Beijing Real Estate Market | The Hottest Project and the Worst Deal in 2024

In 2024, among the new real estate projects in Beijing, there are a total of 10 projects with a transaction volume of more than 500 units.

Among them, there are 3 in Changping, 3 in Daxing, 2 in Fangshan, 1 in Chaoyang, and 1 in Tongzhou.

Projects with a transaction volume of more than 500 units in 2024. Data source: Beijing Real Estate Sales Ranking

A total of 14 projects with an annual transaction amount of more than 3 billion yuan are concentrated in Xicheng (1), Haidian (1), Chaoyang (5), Changping (3), Daxing (3), and Tongzhou (1).

Projects with a transaction amount of more than 3 billion yuan in 2024. Data source: Beijing Real Estate Sales Ranking

The above dozen projects constitute the popular sales map of the Beijing real estate market in 2024. If these projects are "removed", not only about 1/4 of the market sales and confidence will be lost, but also the most meaningful exploration of the real estate market in the confusing period.

However, the real estate market in 2024 not only gives a direction - presented by the popular sales projects, but also gives a warning - Those projects that cannot achieve good performance, and the wrong land acquisitions, will eventually become black holes, swallowing the team's confidence and the company's profits.

  01  

Some projects have reduced their prices and offered large discounts to stimulate buyers' emotions, which is still useful. For example, the average transaction price of Xishan Guanfu has decreased by about 2,000 yuan/square meter compared to 4 months ago, and 30 more units have been successfully sold. Huaxiang Yihao, which became very popular in the first half of the year, also became popular by reducing prices. Up to now, 123 units have been signed online, with an average transaction price of 54,729 yuan/square meter, which has shown its cost performance.

Zhongjian Yunjing, which only sold 18 units in the 4 months before the opening, decisively reduced its price after the heavy favorable policy of the real estate market on September 30. The average transaction price has dropped from 87,045 yuan/square meter to 81,252 yuan/square meter, with a unit price decrease of nearly 5,800 yuan/square meter. The price reduction has brought about good results: more than 90 units have been sold in the recent 3 months.

But there are still some projects. When the project opened, the popular sales posters were also released, and the publicity was also well done during the customer accumulation period. But at the end of the year, the performance is very poor.

The market is becoming more and more calm, and the limited buyer resources are gathering towards the top projects. These "neglected" projects have become real problem projects.

We have pulled out a list of projects from those that obtained pre-sale licenses in 2024, including 7 projects (considering the time factor of online signing, only projects that entered the market before August were selected).

Analyzing the problems of these projects may provide some reference for avoiding similar problems in future new projects.

Projects with a sales rate of less than 10% in the new market before August 2024 (Online signing number as of: January 6):

Data source: Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, compiled by Future Keqi

First of all, it should be said that the poor sales of these projects are not necessarily due to the inattentiveness of the operation team. After all, the real estate market in 2024 is the most difficult year in the past 10 years. Only when a real estate project achieves the best price, the best product, and the most value points, can it possibly stand out.

  02  

In this list, the most distributed area is Fengtai District.

It has to be said that Fengtai District is the most fiercely competitive area in 2024, without a doubt. The best-selling project in Fengtai District only sold 265 houses in a year.

In the inertial impression, the entire Fengtai District has been the main position to digest the improvement demand in the past few years, and a number of classic projects have emerged. The market increasingly recognizes Fengtai, and the product planning in Fengtai is also relatively large in scale, second only to Shunyi in terms of "black technology".

But in fact, there are only 3 projects in Fengtai District with a sales amount of more than 2 billion yuan in 2024. The entire Fengtai District can be described as a large "swindler's project".

The "tragedy" of Fengtai District has a main reason: It is a sandwich layer. It is difficult to reach the high-end constitution (location, resources, local customer groups) of Dongcheng District, Xicheng District, and Haidian District. At the same time, it does not have the low cost and positioning freedom of Daxing District.

Therefore, most of the projects in Fengtai District are taking the route of first-time improvement and second-time improvement, and are forced to face this part of customers in the market who do not have the fullest wallets, but have the most critical eyes. Moreover, in fact, due to historical planning reasons, the urban interface of many sections in Fengtai District is not good, and it is severely cut by railways, factories, and断头 roads.

Moreover, the supply in Fengtai District is very large. Almost every section will have several projects in direct competition, squeezing each other's living space in terms of price and product.

