The fourth quarter comes to an end, and the two major promotion seasons reveal new changes in the sports market pattern.

With the conclusion of the Double Eleven and Double Twelve promotional seasons, as well as the approaching end of the fourth quarter, the 2024 performance of sports brands has basically been determined.

The year 2024, with the successive holding of the European Championship, the Copa America, the Paris Olympics, and other events, can be regarded as a big year for sports. Relevant events have further ignited the enthusiasm of non-professional players for sports such as tennis, skiing, marathon, and outdoor hiking, and simultaneously driven the consumption increase of related categories. Taking this year's Double Eleven as an example, the total online sales of sports goods and clothing categories during the shopping festival were approximately 42 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of about 20%, and the annual growth rate of the sports and outdoor industry reached 18.6%.

However, when looking closely at this field, within the overall upward trend, the performances of different brands, different price ranges, and different categories also vary, and new changes in the market pattern are unfolding.

Recently, the information consulting company Sixth Degree Think Tank has received requests. Many clients hope to interview different experts on the changes in the market pattern of sports brands and consumer habits and preferences to gain a deeper understanding of future trends. Sixth Degree Think Tank is a business information retrieval platform that provides clients with high-quality and leading research decision support and expert knowledge sharing services. Currently, it has achieved more than 50,000 overseas experts, and its business covers North America, Asia, Europe, Southeast Asia, and other regions.

According to the interviews facilitated by Sixth Degree Think Tank, many experts believe that the domestic market competition is fierce, products tend to be homogeneous, the overall demand is limited, and the industry still faces huge challenges. Moreover, the outlook for the online market of sports apparel until next year is not optimistic.

Sports Consumption Becomes a Growth Engine

In this year's consumer market, various sports trends have become the main growth engines. The overall industry data shows that the scale of the Chinese sports shoes and apparel market reached 492.6 billion yuan in 2023, and it is expected to reach nearly 600 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining an annual growth rate of 10% during this period.

At the same time, traditional shoe and apparel brands are increasing their layout in the sports business. For example, the local apparel company Baoxiniao was recently exposed by foreign media to have acquired the business operations of the American high-end outdoor brand Woolrich outside Europe. The French sports brand Lafuma, which it represented earlier, has also made breakthroughs in its performance in the past two years. In the first half of this year, Lafuma contributed a revenue increase of 32% to the group to 152 million yuan, while Baoxiniao's main brand dropped by 3.7% to 770 million yuan.

Another example is that Metersbonwe announced its entry into the outdoor sports track in July this year. Zhou Chengjian, the chairman and president of Metersbonwe Apparel, said that in the future, the company will focus on the trendy outdoor apparel track.

In addition, several major international fashion giants are also exerting efforts in the sports series. In November this year, ZARA released a new 2024 skiwear collection, which is the second year that the brand has positioned in the ski outdoor apparel field; previously, the H&M Group also announced the launch of the 2024 ski series; Uniqlo has reached a long-term cooperation with the Swedish Ski Association to prepare for the 2026 Winter Olympics.

On the one hand, the overall market scale continues to expand. On the other hand, traditional clothing brands have smelled business opportunities and successively launched layouts for sports products. Such signals may have already foretold the kinetic energy and potential of sports consumption in the entire consumer market. In an interview facilitated by Sixth Degree Think Tank, a practitioner who once served as the e-commerce operation manager of a sports brand also said:

"In the current market environment, the sports and health industry presents some significant development trends. Firstly, we can see that specific fields such as running, outdoor activities, and cycling are experiencing obvious growth. At the same time, with the rise of social anxiety, health and wellness products are also receiving more and more attention. It is worth noting that compared to the clothing industry, the sports industry may perform more outstandingly, which is in line with the current people's increasing health awareness."

