Auto Manufacturers' 2025 Sales Forecast: New Forces Nearly Double, BBA Lowers Forecast | Exclusive from 36Kr
Author｜Xu Caiyu
Editor｜Li Qin, Yang Xuan
In 2025, the fierce competition in the Chinese automotive market will continue.
36Kr has learned from industry insiders the initial sales forecast guidelines for several new car-making companies in 2025.
NIO CEO Li Bin once publicly stated that the goal for 2025 is to double the sales volume. 36Kr learned from the industry that NIO's sales forecast for 2025 is in line with this.
In the next year's doubling forecast, the sales forecast of the Ledao brand is about 240,000 units. From January to November this year, the total sales volume of NIO and Ledao is 200,000 units. Under the promotion policy, its estimated annual delivery volume can reach 230,000 units.
XPeng, with a cumulative sales volume of 150,000 units in 2024, is likely to continue the delivery of 30,000 units in December, achieving a total annual volume of 180,000 units. Its initial forecasted sales volume for next year is 350,000 units, with an expected growth of nearly doubling.
Leapmotor aims to achieve an annual sales volume of 500,000 units. Leapmotor Chairman Zhu Jiangming once said that 500,000 is the guaranteed number. If this forecasted sales volume is realized, Leapmotor will achieve a 100% year-on-year growth rate for two consecutive years.
Li Auto has given a sales forecast of about 700,000 units for 2025. In the first 11 months of this year, Li Auto's cumulative sales volume has reached 441,900 units. Stimulated by the interest-free policy, Li Auto is expected to achieve an annual sales volume of 500,000 units. If the 700,000-unit target for next year can be achieved, Li Auto will achieve a 40% growth.
Hongmeng Zhixing has not yet given a clear sales volume guidance to the supply chain. However, next year, it will have more than 10 models on sale. It can be predicted that Hongmeng Zhixing's sales forecast may not be lower than that of Li Auto. At the same time, sources revealed that in Yu Chengdong's internal 2025 plan, he once planned to aim for a million-unit sales volume.
BYD has also not given a clear sales volume guidance, but the market's sales forecast for BYD next year is around 5.5 million units, accounting for nearly one-third of China's new energy vehicle sales, and BYD has always had the strategic goal of "dividing the world into three parts" within the company.
Xiaomi has given an early sales forecast of 360,000 units in the second year of delivery. Compared with this year's delivery target of 130,000 units, Xiaomi will continue to climb to a new brand sales peak.
However, the forecasted sales volume guidance is only a preliminary reference for the new year's automotive companies and supply chain preparations, and the specific implementation will be changed and adjusted according to the actual situation.
The national automotive subsidy and scrap and renewal policy implemented at the end of April this year has stimulated an increase in consumption of about 1.5 million units. From January to October, China's new energy vehicles are in a rapid growth period, with sales reaching 9.77 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33%.
With the policy support and the efforts of enterprises, the sales volume of new car-making companies is rising.
XPeng Automobile has increased its monthly sales from 5,000 units at the beginning of the year to over 30,000 units in November through two new models. Li Auto's sales in October and November reached 100,000 units, exceeding the delivery volume of 80,000 units in the first quarter.
Under the high consumer enthusiasm, the growth rhythm of new car-making companies shows a positive trend. The preparation of new cars and new technologies has made automotive companies more confident about 2025.
The hot sales of new forces are bound to be accompanied by changes in market share. In 2024, the sales of luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi in China have shown different degrees of decline.
And 36Kr Automobile learned from industry insiders that in 2025, the initial sales forecasts of Mercedes-Benz and BMW will continue to be reduced by 10 - 15%.
Many automotive industry insiders told 36Kr that in 2025, the replacement subsidy is likely to continue, but considering that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50%, this may also be the last year of the subsidy.
"Automotive companies need to be prepared for this, seize the time window, and accelerate forward." Therefore, for all automotive companies, 2025 is a year full of hope but also with hidden risks.
The new forces remain optimistic, but risks cannot be ignored
In 2025, new car-making forces will continue to usher in a big product year.
