Under the unprecedented tariff shock, Chinese cross - border sellers are struggling to survive at the limit.

Author | Zhang Ziyi

Editor | Yuan Silai

This is a week that will be written into the world trade history.

On April 8th, Eastern Time in the United States, the US further raised the so - called “reciprocal tariffs” on Chinese products exported to the US, which were previously announced to be 34%, by 50% to 84%. Coupled with the previous 20% tariff, the US tariffs on Chinese products will reach 104%. On April 10th, this figure reached 125%.

In addition to these tariffs, on April 8th, 2025, local time in the US, the US announced that starting from May 2nd, 2025, parcels worth less than $800 sent from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong to the US will no longer enjoy tax - free treatment and will be subject to a 90% tariff on their value or a $75 tariff per piece (increased to $150 per piece after June 1st, 2025). The T86 customs clearance policy that has boosted the rapid development of Shein and Temu may no longer exist.

The Chinese cross - border e - commerce industry has entered its most turbulent period.

After the tariff increase exceeded 100%, sellers have become numb to the numbers. Waiting and seeing, uneasiness and anxiety have become the main emotions of cross - border e - commerce sellers recently. No one can predict the direction of world trade, nor can anyone anticipate what tomorrow's news will be.

But as businessmen, they also remain quite optimistic.

This group of cross - border sellers firmly believe in China's manufacturing capabilities. In this country with the most comprehensive global supply chain, whether they are brand - type sellers or small and medium - sized sellers, they will repeatedly tell us: the world cannot do without Made in China. Currently, the only things troubling them are whether to raise prices, the necessity of price hikes, and the ability to optimize the supply chain.

The game between countries cannot stop the flow of business. “No one will give up the US market” is also a key phrase. No seller is willing to abandon the world's largest consumer electronics market, even if it means paying a higher price. Under the grand narrative, the instincts of businessmen will still prevail over differences in stance again and again.

We interviewed three cross - border sellers. They have different scales, business models, and backgrounds. What they have in common is that they have been in the foreign trade and cross - border industries for many years and have witnessed the industry's turmoil and vitality. They have both consensus and differences, which depend on their different roles, and thus can provide different perspectives and possibilities for more people.

In the stormy waves, it takes courage to stand at the forefront of the tide. These sellers embody the perseverance and flexibility of countless small and medium - sized entrepreneurs. The desire for survival will help them overcome difficulties time and time again.

Jeff, a brand - type cross - border seller of 3C products:

Tariffs need to be discussed from several aspects. From the perspective of imports, it is necessary to check the raw materials imported from the US, such as electronic components and plastic particles. Some of them may not be of US origin, and even if they are from US companies, the production location may not be in the US. Therefore, from the perspective of the supply chain, it is necessary to see if there are any US - related raw materials. If so, either raise the price or find alternative sourcing countries.

In terms of exports, within the next one or two months, the impact of tariffs may not be very significant yet, and the situation is relatively stable. Basically, the inventory shipped from China usually lasts for at least a month. However, after this batch of inventory is used up, I estimate that on the one hand, the ports may be congested because customs officials don't know what to do; on the other hand, our costs will increase, and we may really have to raise prices. After the price increase, the demand from US consumers may decline, especially for non - essential products.

We are also conducting internal checks on the supply chain, but there is no clear solution yet. For us, first of all, we need to check the Apple - related components, and also pay attention to some chips produced in the US by European companies.

The localization rate of our products is quite high. Except for the part that requires Apple's MFI certification, we have avoided using US - sourced materials as much as possible. However, there are still some uncertain situations. For example, it is not clear if there will be any problems with products produced by US companies in Taiwan, China, and then directly shipped from Taiwan to the Chinese mainland. Currently, no one can give us an answer.

People in the industry are quite anxious. Last night at one o'clock in the morning, people in various groups were still talking about tariffs. Currently, it is just a matter of anxiety. In one to two months, the market will become even more troublesome.

I think the impact of tariffs is greatest on the following types of companies: first, those without core competitiveness, relying on low - price sales and small - parcel shipments; second, companies with replaceable supply chains, such as those with technology supply chains in Southeast Asia and Latin America; third, companies with tight cash flows. Currently, the uncertainty in cross - border e - commerce has increased, and it is not clear when contracts can be signed and payments can be received. After remittance, the situation of the RMB exchange rate may cause the gross profit margin to disappear without notice, and then the business cannot continue; fourth, companies with a relatively high proportion of the US market, which may account for 60% to 80% of the company's revenue. Now they are in an awkward situation.

We will no longer focus on the US market. Previously, the US market accounted for more than 50% of our business, and now we have controlled it to less than 30%. We made adjustments in the past two years, partly for growth and partly to consider the risks of the trade war. Fortunately, we made these adjustments, otherwise, we would be in big trouble now.

