TikTok死生14小时：全球化幻想的终结｜深氪

An argument soon broke out, and the discussion had completely deviated from the event itself. The conversation ended with an insult. The merchant who sought positive signals but failed said, "What are you?"

At 10 a.m. local time on January 17, 11 p.m. Beijing time, the US Supreme Court ruled that TikTok's "Ban if not sold" act does not violate the First Amendment.

This result could already be glimpsed in the Supreme Court's 2.5-hour debate a week ago.

Let's turn back the clock to a week ago, that is, at 3 a.m. local time on January 10. A long queue had already formed outside the courthouse. These people needed to wait in the cold weather with accumulated snow for seven hours. Only in this way could they compete for the only 50 places open to the public among hundreds of people.

For law school students, this would be an unprecedented and groundbreaking court debate; for TikTok and the merchants who share a common destiny with the platform, this is a life-and-death moment.

The lawyer representing TikTok in the court hearing is Noel Francisco, who has rich litigation experience and was also the Deputy Attorney General during Trump's previous term.

Francisco spoke pure American English and calmly presented his viewpoints - "The 'Ban if not sold' act cannot meet any review standards", "The act is extremely incomplete and ignores the most obvious and least restrictive alternative solutions", "The act should be preliminarily prohibited to allow the court to fully consider this significant issue".

But the calm state was soon broken. The judges began to ask questions, and interruptions occurred one after another, "You ignore Congress's concerns that China will manipulate TikTok's content and obtain and collect information of US citizens." Concerns about national security outweighed respect for freedom of speech.

In the following week, various news came in a flurry. Stakeholders saw "hope" several times - TikTok's CEO Zhou Shouzi was invited to attend the inauguration ceremony of US President Trump; the Biden administration stated that it would not enforce the TikTok ban that was originally planned to take effect on January 19.

But the situation still took a sharp turn. The Supreme Court ultimately ruled in favor of the ban. Some legal professionals familiar with the US judiciary believe that this is almost a foregone conclusion.

At around 8:50 p.m. EST on January 18, TikTok began to push a shutdown notice to users: We are sorry that a US law banning TikTok will come into effect on January 19 and force us to temporarily suspend our services. We are working as quickly as possible to restore our services in the US. Thank you for your support. Please stay tuned.

Almost simultaneously, merchants also received a similar message, and TikTok Shop will also cease operations on the 19th. An employee of a cross-border e-commerce company sighed, "This is really pressing the pause button."

The impact is still expanding. Users soon found that ByteDance's overseas versions of Jianying, CapCut, Lemon8, Gauth, and Hypic also pushed notices to stop services to US users.

The only glimmer of hope left is Trump. The former US president who once issued an executive order to promote the ban and sale of TikTok is considering using an executive order to save TikTok from the crisis after more than four years. Before the Supreme Court's judgment was finalized, Trump had stated that he considered issuing an executive order after taking office to suspend the "Ban if not sold" act of TikTok for 60 to 90 days. During this period, he can still work to promote the sale of TikTok.

Trump did bring a "turnaround". At 11 p.m. local time on January 19, he published a long article stating not to let TikTok shut down, making a commitment to TikTok's service providers that they will not be held responsible. He also expressed the hope of leading the establishment of a joint venture with a US company holding more than 50% of the shares.

However, 36Kr learned from insiders that TikTok has not reached an agreement with the US government.

The pop-up window appeared again. Shortly after Trump posted the tweet, TikTok couldn't wait to say "Welcome!" A person engaged in overseas brand marketing commented: Drama.

There are also continuous discoveries of the inability of this "presidential rescue" - not all states resumed services immediately, TikTok cannot be downloaded from the Apple App Store, and the live-streaming function is still unavailable.

Even though Trump promptly revoked many of Biden's executive orders, an undeniable fact is that the "Ban if not sold" of TikTok is no longer an executive order but a law. There are only two paths in front of Trump: either promoting the sale or re-legislating, both of which are extremely challenging.

The fate of TikTok seems so shaky and dramatic, not only because people on this side of the ocean are unfamiliar with the operation of the US political system and the power game between several parties, but also because people only believe what they want to believe. At least before January 10, few ordinary people realized the severity of this crisis.

"Unnoticed" Crisis

In May 2024, Zeng Fanzhou and his partner hit it off and entered the US TikTok Shop. Zeng Fanzhou, who has rich TikTok operation experience, and his partner who studied in the US, both believed that TikTok at that time was an excellent entrepreneurial platform and was in a bonus period.

