In 2025, will selling cars still rely on traffic?
Author | Han Yongchang Editor | Zhang Bowen
Too many people don't believe that Lei Jun, who has no car-making experience, can succeed with his first car. But unexpectedly, even though "there are difficulties everywhere", the Xiaomi SU7 has achieved remarkable success.
With a huge amount of traffic, Xiaomi Automobile delivered 135,000 vehicles in just 9 months and aims to reach 300,000 in 2025. It took Li Auto 8 years to achieve the 300,000 target, while NIO and XPeng haven't reached it even after 10 years.
Driven by Xiaomi, traffic has once become the most "core" technology in the automotive industry in 2024. In the terminal market, traffic seems to be equivalent to sales volume.
The once dull and conservative car companies began to chase the trend. Their press conferences were like a burst of energy, with rapid speeches, complaint sessions, making the simple press conferences seem lively and interesting, but actually they were lengthy and dull. Eventually, they either became awkward or criticized.
The heads of car companies are even more uncomfortable. Even those over 60 years old have to come out for live broadcasts to promote their own products. An executive of a state-owned new energy brand even complained to 36Kr, "If I don't shoot short videos for a day, the group leader will scold me."
It wasn't until the end of the year that the automotive industry began to come to its senses. The overwhelming traffic is ultimately a flash in the pan. For Xiaomi, which has just entered the automotive industry, it is a necessary demand, but for experienced car companies, if they do well, it is at most an added bonus, and if they do not, it is like IM Motors apologizing to Xiaomi, lifting a rock only to drop it on their own feet.
The competition in the automotive industry ultimately has to return to technology and products, which is the most fundamental means to win the hearts of consumers.
The technological progress behind the traffic has also begun to emerge. Advanced intelligent driving has been rapidly popularized this year; the battery can be charged for 400 kilometers in 10 minutes; even new cars priced at around 100,000 yuan have used the 8155 cockpit chip that was once in high demand.
Now, the competition in 2024 has come to an end, and the competition in 2025 is bound to escalate. Are there products and technologies that can be directly transformed into competitive advantages and sales data, which are worthy of the industry's expectations?
「The Year of Extended-Range SUVs, Selling Cars Still Relies on Fuel Tanks」
Li Auto sold more than 500,000 vehicles in 2024 with its extended-range models. Leapmotor, which quickly shifted to extended-range products, has also become the second new force car company to achieve a single-quarter profit. AITO, Deepal, and others have also continuously demonstrated the market capability of extended-range products.
More and more car companies are beginning to embrace extended-range technology. Except for Tesla and NIO, almost all pure electric car companies have announced their entry into the extended-range market in 2024, and 2025 will also become the year of extended-range products.
But to make a good extended-range vehicle, a large battery capacity is the most basic requirement. Extended-range vehicle owners are accustomed to using the pure electric mode, which is why the charging stations of Tesla and NIO are most commonly visited by Li Auto owners.
Nowadays, the extended-range models with excellent market sales mostly have a single vehicle battery capacity of more than 40 degrees, and a pure electric cruising range of 300 kilometers. The extended-range new cars to be launched in 2025 obviously need to be developed based on this.
However, the larger the battery, not only does it require a larger chassis space for the vehicle, but also makes the price more expensive. Therefore, most new extended-range vehicles are targeting the medium and large SUV market above 200,000 yuan.
The AITO M8, which is benchmarked against the Li Auto L9, has already been announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. According to the normal listing schedule, it can be sold to the public in the first quarter. XPeng Motors' first extended-range model is also a large SUV, developed based on the G9.
IM Motors' first extended-range model is positioned as an SUV and is planned to be officially released in the first quarter of 2025. In addition to Changan Deepal S09, GAC Trumpchi S7, and Zeekr's extended-range models that have not yet been announced. The medium and large extended-range SUV market will undoubtedly be the most fiercely competitive segmented market in 2025.
Of course, these new cars will also face stronger competitors, namely the new cars equipped with BYD's fifth-generation DM system, such as the Denza N9, Tang L, etc. These models have better fuel economy and more competitive prices, and will obviously also be equipped with advanced intelligent driving in the future, with no less competitiveness.
In particular, the Tang L, which has not been updated for many years. According to 36Kr's understanding, this car was developed with Li Auto as the benchmark. It is equipped with a refrigerator, color TV, and large sofa, and is a flagship product of the Dynasty series to impact a higher price range, with excellent configuration.
As the three core technologies, they have now been mastered by more and more car companies. BYD has already understood this clearly. The newly launched Denza D9 even directly achieves ten-screen interconnection, taking the color TV feature to the extreme.