XPeng, which has continuously created two popular models, achieved a breakthrough of 30,000 monthly sales in November, and has sold a total of 153,300 units this year. Having figured out the formula for popular models with the MONA M03 and P7+ models, XPeng will follow up with a victory and continue to expand its model lineup next year.
In the first half of the year, XPeng will launch a B-class SUV model based on the same platform as the P7+. In the second half of the year, it will launch a C-class SUV with extended-range power. Among the models on sale, the P7i, G6, and G9 will also undergo facelifts.
Whether it is a new car or a facelift, XPeng's technical core will focus on the integration of AI cockpits and AI intelligent driving, continuing to verify XPeng's formula for popular models: more cost-effective prices and more intelligent and competitive products.
Another car company that creates popular models, Xiaomi, will also continue to select popular products next year. Its high-performance model SU7 Ultra, with a price of up to 814,900 yuan, will start delivery in the first quarter; According to Auto Finance & Economics, Xiaomi's first pure electric SUV model will also be launched in the first quarter of next year.
With two main models to pursue an annual sales target of 360,000 units, that means Xiaomi needs to achieve an average monthly delivery of 30,000 units. Since the launch of the SU7 in March, consumers' enthusiasm for Xiaomi Automobile has continued unabated. By November, its weekly new order volume can still reach more than 5,000 units.
Compared with orders, Xiaomi faces more pressure from delivery. 36Kr previously reported that after the production line adjustment of Xiaomi Automobile's first-phase factory, the production capacity is about to be fully utilized; The second-phase factory will be completed in June next year. Production and delivery will be the top challenges for Xiaomi Automobile in 2025.
Compared with Xiaomi Automobile, which has had a smooth start, NIO is undoubtedly more urgent about increasing sales. The company is still trapped in losses due to huge investments and urgently needs a significant increase in sales to get out of the predicament.
Li Bin once said that NIO will double its sales volume in 2025 and achieve profitability in 2026.
Based on the data from the first 11 months of this year, NIO's two brands are expected to achieve a sales volume of 230,000 units this year. In order to achieve the doubling target for next year, NIO needs more and stronger products - the NIO brand will launch the flagship model ET9 based on the 3.0 platform.
The Ledao brand will launch two new models next year, respectively targeting the 6/7-seat mid-to-large SUV of Li Auto L8 and the large five-seat SUV of Li Auto L7. Li Bin's goal for Ledao Automobile is to achieve a monthly delivery of 20,000 units in March next year.
In addition, NIO's third brand, "Firefly", will also start delivery in the first half of next year, with a target of about 5,000 monthly sales.
The ET9, which was released at the end of this year, includes technologies such as the 900V high-voltage architecture, the first application of the self-developed intelligent driving chip, and the newly upgraded intelligent chassis system. These are the confidence sources for NIO's forecast for next year. NIO will drive the sales growth of the three brands through different degrees of technology transfer.
However, technology and sales volume are not directly related. NIO needs to face the challenges of quickly breaking through with new technologies and new brands, and also needs to balance the development of multiple brands to avoid mutual competition among its products.
Hongmeng Zhixing, which also adopts a multi-brand strategy, plans to continue creating popular products in 2025.
36Kr previously reported that Hongmeng Zhixing will have more than 10 models on sale next year, including the Wenjie M9, which competes with Li Auto L9, the Enjoy S9 with extended-range version, and the Zunjie S800 with a positioning of millions of yuan and the second model.
Among them, many industry insiders told 36Kr that the Wenjie M8 is one of the core important products of Hongmeng Zhixing in 2025, and Huawei has devoted a lot of effort to the Wenjie M8, and its sales target is expected to be very high.
Li Auto, which competes head-on with the Wenjie brand under Hongmeng Zhixing, has a sales forecast of 700,000 units for 2025, and this number is not simple.
From January to November 2024, Li Auto has sold a cumulative of 441,900 units, of which the pure electric model MEGA only accounts for 8,680 units.
According to Li Auto's plan, its new car plan for 2025 is mainly based on the pure electric series. However, a supply chain insider told 36Kr that the forecasted sales volume of its pure electric series is not high, and the extended-range is the sales pillar.
