2024 Xiao Daye Annual Speech: Adaptation and Innovation, Finding New Opportunities in Changes.
On December 21, 2024, Xiao Daye's 2024 Annual Speech was held at the 1912 Zhenjiu Food Research Institute in Changsha, Hunan. 36Kr is the strategic cooperation media for this annual speech. The theme of the annual speech is "Adaptation and Innovation", and Xiao Daye, a leadership expert, well-known business blogger, and senior entrepreneurship mentor, said that the changes in this year are obvious to all. Where the future is going is not an individual confusion, but a collective unknown. Without lofty concepts and distant cases, he tried to explore together from his personal experiences and what he heard around him in the past year: What exactly has happened in the world? Where is the way forward for tomorrow?
The following is the streamlined full text of Xiao Daye's annual speech "Adaptation and Innovation - Finding New Opportunities in Changes".
Introduction: Every cloud has a silver lining
In May 1960, Field Marshal Montgomery of Britain, a famous World War II general, visited China and was received by the instructor. He said: "The three major campaigns you commanded can be compared with any great campaign in the world."
However, the instructor said: "The three major campaigns are nothing. Crossing the Chishui River four times is my proudest work." Compared with the three major campaigns with millions of people involved, when crossing the Chishui River, there were only 30,000 tired troops left after the number of troops decreased from 100,000.
It is said that the West Point Military Academy in the United States once selected this campaign as teaching material, and they simulated it countless times, but the final result was always a complete defeat. It lasted for three months, and almost every military operation was not planned in advance, but made on the spot. Eventually, it became an irreproducible military legend.
In March this year, I came to the former site of the Zunyi Conference to visit specially, trying to find the guiding significance for the current uncertain environment. Disappointingly, the tour guide only recited the commentary. So I explained it myself, and after returning, I made a video which became a hit.
Why are we so struggling now and why is everything so difficult?
The speech of Teacher Fu, the chief economist of Northeast Securities and a famous economist, at HSBC went viral on the Internet. The whole speech was pessimistic, and the conclusion was the disappearance of the middle class with no hope.
Is that really the case? I don't think so. Then why such a conclusion? Because they are still analyzing with the vision and viewpoint of the previous era. Few people realize that we have actually entered a brand new era. This has led to the magnification of many pessimisms.
I am not so pessimistic personally because:
1 History has proved countless times that when it is the most dangerous and desperate, it often breeds great opportunities. We should not just keep looking at the bad side, but should focus on the opportunities and the sunlight in the cracks to find new opportunities;
2 Crises must breed new opportunities. Whether it is the 1997 financial tsunami or the 2008 financial crisis, when they broke out, it was also a terrifying and dark time. But looking back, there were actually many particularly good opportunities at that time. In fact, 1997 was the year of the Internet, and a large number of Internet companies were established, and many of them became giants.
3 AI, short videos and live broadcasts are not tools, but new things that contain unlimited new opportunities, and should not be ignored.
Some people say that AI is like the Industrial Revolution. I want to say that is still too conservative. The degree to which AI will change the world will definitely be far greater than that of the Industrial Revolution. Looking forward to the future, you will be very excited.
Take Musk as an example. He has been subverting cognition. Tesla is not an electric vehicle company, but a "vehicle robot". His vision is essentially the Internet of Everything: through Tesla, the interconnection between people and vehicles is realized; through the brain-computer interface, the interconnection between the human brain and the machine is realized; through the hyperloop, the interconnection between cities is realized; through the Starship, the interconnection between the earth and the space universe is realized; and through Starlink, the interconnection between people, machines, vehicles, cities, the earth, space and the universe is realized. In terms of energy, Tesla already has a strong energy storage capacity. In terms of AI, Tesla already has the world's largest supercomputing center, "Supercluster". If it can be realized, the world may really be changed.
Looking at how many opportunities the rapid development of AI will bring, how can there be no opportunities?
One, AI, short videos and live broadcasts are not tools, but a brand new era
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1. The AI era is coming, what exactly should we do?
The AI era has arrived. Some people are numb, some are hesitant, some are jubilant, some are pessimistic and disappointed, some feel that there are new opportunities, and some are anxious. They are all eager to learn. AI tutors and AI courses are emerging one after another, but in essence, they are still tool tutorials. This does not solve the problem.
Just like when Watt invented the steam engine during the first Industrial Revolution, machines began to replace manpower, and a large number of farmers became industrial workers. They learned to operate machines, but they may not necessarily get rich or achieve class transition. Then in the new era, who can get rich and rise? The answer is those who are good at learning and diligent in thinking.
The emergence of automobiles has changed the value of suburban land, and those who bought the land in advance got rich as a result. After the Industrial Revolution, factories, production lines and management positions rose, and those who mastered management and statistics became new talents. For another example, oil has become the power source of automobiles, and Middle East countries with oil have become rich as a result. Gas stations have become a long-lasting good business, and every link in the automotive era contains business opportunities.
The arrival of the AI era makes many people anxious and blindly learn to use tools. In fact, the essence of the AI revolution is that machines simulate humans, not that humans adapt to machines. We should learn the new wealth rules and seize the opportunities of the times instead of being eliminated. For example, the computing power demand of AI has driven the chip industry, and those who invested in related stocks earlier have already made profits.
In the next ten years, AI will bring breakthroughs in the fields of biomedicine, technology, and medical care, and the lifespan of ordinary people may be extended to 120 or even 150 years. If you don't care about this, it may be that you don't care about AI or the future.
Let's take a look at this year's Nobel Prize in Chemistry. Like the Physics Prize, it was also awarded to an AI project. It seems that the end of both physics and chemistry is AI.