After extended-range SUVs have become the products that each car company focuses on building, the one under the greatest pressure is undoubtedly Li Auto. It's like BYD's sales success in 2023 led to many competitors imitating and competing for market share in 2024. Li Auto's excellent performance in 2024 has also led many car companies to plan to take a share of the "nanny car" market.
Li Auto's product definition ability is indeed outstanding, but even Tesla has been eroded by many market shares by the wolves. It is understandable that Li Auto has set a relatively conservative sales target of 700,000 units for 2025.
It is rather sad to say that nowadays, companies making electric vehicles in the Chinese market can only rely on fuel tanks to ensure sales, profitability, and even survival.
「Intelligent Driving Popularizes to 150,000 Yuan Vehicles, L3 is Emerging」
If 2024 is the opening year of the second half of the intelligentization of the automotive industry, then in 2025, the competition in the second half of the intelligentization will sweep across all car companies and even the vast majority of vehicle models.
Mid-level intelligent driving functions such as high-speed NOA and automatic parking will begin to become the core selling points of 150,000-yuan-level vehicles, and even move closer to 100,000-yuan-level vehicles.
This trend is already obvious in the XPeng MONA M03 and Aion RT models, and both new cars have achieved very successful sales.
The prerequisite for low-priced models to be equipped with mid-level intelligent driving is the reduction of the cost of the intelligent driving solution. This is not only due to the scale of the Chinese electric vehicle market, but also thanks to the efforts of chip and intelligent driving suppliers.
Whether it is the traditional TDA4VH, or the J6E and J6M released by Horizon at the 2024 Beijing Auto Show, or the Nvidia Orin N, there are already very rich choices of intelligent driving chips for mid and low-end models.
The solutions based on these chips are generally mainly integrated driving and parking functions, with a cost of several thousand yuan. Some even have a certain degree of urban NOA function, similar to the configuration of the MONA M03.
The efforts of BYD, the leader of the new energy vehicle industry, also make all car companies have to follow suit.
36Kr Automobile previously reported that starting from 2025, some BYD models will gradually deliver its self-developed mid-to-high-level intelligent driving solutions, including high-speed piloting and urban piloting.
If the intelligent driving delivery of BYD and other car companies goes smoothly, the Chinese electric vehicle industry will welcome the delivery of millions of mid-to-high-level intelligent driving vehicles in 2025. This is almost the total delivery of intelligent driving companies such as Li Auto, NIO, XPeng, and Huawei series.
This is a new opportunity for suppliers, and intelligent driving manufacturers have also made advance layouts. For example, Zhixing Auto Technology will reach a strategic cooperation with Horizon to develop an intelligent driving solution based on J6E, targeting the 100,000 - 150,000 mid-level intelligent driving market.
Chip manufacturers benefit even more. 2025 is the first year of delivery of Horizon Journey 6 series, and its shipment is expected to directly exceed 1 million pieces. "It will help more than 100 vehicle models to be equipped with mid-to-high-level intelligent driving functions and go on the market. Within the year, the shipment of its Journey family will exceed 10 million pieces." Yu Kai, the founder of Horizon, said recently.
Further advanced intelligent driving is also the focus of competition in 2025. The end-to-end has entered the 2.0 era, and the one-stage has become the key for major head manufacturers to compete. The further L3-level autonomous driving is also emerging.
At the end of 2024, advanced intelligent driving has reached the "parking space to parking space" experience. In 2025, when the technology is further upgraded, the L3-level pilot will increasingly become a reality, and users can truly release their hands and let the vehicle drive autonomously in specific scenarios.
Huawei has set an example. On January 13, Huawei's Parking Valet VPD, the world's first commercial airport pilot, was officially launched in Shenzhen. This pilot not only shows Huawei's technical capabilities, but more importantly, it represents a new breakthrough in liability division.
Jin Yuzhi, from Huawei's Intelligent Automotive Solution, said, "We have jointly launched an 'unworried parking' insurance with the insurance company. If there is a scratch or collision during the use of VPD automatic parking, it can be resolved through insurance."
In other words, during the use of VPD, there is a new division of accident liability, which has taken the first step towards the exploration of L3 intelligent driving in 2025.
Li Auto, XPeng and other car companies will obviously not fall behind. The competition is escalating, and advanced intelligent driving will also usher in a real turning point. Every company needs to invest more funds, computing power, and talents to rapidly iterate in order to remain in the first echelon of intelligent driving.