Taking the performance during the Double Eleven period as an example, this e-commerce operation manager said that the performances of various sports brands this year have their own characteristics: Li-Ning's total merchandise transaction volume across all channels increases by about 15% annually; Anta performs particularly well in various channels, with an annual growth rate of approximately 25%; Nike's ranking on the Tmall platform has significantly improved, rising from the sixth place in 2023 to the 2nd - 3rd place in 2024; International brands such as DESCENTE and Lululemon are developing rapidly, with Lululemon's growth rate at about more than 10 percentage points, while DESCENTE's growth rate is even higher.

In addition, from the perspective of different platforms, the aforementioned e-commerce operation manager revealed that the sales of sports categories on major e-commerce platforms have increased to varying degrees. The total sales of the sports category on Tmall have increased by about 20%, and the growth rate of the entire platform is around 20%. The total sales of the sports category on the Douyin platform have increased more significantly, reaching about 50%. The total sales of the sports category on the JD.com platform have also had a considerable growth, approximately between 40% and 50%.

The "Newcomer" of Outdoor Takes the Lead

In the atmosphere of the rising sports consumption, the performance of outdoor sports products is still eye-catching.

According to the data of the Tmall platform, during this year's Double Eleven, within one hour of the start of sales, the sales of 12 outdoor sports brands exceeded 100 million yuan, including multiple mid-to-high-end brands. On the outdoor brand sales list, The North Face ranked first, and KOLON SPORT, Columbia, KAILAS, CANADA GOOSE, and Arc'teryx all ranked among the top ten in sales, with mid-to-high-end sports brands accounting for almost half. In addition, the sales growth of the "three major cycling items": complete bicycles, cycling apparel, and cycling equipment, all exceeded 100%.

At the same time, the report released by JD.com for the 28 hours after the start of the Double Eleven also shows that the transaction volume of sports shoes, apparel, and equipment increased by more than 5 times year-on-year. Among them, the sales of outdoor sports goods such as windbreakers and pants, cycling equipment, and skiing equipment increased by more than 7 times.

The increase in outdoor sports consumption mainly comes from the guidance of national policies and the change in consumers' health concepts.

In recent years, with the support of national policies, several national-level sports tourism demonstration bases have been completed one after another, creating more professional outdoor sports venues for consumer groups. In October 2024, the Sports Economy Department of the General Administration of Sports of China released the "China Outdoor Sports Industry Development Report", showing that "Up to now, the General Administration of Sports and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism have jointly recognized 74 national sports tourism demonstration bases and 26 national-level ski tourism resorts. Various provinces and cities have also taken measures to promote the development of the outdoor sports industry according to local conditions."

At the same time, the increase in events such as road running and cross-country running has also stimulated the enthusiasm of the public to try to participate, and simultaneously driven the demand for related equipment from consumers.

In an interview facilitated by Sixth Degree Think Tank for the sports and outdoor category, a former director of a technology company also observed the above trends:

"During the 2024 Double Eleven event, as of November 7, the online sales of outdoor goods overall show an upward trend. The sales growth of products in different price ranges varies, with the growth rate of high-end products being slower, while the growth of low-priced goods is more significant.

This trend reflects that the popularity of the Chinese outdoor market is closely related to the rapid growth of affordable goods, and currently, these goods are mainly targeted at ordinary consumers. It is worth noting that the high-income group was the first to enter the outdoor market, and now, the growth rate of affordable products is more rapid. In general, the outdoor industry does show a growth trend.

These sales trends reflect that the Chinese outdoor market is undergoing a transformation from a high-end niche to a popularization, and also shows that consumers' interest in outdoor activities is increasing."

Profitability Faces Challenges

Under the situation where the overall consumer demand is somewhat suppressed, sports consumption has performed well, but many experts are still not very optimistic about the future prospects of this field.

Although the online shopping platforms and various sports brands have reported good news during the Double Eleven period, the aforementioned sports brand e-commerce operation manager still said in the interview of Sixth Degree Think Tank that these growth data seem not to have reached the expected level in the industry. In fact, after a good performance in the first half of the year, the online sales in the sports industry have declined in the third quarter, and the sales performance in the fourth quarter, including the Double Eleven, has not improved significantly.

