In the first week of the tariff truce between China and the United States, foreign trade professionals went from being in a state of shock to experiencing a boom in orders.

Author | Ou Xue

Editor | Yuan Silai

Some freight forwarders whose business had become rather sluggish suddenly received nearly a hundred emails. Customers were all urging them to "arrange shipments immediately." In some regions, warehouse bookings have been made until the end of May.

"The air freight prices are rising, but bookings are still available. Shipping companies may be a bit delayed," a cross - border logistics service provider told Yingke.

Everyone is racing against time.

On May 12th, after intensive consultations between the high - level economic and trade officials of China and the United States, a phased consensus on tariff issues was finally reached.

According to the US measures, the United States announced that the 24% tariff previously imposed on specified Chinese goods would enter a 90 - day suspension period, while retaining a 10% tariff. Meanwhile, the additional tariffs involved in the relevant executive orders on April 8th and April 9th were also cancelled. Additionally, the United States had previously imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the "fentanyl issue." So after reaching the consensus, the total tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese goods is 30%.

"These 90 days are a rare buffer period for B2B enterprises," Zhu Qiucheng, CEO of New Oriental Industry and Trade, told Yingke. Shippers are seizing the 90 - day window of the tariff policy to ship goods and clear the inventory that had accumulated due to the high - tariff policy.

Data from trade tracker Vizion shows that from May 5th to May 14th, the average booking volume of container transportation from China to the United States soared by 277%.

The outcome is far from certain. Behind the hustle and bustle of factories and ports, there still lingers unease and panic. "Being still in shock is my current biggest feeling," Zhu Qiucheng admitted.

Factories are operating around the clock, actually clearing risks and preparing for possible future changes. Cross - border e - commerce sellers, on the other hand, are mostly waiting and watching.

"It's unclear whether the 24% tariff will be extended after the 90 - day suspension period. It's difficult for merchants to formulate long - term and stable production and sales plans," Wang Yujian, the executive secretary - general of the Shenzhen Business Research Association, told Yingke.

But what is certain is that at least for these three months, the rope around the necks of businessmen has been briefly loosened. During this period, the entire foreign trade industry hopes to find some sense of control in the chaos. They will never give up any possibility. After all, the entrepreneurial spirit will never fade in any era.

Temporary Calm

"Foreign trade B2B enterprises have temporarily caught their breath," Zhu Qiucheng said in an interview with Yingke.

Since the beginning of this year, the tariff policy has had a particularly obvious impact on small and medium - sized factories, especially those B2B enterprises whose products are in the middle and lower ends of the industrial chain and rely solely on the US market. Some US importers even switched to purchasing from other countries during the period of trade tension.

Zhu Qiucheng observed that some factories could produce goods for old customers up to more than 40 containers with only a 10% deposit, but encountered customers directly canceling orders due to the sudden sharp increase in tariffs. After the May Day holiday this year, in labor - intensive industries such as clothing, many factories shut down directly, with the shutdown period ranging from 15 days to one month.

According to previous reports by Yingke, most companies' inventory in the United States was about one and a half months. That is to say, when China and the United States mutually reduced tariffs, many companies' inventories were just exhausted. Many B - end enterprises are seizing this policy window period and stepping up their shipment efforts.

(Image source/Pexels)

Compared with factory - type enterprises with large shipment volumes, cross - border sellers are relatively more flexible. He Dongdong, the financial director of Shenzhen Leneng Innovation Technology Co., Ltd., told Yingke that the demand changes of their C - end customers were not obvious. Most importantly, due to the short interval between the imposition and cancellation of tariffs, the company is still clearing the inventory in its overseas warehouses that was stocked up in advance to deal with the additional tariffs.

Although the current tariff reduction is good news, many people still dare not take major actions.

He Dongdong told Yingke that when the tariffs were raised previously, the prices of the company's products generally increased by 5% - 10%. After this temporary tariff reduction, the company will not consider lowering the prices immediately.

Actually, he believes that the overall market price will not react immediately, and its subsequent trend will depend on the industry's direction. If leading enterprises take the lead in resuming discounts, price cuts and other measures, it may drive the market price down.

Overseas Warehouses Become the Solution

"Within these 90 days, all kinds of warehouses on the US route should be in short supply," some freight forwarders told Yingke. Many customers want to stock more goods in US overseas warehouses during the window period.

An obvious trend is that cross - border e - commerce will enter an era of global procurement + local delivery, and the origin attribute of products will gradually fade.

That is to say, sellers must have local warehousing and be responsible for the last - mile logistics delivery themselves. The past way of directly shipping goods from China to the United States by air will gradually fade out.

Many sellers have also realized this change.

The merchants least affected this time are those with local inventory. Zhu Qiucheng's company established an overseas warehouse in the United States early on, and currently, the inventory in the overseas warehouse is sufficient to support normal sales for the next 3 - 4 months. Therefore, this tariff adjustment has little impact on the company's business, and daily shipments continue as usual.

It can be said that overseas warehouses have become a must - have for cross - border business. Some overseas warehouses will launch a "flat - rate" pricing model for small and medium - sized sellers and share teaching materials for sellers to learn basic knowledge.

According to Gucang Overseas Warehouse, the warehouse rent in the United States in 2024 has almost doubled compared to before 2021. Consequently, the competition among overseas warehouses will also intensify. In addition to traditional logistics companies, even private freight forwarders will rent warehouses in the United States.

(Image source/IC photo)

Overseas warehouse enterprises are already ready to receive the incoming cargo flow, including increasing the proportion of small and medium - sized parcels and building specialized automated warehouses for small items.

Zhu Qiucheng told Yingke that overseas warehouses are no longer limited to traditional warehousing services. Many 3C enterprises carry out product repair services in overseas warehouses. In the future, overseas warehouses will also provide value - added services such as bonded services and local production.

Stocking goods in overseas warehouses is a stopgap measure at present and cannot fundamentally solve the cost fluctuations caused by tariffs. But sellers have prepared for the worst - case scenario - it's just a return to the previous 145% tariff level. The current 90 - day buffer period is for the remaining 24% tariff part. Even if it is finally implemented, the overall tax rate will only be 34%.

"Maintaining strategic composure is crucial," He Dongdong said. "After all, the losses caused by a hard decoupling are also difficult for the United States to bear."