Why can't the 10-trillion-yuan real estate enterprises be included in the symposium?

In November 2018, the participants of the Private Enterprise Symposium were: Liu Jiren, Lu Weiding, Wang Xiaolan, Sun Piaoyang, Lu Yong, Tang Xiaoyou, Liu Hanyuan, Tan Jianfeng, Liu Yi, Geng Zhe.

In February 2025, the participants of the Private Enterprise Symposium were: Huang Daifang, Lei Jun, Leng Youbin, Liang Wenfeng, Liu Yonghao, Ma Huateng, Ma Yun, Nan Cunhui, Qi Xiangdong, Ren Zhengfei, Wang Chuanfu, Wang Xingxing, Yu Renrong, Zeng Yuqun.

From Neusoft, Wanxiang, Times, Hengrui, SenseTime, Tongwei, to Xiaomi, HFANG, Unitree, Will Semiconductor, CATL, wherever innovation is needed to create a new world, that is where private enterprises have the most room for development.

If we compare China's economic volume of 134.9 trillion yuan to a knife, agriculture is the handle, which is a safe area. Manufacturing is the back of the knife, providing a stable structural support and counterweight. And now, technology is the blade, the most advanced and sharp part.

In the AI era, the development of technology and traditional manufacturing have become two types. The latter was born in industrialization, standardization, and large-scale production. Technology is the source, but enterprise management and discipline are the body. For the former, the spirit of innovation is 1, and everything else is 0.

In the global pattern where technology cannot be bought, the difficulty of innovation has increased by N times. Therefore, it is more dependent on private enterprises that are less affected by the traditional enterprise management system.

Therefore, the guests at the Private Enterprise Symposium are all those who bravely stand at the forefront of the new era.

01 

At this year's Private Enterprise Symposium, there is a saying that is like a historical record: Private enterprises have flourished along with the great process of reform and opening up.

However, in each stage, the types of private enterprises that thrive in the market will be different.

In the early stage of the system transformation, the "profiteers" were the first to rise. Even Wang Shi was no exception.

Between the initial completion of the transition and 2008, the most popular private entrepreneurs were in manufacturing and home appliances.

In the nearly ten years after 2008, it was the mobile Internet and real estate.

Since 2018, the most valued have been hard technology and cutting-edge technology.

This is the result of the law of economic development.

In 1978, the economic system began to break the ice. The main contradiction to be solved in the first stage was the shortage of materials and the reconstruction of the system for the participation of "labor, capital, and factors" in distribution. Therefore, basic manufacturing and traders played an important role in "filling the gaps" and bringing increments to the regional market.

When China gradually became the "world's factory" with the demographic dividend, within less than 20 years, the productive forces advanced by leaps and bounds. Cities such as Yiwu, Kunshan, and Changzhou rose through manufacturing. At the same time, basic industrial products and daily necessities were no longer scarce, and some people became rich. The talent dividend and wealth accumulation accumulated through education began to promote the accelerated development of the mobile Internet and real estate.

When people have money, the money will inevitably flow to consumption and assets.

Therefore, in the period of rapid economic development in every country, there will be a big explosion in the real estate industry. It is not only a monetary phenomenon but also a by-product of economic development.

02

Talent and capital, these two major factors require accumulation over time. From the beginning of the "reform and opening up" to after China's accession to the WTO, we have gradually completed this accumulation stage.

The high growth, large scale, and high housing prices in China's real estate are the result and demonstration of the continuous accumulation of money and people.

In 2009, the urbanization rate reached about 50%, and a large number of people entered the cities;

In 2009, China's GDP exceeded 5 trillion US dollars; in 2010, it replaced Japan as the world's second-largest economy;

The 4 trillion yuan bailout was introduced, and the liquidity of social capital increased significantly;

The third baby boom from 1986 to 1990 entered the society around 2010;

In 2011, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in the country exceeded 20,000 yuan per person. The "six wallets" housing purchase trend emerged.

Driven by capital, demand, policies, and the wealth effect, private real estate enterprises became "those who bravely stand at the forefront" in this stage.

In this stage, real estate and local fiscal revenue, infrastructure, and investment "complemented each other". Real estate enterprises were not only frequent visitors on the rich list but also guests of local governments.

However, under the crazy productivity of more than 50 million real estate people, within ten years, houses have changed from a scarce commodity to a structurally surplus commodity.

According to the census data, the per capita housing area in urban areas of the country was 30.3 square meters in 2010; in 2020, the per capita housing construction area in urban areas of China reached 38.6 square meters.

In the three nodes of 2000, 2010, and 2020, the average number of housing units per household in urban areas of China was 0.92, 1.01, and 1.06 respectively.

Housing is no longer scarce, and the "three red lines" were finally introduced. Private real estate enterprises ushered in a large-scale exit.

According to the statistics of CRIC, among the top 10 real estate enterprises in the 2024 operating list, there are only two private enterprises. The combined operating amount of the two enterprises accounts for only 10.2%.

Image source: CRIC

In the next three years, the share of private real estate enterprises is likely to continue to shrink.

Among the top 10 new goods value of real estate enterprises in 2024, there is only one private real estate enterprise: Binjiang.

Among the top 15, there are only two private real estate enterprises: Binjiang, and the non-famous industry dark horse Ningbo Jiangshan Wanli Real Estate. Their goods value accounts for only 8.55%.

The other 91.45% of the new goods value throughout the year is in the hands of state-owned and central enterprises.

Image source: CRIC

The way out for a non-scarce industry is only to "improve the products". This also means that its utilization of capital will be relatively inefficient.

Real estate is also a heavy financial attribute with a large amount of capital occupation, and a single project can reach a volume of several billion yuan. It is obviously not an ideal option to let private capital with an innovative spirit be inefficiently involuted in it.

In the stage of "saturated productivity" in real estate development, the future of private real estate enterprises is either in the top-end products or in the direction of asset operation. These two areas are non-standard fields where advantages cannot be made only by capital and standardized management.

In Ma Huateng's words: You haven't done anything wrong, you just got old.

No one can stand at the forefront forever, especially after the rush of capital.

This article is from the WeChat public account "Future Habitat", by Xiaowujian Dawu. 36Kr is authorized to publish this article.