Hard Krypton learned that Mammotion's brand sales volume in the European and American markets reached 80,000 units in 2024, and it is expected to exceed 300,000 units this year, serving over 400,000 family users in total.
On February 8th, Dreame also announced that the shipment volume of its intelligent lawn mowing robots had exceeded 100,000 units.
Dreame lawn mowing robot A2 (Source/Dreame Technology)
As a typical category that emphasizes experience, service, and channels, leading manufacturers are well aware of the importance of channel competition. Relying on their strong financial and resource advantages, they are accelerating the channel layout to gain the upper hand.
The channel layout of lawn mowers in the United States is relatively fragmented, including professional garden tool stores, large - scale KA supermarkets, as well as online channels such as Amazon and independent websites.
Each channel type forms a differentiated complement in terms of consumer reach and product positioning. Among them, the professional horticultural channel accounts for about 35%. Represented by SiteOne and John Deere stores, it focuses on high - end professional models priced over $2,500. With professional installation and after - sales service, it has strong customer loyalty and a high repurchase rate.
Large - scale KA supermarkets account for about 40% of the market share. Chain brands such as Home Depot and Lowe's have an "Intelligent Gardening" section, with most models in the mid - price range of $800 - $1,500 for high - volume sales. Coupled with a 25% seasonal discount in spring, they have become the main choice for DIY groups.
E - commerce platforms currently account for 25% and are continuously growing. Amazon has opened a vertical channel for "Robot Gardening" to assist users in their purchases, and some independent websites use the DTC model to achieve brand promotion and customer acquisition.
A person from a lawn mowing robot manufacturer told Hard Krypton that in an ideal state, the online - to - offline sales ratio in the US market should be 5:5. However, according to Kickstarter data, 90% of the company's turnover currently comes from online platforms, and the offline shipment volume is very small.
"Since lawn mowers are durable goods with a high customer - unit price and a long service cycle, US KA channels are often cautious when introducing products. They basically won't consider products with no brand awareness or reputation in the local market. Even if a product gets in, it has to pay high channel fees. Therefore, at this stage, it is very necessary for online and offline channels to support each other in terms of customer acquisition," the above - mentioned person said.
In contrast, large companies such as Ninebot and Dreame have a natural advantage in the channel aspect. Industry insiders revealed that Ninebot has accumulated many partners in Europe and North America, and some distributors have even actively approached the company for machine testing.
Segway Navimow X3 (Source/Weilan Continent)
Xu Peng, the vice - president and secretary of the board of directors of Ninebot, told Hard Krypton that based on the brand accumulation of Segway in the past, in terms of user education, the company is cooperating with local KOLs and industry influencers in the United States. Through professional evaluations and scenario - based content output, it is accelerating the cultivation of market awareness to expand the brand influence in more regions.
Hard Krypton learned that they have reached a cooperation with Lowe's. The first batch of products will be launched on its online sales platform first, and they plan to gradually expand the distribution to offline stores.
"Entering the US market takes time. Once users' awareness and education are completed, we believe that its market potential is far greater than that of Europe," Xu Peng said.
Before that, the latest data from Ninebot shows that in April this year, its Navimow lawn mowing robot topped the Amazon platform in the German market.
On the Agilex side, Mammotion's product matrix has formed a relatively clear price range, which can cover various types of lawns. According to official data, as of Q1 2025, two of Agilex's product series ranked first on the Best Seller list of the lawn mowing robot category on Amazon in Germany, France, and the United States. Among them, the monthly sales of the LUBA 2 AWD 10000H exceeded $4 million, and it became the best - selling product on the North American site just one month after its launch.
Lawn mowing robots for different lawn areas (Source/Mammotion)
As for Dreame, industry insiders told Hard Krypton that although its lawn mowing robot business is still mainly concentrated in Europe, part of it uses the same channels as its floor - sweeping robots. In the US market, it mainly uses online marketing to drive traffic to offline supermarkets.
"Dreame's core advantage