「Battery Prices Have Bottomed Out, Semi-Solid-State Batteries are Still Difficult to Mass Produce」
Looking back at 2024, the biggest topic in the power battery industry is the price reduction. The price of battery cells has dropped from 0.5 yuan/Wh at the beginning of the year to nearly 0.3 yuan/Wh. A 60-degree battery pack has a battery cell cost of less than 20,000 yuan, and this price is close to the industry's cost limit.
By the end of 2024, the battery industry showed a trend of concentrated recovery. Whether it is the leading enterprises or the second-tier battery factories, the operating rates have increased significantly, and even some production lines have reached full capacity. When the demand is boosted again, it means that the price has bottomed out, and there may be a possibility of a small price increase in 2025.
In terms of charging speed, fast charging in 2024 has rolled from 4C to 5C. In 2025, 6C technology will become the new star of the press conferences.
However, the models that support 4C fast charging are still difficult to find a suitable fast charging pile anytime and anywhere. Therefore, even if the 6C products are launched, their practicality will be greatly discounted, and it is difficult to boost the sales of pure electric vehicles.
In addition, although there will be more models with fast charging in 2025, it is still difficult to popularize fast charging to lower-priced models. This is not only a battery problem, but also requires the support of other vehicle components.
For example, a fast-charging battery that supports a 4C charging rate requires the vehicle to have a corresponding 800V high-voltage architecture, and the vehicle's design, major three electrical systems, and minor three electrical systems all need to be adjusted accordingly. The cost increase brought about is far more than just the battery. Without a scale advantage, it is difficult to quickly reduce the cost.
Therefore, to popularize fast charging more quickly, it is necessary to improve its practicality, that is, to keep up with the infrastructure, in order to complement each other.
In 2025, solid-state batteries are still the biggest expectation in the industry, but it seems that there will not be a big breakthrough.
At present, there are only two semi-solid-state battery products in the industry. One is NIO's 150-degree battery pack. Its unique battery swapping mode does not reflect the performance and data of the semi-solid-state battery throughout the vehicle's life cycle. And this product is only available for leasing and cannot be purchased outright, so it is not of reference value.
The other is the semi-solid-state battery pack equipped in the IM Motors L6 Light Year Edition, which is the semi-solid-state product that is most likely to be mass-produced at present.
According to IM Motors' statement at the beginning of 2024, the IM Motors L6 Light Year Edition equipped with a semi-solid-state battery can be delivered within the year. More importantly, it also has the performance and indicators to support large-scale industrialization: priced at 325,900 yuan, it supports a cruising range of thousands of kilometers and a fast charging rate of up to 3C.
However, as of January 2025, the IM Motors L6 Light Year Edition has not yet been officially delivered to users.
According to 36Kr's understanding, the semi-solid-state batteries currently used in electric vehicles, after increasing the energy density, are difficult to pass the battery thermal runaway experiment. And the semi-solid-state products that can pass the thermal runaway experiment will sacrifice some other performances, such as energy density or cycle life. This also goes against the original intention of solid-state batteries and even semi-solid-state batteries.
Therefore, except for allowing the company to rub the "solid-state battery" concept in the capital market, most companies have regarded semi-solid-state batteries as a chicken rib existence. Even the CEO of a battery company told 36Kr directly that the semi-solid-state batteries currently shipped are all supplied by the pilot production line and cannot be mass-produced by the mature production line.
Of course, this does not mean that semi-solid-state is as difficult as solid-state. Semi-solid-state batteries still have the possibility of mass production, but it is difficult to appear in 2025 for semi-solid-state batteries that take into account various superior performances and have controllable costs.
「Written at the End」
At the beginning of 2024, Wang Chuanfu, the chairman of BYD, publicly said that the industry is entering a three-year decisive battle.
2024 is the first year, and the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded 10 million for the first time, with the penetration rate exceeding 40%. In the second year that has arrived, the 100 People's Congress of New Energy Vehicles predicts that the domestic penetration rate of new energy vehicles may reach about 55%.
The addition of millions of vehicles will make the market differentiation more obvious. The strong will become stronger, and the weak will become more marginal. The market of joint venture brands is continuously being squeezed by independent brands, and the competition among independent brands will also be more fierce.
Traffic marketing is difficult to become the focus of competition again. More and more car companies realize that technology is the key to the survival and development of enterprises.
The battery technology has no new stories to tell and will return to the essence of automotive parts. Intelligent driving technology will become a new growth pole to drive brand sales. Even BYD will quickly make up for this shortcoming and even has a tendency to catch up from behind. The technological iteration of the automotive industry is like rowing against the current; if you don't advance, you will retreat.
If the number of car companies that ultimately remain in the game does not exceed five, there are still too many players at present. In 2025, every car company must be on high alert, and the competition is still escalating. No one dares to relax their vigilance.