For example, Zhonghai Gongyuanli has to face the competition from Jianfa Jingyuan Phase II and Senyu Tiancheng. It does not have an advantage in location, and the house type is mediocre. In the first half of 2024, at an average transaction price of 66,300 yuan/square meter, only a single-digit number of houses were signed online. It was not until the end of the year when the price dropped to 62,400 yuan/square meter that 42 units were signed online.

The Fengtai Nanyuan project plot was acquired by Oriental Yuhong for 4.0135 billion yuan in October 2023. Later, a subsidiary of Zhonghai Real Estate subscribed for 95% of the equity of the Fengtai Nanyuan project company for 3.99 billion yuan. Up to now, the project has only about 320 million yuan in online signing and payment.

The Hesong Jiuli and Jingneng Xixianfu projects in the Dawayao section of Fengtai District are even worse. Both plots were sold at a high premium through bidding. The projects have also reduced their prices, improved their products, and done a good job in publicity, but the market just does not recognize them.

Before obtaining the certificate in June last year, the two projects were still competing with each other, but in the end, they became brothers in distress. More than half a year after the opening, they signed 22 units and 20 units online respectively, with an average of only 3-4 houses sold per month. The sales rate is disastrous.

Behind the failure of these two projects is the developers' overly optimistic view of the market in 2024. The projects are backed by Lize Business District and do have a specific customer group. But in fact, with the increase in the overall supply in Fengtai District, customers have been seriously diverted to Guogongzhuang and Xihongmen in Fengtai District. And the "brothers in distress" in Dawayao, although the projects are close to the subway, they are also next to the expressway and high-voltage lines, and the surrounding area lacks living facilities, and the price advantage is not obvious, so they can only bear this big problem.

The "brothers in distress" in Dawayao have bought a lesson for the entire market with blood and tears: It's already 2024. Don't have any illusions. Projects that cannot balance the three advantages of price, product, and location will only be more difficult to operate. This situation needs to be understood before entering the market.

  03  

The three projects, Juyan·Yanjingfu and Huihao Gongyuanli in Fangshan, and Zhuzong·Qingyuefu in Changping, have another common point: the price is not high, and the value is not obvious.

The Fangshan market is not inactive, but it is mainly concentrated in the Liangxiang-Changyang area. For the customers in the urban area, during the real estate bonus period, when the demand is forced to spill over, the Yancun and Doudian areas are recognized, but once the bonus disappears, these peripheral non-core sections are no longer recognized.

In particular, Huihao Gongyuanli is almost a ready-to-move-in property, but to be honest, the house type is very poor, and the location is extremely remote, and almost no non-local customers will buy it.

The location of Zhuzong·Qingyuefu is relatively better, and the transaction situation in the entire southern area of Changping is one of the best areas in Beijing in 2024. However, because the small environment around the project is not good, the price can only be lowered to compete in a differentiated way.

However, in the large section of southern Changping, the projects of companies such as Jianfa and Longfor have raised the product expectations of homebuyers. Therefore, after being educated by the products, the buyers are no longer satisfied with just "having a place to live", but gradually demand "living well".

99-square-meter house type map of Zhuzong·Qingyuefu. Source: Fangtianxia

Therefore, the lessons of these three projects are: First, try to avoid the non-core positions of the section, unless the product can achieve the ultimate cost performance; Second, when there is no location advantage, relying only on the price does not necessarily attract buyers, because a poor product means there will be a risk of asset liquidity in the future. The product should be one step ahead.

  04  

In fact, the market in the second half of 2024 is not very cold. In the entire second half of the year, nearly 22,000 commercial residential units were sold in Beijing, which is similar to the market in 2022.

Several rounds of new real estate policies such as 517 and 930 have played a very obvious role in boosting the recovery of market confidence.

The second-hand housing market is the most intuitive reflection of market activity. In 2024, the total transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing was 175,671 units, second only to 191,100 units in 2021, and significantly higher than that in 2022 (141,000 units) and 2023 (153,000 units).

However, the widening gap between the transaction volume of second-hand houses and new houses, and the increase in the proportion of luxury housing transactions in the new housing market, reflect another potential market voice: Many people are selling their non-quality assets, either holding cash for the winter or exchanging them for quality assets.

Online signing situation of second-hand residential houses in Beijing in 2024

Therefore, in this transitional stage where the market confidence is not so sufficient, only two types of products will be popular:

First, products with sufficient living value, with a not high total price, but a good living atmosphere;

Second, products with both location advantages and product advantages, which can form a quality crush on the same location products in the section in the future and win in the asset attribute end.