In 2024, the Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to David Baker in recognition of his contributions in protein calculation and design, which promoted the design and development of artificial proteins. His team used bioinformatics and computational biology to successfully design new proteins and opened up a new direction in life sciences.
The structure of proteins is very complex, composed of amino acids to form a unique three-dimensional structure, which gives proteins their functions. Through AI technology, Baker's team has greatly accelerated the prediction of protein structures. Tasks that used to take several years can now be completed in a few minutes. For example, they successfully predicted 98% of human proteins, and one-third of them are accurate. In the next few months, it will be expanded to 100 million proteins, which is tens of thousands of times faster than traditional experimental methods.
The breakthrough of AI in protein structure prediction means that we can understand the transmission mechanism of virus mutation more quickly and find more effective treatment methods. This achievement is amazing and also makes us think about the future of genetic research. In the past, it was thought that gene sequencing was very complex and might take several generations to solve, but the intervention of AI may bring a major breakthrough in genetic research and even extend human lifespan to 150 years.
If humans can really live to 150 years old, many lifestyles will change, and society will also face huge challenges and opportunities. The rapid development of AI provides us with unlimited possibilities, and there are many fields that China is good at.
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Here I want to share a case, Wang Huainan, the founder of Babytree and also the founder of Michatongshe. He was one of the three carriages of Google, and the Chinese name of Google came from him. When he was working, he reached the ceiling of an employee. When he started a business, he founded a listed company with one shot. In a few years, he made the company the largest mother and baby platform in the world at that time. Now, he grasps the silver economy with one hand and AI with the other, and has been on the road of entrepreneurship.
I still firmly believe in one sentence:
When a person has a firm dream, he will gradually become great.
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Wang Huainan had excellent grades since he was a child. He was admitted to Tsinghua University in the 1980s and later went to Columbia University to study for a master's degree in sociology. There, he and Professor Tang Degang, a historian, went deep into Chinatown to interview Chinese chefs and clerks, record their stories, and show the style of history. After graduation, he entered McKinsey as a strategic consultant, then went to Procter & Gamble to work on Pringles chips, and later joined Yahoo and Google.
He summed up his own work trick: "I always deeply immerse myself in the users' lives." Observing the users' every move, especially the parts that may be combined with the brand products in the changes of user behavior.
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In fact, the principle remains the same. Whether it is to maintain a business or start a new one, deeply observing users is an unchanging principle. We must understand the pain points of users and interpret what they haven't said. Whether it is Eastern management or Western management, whether it is a foreign company or a private enterprise, "Respecting users" is the most crucial first step.
After finishing Babytree, he went home to accompany his father and observed the rigid needs of the elderly. Combining with the trend of China's aging population, he decided to start a business in the silver economy and founded Michatongshe. The team deeply studied the needs of middle-aged and elderly people and found a huge gap in the shoe market. It is difficult to find middle-aged and elderly shoes that are both comfortable and fashionable on the market. So they developed their own brand of shoes, "Xiangwu", which are both beautiful and comfortable and are deeply loved by consumers. I have also worn this pair of shoes myself and I feel very comfortable, and the repurchase rate is very high.
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After ChatGPT came out, Wang Huainan handed "Xiangwu" to his partner Kathleen and quickly started an AI entrepreneurship project. He told me: "I was particularly touched because I knew that the method of oral history would definitely be learned by AI to record the history of each of us instead of us."
He named this project "Ruxi", which is an accompanying AI robot that can chat with you. Just like he used a tape recorder to record the stories of Chinese in Chinatown at Columbia University, it can record those life fragments that you think are insignificant. Wang Huainan hopes to preserve these histories through AI and turn them into digital memories so that they will not disappear with time.
"Ruxi" is an AI robot that can generate high-quality memoirs, growth diaries, and even BBC documentary-like content through conversations. After chatting for a long time, Ruxi can gradually become like you, with the same three views, thoughts and decision-making patterns, and finally become your digital clone to interview or attend meetings for you.
Wang Huainan talked a lot with me in the Starbucks at Hongqiao Railway Station. He said that his mother had passed away for 20 years, and he regretted that not enough materials were left at that time. If there was "Ruxi" at that time, perhaps his mother could leave a digital twin and even achieve digital immortality. Digital immortality is not just imitating the appearance, but being able to convey your values, judgments and sense of life. When encountering difficulties, he can consult his mother's digital twin to get her suggestions.
The mission of "Ruxi" is to record the life story of each person and help you save these precious memories for free. Wang Huainan's dream is to let everyone have a "Digital Sima Qian". His friends have already invested in this, and everyone is optimistic about the future of "Ruxi".
Next, let's talk about why short videos and live broadcasts can be called an era?
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Many people think that short videos and live broadcasts are just a tool. In 2020, four years ago, the theme of my speeches at many summits was "All industries are worth redoing once with short videos and live broadcasts". At that time, I had just entered the field of short videos for half a year, but just half a year had made my everything change dramatically.
A video with a playback volume that has exceeded 200 million at that time. People from all over the world added my WeChat to chat with me, were willing to invite me to dinner, were willing to make friends with me, many people directly sent me red envelopes, and some people called me from the other side of the ocean in the middle of the night, hoping that I could tell them which community my parents lived in, and he also wanted to buy a house for his parents. Some middle school deans hoped that I could offer a course in the middle school and teach it every week. Some people hoped to cooperate with me on products.
Suddenly, I was connected to the world, and suddenly there were many more resources. The people I met and the friends I made during that time were more than 10 times the total number of people I met in the first half of my life.