He analyzed: "The performance in the third quarter can usually predict the results of the fourth quarter's Double Eleven. If the performance in the third quarter is not ideal, then the results of the fourth quarter are basically foreseeable. In addition, the effect of the promotional activities in September will also have an impact on the sales performance of Double Eleven."

"Specifically, the sales of the sports category in the third quarter decreased year-on-year, and leading brands such as Xtep reported a single-digit percentage decline. The decline of medium-sized enterprises is more significant, about between 10% and 20%. Although the data in the fourth quarter shows an increase, the performance is still inferior compared to the same period last year. These data indicate that the entire sports industry may be facing deeper challenges."

The most intuitive is that the further increase in the return rate and the obvious drag of online sales platform fees on the profit ability of some brands. The aforementioned e-commerce operation manager mentioned that due to the impact of returns, the actual total merchandise transaction volume may be reduced by about 10%. It is worth noting that even without considering the return situation, the sales of medium-sized brands also show a downward trend. What is more worrying is that the return rate in 2024 has exceeded 50%, and the proportion of only refunds and some initial returns has already reached this level.

"It needs to be clarified here that the actual receipt refers to the actual income after deducting refunds. In addition, the fees of the Tmall platform in 2024 have increased by 35 - 40%, which undoubtedly further compresses the profit space of the brand. These factors combined have a significant negative impact on the financial situation of medium-sized brands."

In addition, consumer behavior is also changing. For example, the general manager of the brand business department who once served as the largest distributor of a leading sports brand mentioned in the interview of Sixth Degree Think Tank that when contemporary consumers purchase goods, they not only aim to meet basic needs but also hope to have an emotional resonance.

The aforementioned e-commerce operation manager observed that the current consumer confidence has not fully recovered, especially the middle-income group has been significantly affected. Consumers' purchasing decisions have become more cautious, and they tend to choose a single brand rather than multiple brands for purchase.

Such changes in consumer behavior have posed more challenges for sports brands to adjust their strategies. In the interview of Sixth Degree Think Tank, the aforementioned general manager of the sports brand distributor business department said that in the current economic environment, the sports brand he manages has carried out a series of measures.

"First, they have cut expenses, especially in terms of staff management. Although the marketing budget has been reduced, they still hope to drive sales growth through precise promotion strategies. However, the brand has some problems in marketing promotion and needs to learn from the experience of other successful enterprises to improve efficiency and reduce expenses."

"However, the brand's marketing promotion activities, including Olympic-related marketing and other brand exposure activities, have failed to successfully attract widespread attention or produce significant visual effects. The senior management pays more attention to enhancing the brand's popularity rather than the immediate performance. But in the case of a decline in consumption levels, it is difficult to attract consumers to make purchases without continuous hot events. This is the main challenge that the brand is currently facing."

Looking beyond the perspective of a single brand, the aforementioned e-commerce operation manager said that he is not optimistic about the outlook of the online sports apparel market in 2025.

"It is expected that the situation next year may further deteriorate. In this year's Double Eleven event, the performances of different categories such as running, basketball, and sports leisure vary. The growth rate of indoor sports projects such as yoga and fitness may have slowed down compared to previous years. It is worth noting that more and more people tend to choose outdoor sports projects such as running, cycling, and urban hiking, and the performances of these activities are relatively better. This trend reflects that consumers' preference for outdoor activities is increasing." He said in the interview of Sixth Degree Think Tank.

Based on the opinions of experts, the following conclusions can be drawn:

There is a seesaw relationship between the sales of online and offline stores, and the overall demand is limited.

The development prospects of the Chinese outdoor market are optimistic. It is expected that in the next few years, this market will maintain a stable growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of at least 10% or higher, and the outdoor market penetration rate still has about 15% room for improvement, which provides huge potential for future development.

Consumers prefer brands that can provide high-end products and unique brand experiences, and also maintain an interest in local brands with cultural connotations.

In the current environment, enterprises that can effectively convey values and are good at telling brand stories are often more popular. For brands, establishing emotional connections and effectively conveying values are obviously the key to enhancing competitiveness.