Although TikTok had just experienced a ban turmoil at that time - from March to April 2024, the US House of Representatives and the Senate successively passed the "Protect Americans from Foreign Hostile Forces Controlled Application Infringement Act" with an overwhelming majority of votes, that is, the "Ban if not sold" act of TikTok. Subsequently, Biden also signed this act, and the entire process took only more than a month.

Zeng Fanzhou said, "At that time, all of us were very optimistic because we knew that it would definitely be okay." He described his mentality when facing the above news at that time - "It's just for fun."

And the basis for his conclusion is TikTok's tenacious resistance in the past few years. "Trump also banned it once, but he failed."

In the first half of 2024, there were not many merchants entering the US TikTok Shop, with sufficient traffic bonuses, and the platform also provided many support policies. It was indeed a bonus period for merchants. At that time, the daily GMV of Zeng Fanzhou's store once reached nearly $10,000, and behind this was a team of less than 10 people. It was a high-spirited time.

Like Zeng Fanzhou, few merchants stopped because of these news.

Andre is one of the first batch of sellers in the US TikTok Shop. Before October 2024, the GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) ratio of his business on TikTok Shop and Temu could be evenly split. After October, he chose to "All In TikTok" because he felt TikTok's "opening the floodgates".

In order to explode the sales during the Black Friday promotion, TikTok Shop did relax the admission system for compliant merchants. In November last year, TikTok's US cross-border store updated its settlement policy. Merchants can apply for opening a store as long as they have local inventory preparation conditions and a business license, and there is no longer a requirement to provide an operation certificate of a third-party e-commerce platform.

On November 29 of the same year, the poster released by TikTok Shop showed that on the "Black Friday" day, its overall sales in the US market exceeded $100 million. Everything seemed to be developing in a positive direction.

In the past two months, the带货主播Heizi of the US TikTok Shop deliberately shifted the focus of the live broadcast to the attention on herself when live-streaming, hoping to attract a group of fixed fans and purchasing groups that belong to her, laying the foundation for leaving the company to work independently in the future.

She said, "The account I'm currently broadcasting on was successfully launched in three days, and in a week, someone from TikTok officially came to communicate with me. For me, this is a great opportunity to cooperate deeply with TikTok, not as an employee of the company but as an independent带货主播." In her plan, there is also the possibility of developing in the direction of a talent or an internet celebrity in the later stage to deeply cultivate the US market.

A month ago, there were still TikTok employees sharing the joy of getting an offer on social platforms. Someone curiously asked, "Isn't it going to be banned?" The question was quickly rejected, "The offers for May have already been sent out."

As the ban date approaches, of course, there is also anxiety spreading.

On January 10, the exhibition FGVCon held by Fast Moss, the largest third-party data platform of TikTok, was overcrowded. Every talent, merchant, or service provider who gave a speech on the stage could attract a large number of people to watch, and the entrances and exits were crowded by people who could not enter the VIP seats.

Under the lively scene, a hidden topic was widely raised - What if TikTok is banned? Some service providers who have a close cooperation with TikTok already have a response to this question - "We don't know about the platform, but our work is advancing as usual."

Advancing as usual is also the internal state of TikTok. Everyone's work is still ongoing. Many employees are overwhelmed by the annual summary. The ban is a well-known, tacit but unmentionable topic. According to an internal employee, some local employees chose to leave, and many are waiting for the severance package. There is also some ambiguous reassurance - his leader said, "Even if it is really banned, there will be a buffer process."

It was not until January 10, when the court hearing of the TikTok "Ban if not sold" act by the Supreme Court ended, and the bad news spread from foreign media to domestic media, and then rapidly spread to countless chat boxes and social groups, that many people finally began to face a cruel truth that TikTok is really going to be banned.

The moment the news came out, it was like dropping water into boiling oil.

Pressing the Pause Button

On January 10, Zeng Fanzhou was sitting in the office chatting with his partner who had returned to China when suddenly the message of TikTok's final judgment in the Supreme Court was disclosed on their phones. The conversation stopped abruptly, and the air almost solidified.

Just two hours ago, they had just delivered a payment of more than 100,000 yuan to the factory. In the US warehouse, there are also hundreds of thousands of yuan worth of goods in stock. At this moment, Zeng Fanzhou finally began to seriously consider what they would do if TikTok were banned. Coming to his senses, Zeng Fanzhou pulled his partner and other colleagues to hold a meeting for the whole afternoon to discuss countermeasures.

Since January 10, the relevant news of TikTok has been continuously expanding, reversing repeatedly, and with the support of big data, it envelopes everyone who cares about the result.