36Kr learned that Li Auto will launch at least two pure electric models next year, and the extended-range L series may also have facelift actions. However, as the number of new extended-range models in the market increases next year, the track is gradually becoming crowded, and Li Auto will also face new tests.
In terms of product competitiveness, as the first automotive company to fully launch the "parking space to parking space" full-scenario pilot-assisted driving function, the intelligent driving experience will become the core capability of Li Auto. In addition, Li Auto is also accumulating more intelligent chassis capabilities, trying to polish a stronger competitiveness.
Judging from these sales forecasts, the market expectations of new car-making forces for next year are quite optimistic. However, the competition in the Chinese automotive market in 2025 will intensify.
This year, the Chinese automotive market has entered a plateau period. From January to October, China's new energy vehicles are in a rapid growth period, with sales reaching 9.77 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, but the total sales volume of passenger vehicles has only achieved a year-on-year growth of 1.5%.
Under the subsidy policy, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is continuously increasing, but the total sales growth rate of passenger vehicles has slowed down.
Moreover, after this year's stimulus policy, there is usually a one-year buffer period to reduce the sales impact caused by the policy withdrawal. Next year, the subsidy policy intensity will face a decline, and the single-vehicle subsidy may be halved, and the consumer enthusiasm in the automotive market will enter a cooling-off period.
At the same time, the result of the US presidential election has been determined, and the policy direction of the Trump administration will impose more tariffs and industrial restrictions on China, which may increase the uncertainty of the Chinese economy; The result of the high anti-subsidy tariff consultation by the EU against Chinese pure electric vehicles is unknown, which will also have an impact on the global automotive supply chain.
In the case of an unclear policy and international situation, the pressure faced by China's new car-making forces will not suddenly decrease.
Luxury cars enter a cooling-off period, and joint-venture brands accelerate the search for a way out
The luxury market has always been a crucial battlefield in the automotive industry.
Being able to gain a foothold in the luxury field means that automotive companies can master the technological discourse power and enjoy the high profit margin brought by the brand power, thereby improving the enterprise's profitability.
This field has been firmly controlled by foreign luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi for 30 years. Chinese automotive companies that have been struggling in the cost-effective market have now gradually entered this high-price and high-profit competitive forbidden area.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the sales of Mercedes-Benz and Audi in China decreased by more than 10% year-on-year. Second-tier luxury brands such as Cadillac, Lexus, and Volvo also showed different degrees of decline.
This year, in the sales ranking of vehicles priced above 500,000 yuan, the Wenjie M9, with a starting price of 469,800 yuan, has entered the market and ranked first with a sales volume of 124,700 units.
This is undoubtedly a huge impact on foreign luxury brands - in the luxury market, brand power is no longer a guarantee of sales volume, and luxury car users also have a demand for new technologies.
However, the transformation of foreign luxury brands is already underway.
In 2025, Audi's mainstream models Q5L and A5L will be equipped with the full-scenario intelligent driving capability jointly developed with Huawei.
Mercedes-Benz will launch its latest in-car system and the full-scenario intelligent driving function jointly developed with a Chinese autonomous driving enterprise on the new product CLA.
By 2026, BBA will usher in its big product year:
BMW's new generation series for the future will be put into production at the Shenyang factory in 2026. This series of models adopts BMW's new exterior design language and cockpit system.
Mercedes-Benz will also usher in a big product year. The pure electric C-Class, GLC, and E-Class based on the new pure electric platform will be launched in 2026. Its mid-to-large SUV GLE will also be localized in China in 2026.
Although the transformation works of luxury brands after reflecting on their pain are lagging behind Chinese independent brands, the BBA, with its deep vehicle technology and brand accumulation, is still worthy of caution.
Moreover, in the third quarter of 2024, Mercedes-Benz's free cash flow was 2.39 billion euros (about 18 billion yuan), and its net liquid funds were as high as 28.73 billion euros (about 220 billion yuan). Foreign luxury brands with a rich foundation have a strong risk-resistance ability that cannot be underestimated.
In 2025, whether it is independent automotive companies or joint-venture automotive companies, the market competition they face will further intensify. Automakers will face a new round of product and technology battles, and the price war will further be transmitted to the supply chain. "Internal competition" will continue to be the main theme in 2025.