To be honest, it doesn't make much sense to speed up replenishment now. If the tariffs take effect immediately, replenishment won't help.

If the tariffs increase in the future, I will definitely raise prices. Why not? Originally, the tariff increase was expected to be between 20% and 50%, but now it has exceeded 100%. After the increase exceeds 100%, it doesn't matter whether the tariff increases or not, because there is no competitiveness anyway. The 3C industry is relatively better, as there are not many replaceable industrial chains in the world. In some industries, such as clothing and footwear, there are alternative industries, so even if you raise the price, you won't be able to sell the products.

To tell the truth, we are also waiting and seeing about the price increase. If our peers don't engage in a price war and raise prices together, I have no problem. Chinese manufacturers should raise prices collectively. It is unreasonable for some Chinese suppliers to be pressured by US retailers to bear the tariff costs. Many Chinese cross - border products have few alternatives in the world. For example, DJI drones can raise prices because of their brand strength.

There are few places in the world that can replace China in producing many light industrial products and electronic products. For audio products such as speakers and headphones, even if they are produced in Vietnam, the bosses are mostly Chinese, and the materials are basically imported from China. Chinese enterprises have the confidence to raise prices.

Many export - oriented companies may not even have a 20% gross profit margin. How can they cover a 100% tariff? It's actually very difficult for those who operate in a compliant manner.

No matter what the final tariff situation is, raising prices is basically the only way for cross - border e - commerce sellers.

In the future, the US market may be divided into two situations. During the pandemic, Trump issued cash to stimulate consumption. If he does the same during this tariff negotiation, it may have no impact on business, and the demand may even increase. However, if the situation gets worse, prices will rise, and ordinary people will have less money, so non - essential products will definitely be affected.

If there is a rush to buy, the conversion rate suddenly increases, and the order volume increases, we need to prepare to raise prices. Otherwise, it will be troublesome if the goods are sold out. If the demand decreases, we still can't lower the price because of the increased tariff costs. Raising prices is basically the only option.

Currently, there are no obvious changes in the sales volume and customs clearance situation in the US market. Let's wait and see. The current situation is like an earthquake wave, a bit chaotic. For example, logistics providers are definitely asking everywhere: how is the inbound cargo situation, and is there a queue at customs? If there is an official notice of a logistics price increase, the company will also be in a tense state. The exchange rate is also a concern. We need to study and predict whether to hold US dollars and whether the RMB will appreciate or depreciate.

The only problem now is that Chinese people like to compete with each other. In fact, it's okay to raise prices. Just do it. Customers can choose whether to buy or not.

Li Xingrui, a medium - large cross - border seller in the intelligent ecosystem vertical category, Dingrui Intelligent Ecosystem:

The products I operate, such as intelligent electric transportation, smart home, intelligent consumer electronics, intelligent pet products, and intelligent health and beauty products, are all within the scope of the tariff increase. Some of them have been seriously affected. I'll just talk about two types of products.

The first is intelligent electric transportation. The US has always imposed additional tariffs on Ebike products. Since I started doing cross - border e - commerce in 2014, because of our early layout, we have created the balance bike and Ebike brand “SWAGTRON”. We use a compliant traditional export model and have our own subsidiary companies in Hong Kong and the US for local operations. Compared with other sellers, we have a slight advantage.

Now, as the tariff situation becomes more and more intense, it will have a great impact on both offline and online Ebike sellers. Moreover, the threshold for cycling products is very high, and the requirements for battery safety certification are particularly strict. If the tariffs increase, the logistics costs will also increase significantly, making it even more difficult to do business in an already highly competitive market.

The second is intelligent consumer electronics. China is the world's manufacturing factory and has the most complete supporting supply chain. The fundamental reason why we have been able to do cross - border e - commerce for a long time, starting from traditional foreign trade, is that our supply chain is very deep and comprehensive. The technology industry is highly competitive and cut - throat. After the US crackdown, it will be even more difficult. In the past, we could solve the tariff problem by transferring the supply chain, but now countries like Vietnam have also been subject to tariff increases. Moreover, considering all aspects, it is better to stay in China, as we have advantages in terms of a complete supply chain, price, and labor. Transferring out doesn't make sense.

Of course, the issues of tariffs and Sino - US trade frictions have always existed. Everyone has gotten used to it, like a frog being slowly boiled in warm water. We just didn't expect it to be so intense this time, unprecedentedly intense.