Heizi once wanted to escape these overwhelming news, not thinking or looking, only focusing on the increasingly higher conversion rate in front of her. But the bad news came one after another, and she had to face it. "If I don't think about it, it will be too late. I can't escape. I have to think about a way out", "But as soon as I think about it, I feel depressed."

Heizi also felt the anxiety of customers and merchants - the closer it is to the 19th, the more customers ask if TikTok is about to be banned and whether the orders can be received. The speed of merchants replenishing goods is also slowing down. "Everyone is gambling, but they don't dare to bet too much."

Kimberly Rhoades is a funny blogger with 3 million fans on the TikTok platform. On January 17, she released a video, humming "Taps" for 30 seconds. This is a song that is played at funerals. She told her fans, "It's my honor to make you happy."

While TikTok users and talents are alarmed and sad for the upcoming ban, they rushed to Apps with Chinese backgrounds such as Xiaohongshu and Lemon8 with anger, prompting these two Apps to top the App Store download chart one after another.

Vaguely, the source of this counter-trend "wall-breaking" can be traced back - TikTok users gave up overseas social media such as YouTube and Ins, and with anger towards the US government, they searched for the Chinese version of Douyin from the App Store. But the first one that popped up was Xiaohongshu. Thus, an internet exchange between domestic and overseas netizens worthy of being recorded in the history of the internet occurred.

The wheels of time are still rolling forward, not stopping because of astonishment or sadness. All parties in the interest chain began to find ways to deal with this crisis. Before the final verdict arrives, the most commonly used method is to press the pause button.

Since January 10, Zeng Fanzhou has begun to gradually stop cooperating with talents and no longer expand new accounts and stores. At the same time, the talents on the platform have almost come to a standstill. More than one merchant has reported to 36Kr that since the 10th, the feedback rate of talents has been much lower, and it is difficult to find talents to connect with.

A big seller on Amazon and Shopee smelled the crisis earlier. They began to reduce their investment more than a month ago, and the monthly turnover on TikTok Shop dropped from a peak of more than 1 million US dollars to about 300,000 US dollars.

This big seller is also advertising on TikTok to attract traffic to their online stores. According to its founder, the company's advertising investment in this aspect has also decreased by about 30% in the past month.

Gravity Media, a marketing company that helps overseas brands expand the overseas market, narrowly escaped this crisis with its rich and multi-platform talent resources. Their business manager, Tan Kaiyang, just signed a big order with a budget of one million recently. It is expected to allocate 20%-40% of the budget to the TikTok channel, but considering the many variables of TikTok, the specific allocation will be determined after the New Year.

The bad news came more unexpectedly than imagined. After the Supreme Court's judgment came out on January 17, 36Kr asked about the situation of this order again, and the other party said that the allocation of the TikTok channel would be temporarily suspended.

At the same time, in order to reduce losses, while all parties on the platform are pressing the pause button, they are also pressing the accelerator button.

As the deadline approaches, Zeng Fanzhou not only did not reduce the investment but also increased the marketing efforts in order to sell the existing inventory as soon as possible. Although they can also move to other platforms to continue selling goods, the rules of each platform are different, and they do not have enough confidence.

Andre also has a more radical move. Recently, he has listed nearly a thousand SKUs (Stock Keeping Unit, referring to a single commodity item) that he has on hand - this is a risky move. Many of the single items that merchants increase in quantity have infringement acts, but with the ban approaching, they have to take the risk of being sued and frantically launch new products. In addition, among these many commodities, only a very small part is suitable for the TikTok platform, but he can't care about whether it is suitable or not now.

Some changes are also taking place. Zeng Fanzhou and Andre, who once "All In TikTok", one is looking for a second development platform and firmly stated that he will not invest all in it again; the other, in addition to taking two steps at the same time, has also begun to use his overseas warehouse resources to try to transform into a service provider.

The cross-border e-commerce company where Xiaobai is located held a meeting for four or five days after January 10. The core issue discussed was whether to take the long-termism route or make quick money in the future. Under the turmoil, people began to doubt the possibility of long-term development.

Heizi's original plan to deeply cultivate the US TikTok has also begun to change. "As a mature主播, I am not afraid of immediately facing unemployment if the US TikTok is banned because there are other regions that can be done." "But I will be very anxious. The situation of the US TikTok makes me worry whether the same situation will occur in other regions."

In fact, before the layer of window paper of this ban was completely pierced, TikTok had already been affected to a certain extent.

In early 2024, according to Bloomberg, the US TikTok Shop had set an annual GMV target of $17.5 billion, but according to 36Kr's exclusive information, this target was only completed by about $8 billion, less than half of the expected. This is partly due to the difficulty of developing live-streaming e-commerce locally, and also