In terms of coping strategies, first, China has a very complete set of supporting industries. We can optimize the supply chain or the intermediate links. Compress a little in each link to achieve win - win results; second, currently, we are all focusing on brand - building overseas. Continuously increase the global brand layout to enhance the competitiveness of technology and innovation, make the products more refined, and improve the product's premium and popularity. China is the world's factory. Even if the tariff pressure is high, unless Americans stop using these products, there are no other countries with a mature and complete supply chain. They can only purchase from China indirectly; third, don't put all your eggs in one basket. The cross - border e - commerce industry has enough confidence to optimize the product supply chain. China accounts for such a large share of the world market. If one area doesn't work, another will. Don't just focus on the US market. Everyone should continue to expand globally, develop platforms and channels, and don't just compete in the US market.

For cross - border e - commerce sellers, we have various optimization methods. According to common practice, first, price increases are definitely necessary. If the product has strong monopoly power, no matter how much the price is increased, there will still be customers. However, if the products are highly homogeneous, a small price increase won't solve the problem, and customer loss will be serious. There is a balance to be considered here; second, the issue of brand. For example, Anker and DJI have high brand awareness and strong recognition overseas. For products like DJI, which have a very high global monopoly, it doesn't matter whether the price is increased by one dollar or 100 dollars. Why not raise the price? But for new brands, if the price is increased, they will have less cost - effectiveness and lower technological content, and will be in a more passive position.

Third, for most cross - border sellers, they can only use a combination of multiple methods, such as slightly increasing the price, compressing the supply chain cost, optimizing logistics, and promoting through multiple in - platform and off - platform channels. Selling on multiple platforms may result in less profit but no loss. It's all about weighing the product's monopoly degree, market share, technological content, brand premium ability, supply chain, and optimization ability. We can't rely solely on price increases.

After the tariff increase, cost digestion is a big problem. Some small sellers may consider using non - tax - refund methods due to the high operational difficulty. I have always operated in a compliant manner, so my costs are higher, and the turnover cycle is longer. For example, the process from company operation to export tax refund is quite time - consuming and labor - intensive.

We can compress some costs at the supply chain end, but the scope is limited. Large companies can still reduce costs if their production volume is sufficient, but for small companies, if they try to compress costs, the factories may simply abandon them.

The cost of overseas warehouses will definitely increase. After the cancellation of the T86 policy, everyone will use overseas warehouses. I estimate that there will be a wave of peak orders for overseas warehouses. The cost of domestic direct shipping for sellers has increased so much. Unless they can bear the increased tariff costs , they have to use overseas warehouses. Whether sellers can bear the cost of overseas warehouses is also a question.

Currently, I don't plan to adjust the product categories, but I will delete some products with low profit margins. I will keep the products closely related to people's lives. However, if the profit of a product is low, there is basically no point in continuing to do it. It also depends on the sales volume of the product. If there is a possibility of increasing sales in the long - term, then continue. If there is no hope for the future and the cost continues to increase in the short - term, then definitely stop.

The US's continuous tariff increase is harmful to everyone. I have considered expanding to other sites and platforms, but I still won't give up Amazon and the US market. The US is the world's largest electronic consumer market. Generally speaking, I don't think anyone will give up the US market.

Lin Feng, a small Amazon seller:

Previously, I was engaged in Temu's full - managed business. By the end of last year, I decided to give it up. The main reason was that both the profit and sales volume were poor. The profit margin was less than 10% at that time, so it was completely meaningless to continue. Moreover, Temu's buyers also told us directly that we should switch to semi - managed as soon as possible, and they would no longer provide traffic support for full - managed.

Now I'm back to doing FBA warehouse business on Amazon. If I do semi - managed, I don't have the advantage of overseas warehouses. It's better for me to ship the goods to the FBA warehouse. For us platform sellers, no matter what happens, the Amazon platform is the safest.

There is a very interesting thing. Amazon is making great efforts to promote its low - price store business, but they haven't made it public. Many of my friends have received emails from Amazon inviting them to join the low - price store.

I feel that sellers on Amazon who can achieve a daily order volume of two or three hundred (and operate multiple SKUs) will receive the invitation email. There should be an internal selection mechanism, but the order volume requirement is not high. My account hasn't received the email because I sold very few products before.

My seller friends all find it quite amazing and don't know how Amazon will carry out this business after the cancellation of the small - value exemption policy. However, friends who have received the invitation are generally willing to try to join this business. For sellers, having an additional sales channel is definitely a good thing, and the cost of trial and error is not high. The value of a single product is only a few dollars, and I can accept shipping dozens or hundreds of them.

Regarding the tariff issue, I contacted the manager of Amazon Fresh. They said to suspend shipments first and wait for their notice. I don't know what's going on. Actually, I personally think that the impact of tariff increases on small Amazon sellers is not as serious as expected. Even if the tariffs increase significantly, reaching 100% or even 200%, it's a good thing,