Next year of Xiaopeng Motors is more anticipated than this year | Focus Analysis

Written by Han Yongchang

Edited by Zhang Bowen

The industry is highly competitive, but Xiaopeng has presented the strongest financial report since its listing.

In the third quarter of this year, Xiaopeng Motors delivered 46,533 new vehicles, with a revenue of 10.1 billion yuan. The gross profit margin even reached a new quarterly historical high of 15.3%.

As of September 30, 2024, Xiaopeng still had 35.75 billion yuan in its account, and only spent 1.58 billion yuan in the third quarter. Calculated at this rate, this money is enough for Xiaopeng to spend for at least 5 years. He Xiaopeng is more confident at the financial report communication meeting, "It is expected that the cash on hand will return to the level of 40 billion yuan in the fourth quarter."

Since the setback of the G9, Xiaopeng Motors has been in a dormant state for two years. Whether it is the G6 trying to turn the tide, or the short-lived appearances of the X9 and P7i, none of them have been able to bring Xiaopeng Motors back to the upward trajectory.

In the past two years, the argument that "Xiaopeng Motors is falling behind" has been continuously spreading in the industry. Until the emergence of MONA M03.

Although Xiaopeng Motors did not announce the exact number, some media reported in October that the number of orders for MONA M03 had exceeded 80,000. Now, one month later, there are speculations in the industry that the number of orders is approaching 100,000.

The subsequent P7+ also exceeded expectations, with orders exceeding 30,000 in less than 2 hours of pre-sale. The continuous explosion of orders for both models has made Xiaopeng Motors' supply chain "both painful and happy."

He Xiaopeng's current worry is no longer selling cars, but how to produce the cars in the factory and deliver them to the prospective car owners.

He also expressed his true feelings in the internal executive group: "It is very not easy to come out of the adverse period, but we are far from reaching the blue ocean. In the next few quarters, we will continue to maintain the past efforts, changes, and humility, and move forward steadily. I believe that the next big step will come at some point in 2025."

After several ups and downs, it is only a matter of time for Xiaopeng Motors to return to the first echelon.

「 Ample Cash Flow 」

In the third quarter of this year, Xiaopeng Motors' automotive sales revenue was 8.8 billion yuan, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year and a 29.0% increase quarter-on-quarter. The automotive gross profit margin also reached 8.6%. In contrast, it was -6.1% in the same period last year and 6.4% in the second quarter of this year.

The increase in revenue and the continuous improvement of the gross profit margin have narrowed Xiaopeng's losses. The net loss in the third quarter was only 1.81 billion yuan. It should be noted that the company's net loss was 3.89 billion yuan at this time last year. However, compared with the 1.28 billion yuan in the second quarter, the loss is still expanding.

This may be related to the sales cost. The financial report shows that in the third quarter, the company's sales cost was 8.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of only 2.3%, but a 22.7% increase quarter-on-quarter. Under the price war, the product prices of Xiaopeng are continuously decreasing. The more it sells, the more difficult it is to reduce the cost, and the more difficult it is to increase the profit.

Of course, He Xiaopeng called P7+ as "a new starting point for improving the gross profit" at the performance communication meeting, which also means that the situation may improve after the delivery of P7+.

In terms of research and development, Xiaopeng invested 1.63 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 25.1% year-on-year. The proportion of research and development in revenue is 16.1%.

Of course, even if the cost cannot be reduced and the company is still losing money, Xiaopeng also has the confidence to lose money. As of September 30, 2024, Xiaopeng has 35.75 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents.

With money in the account, there is no fear of spending. Moreover, Xiaopeng's cash flow in the second quarter was 37.33 billion yuan. One quarter has passed, and only 1.58 billion yuan has been spent. Calculated at this rate, this money is enough for Xiaopeng to spend for at least 5 years.

He Xiaopeng is more confident at the financial report communication meeting, "It is expected that the cash on hand will return to the level of 40 billion yuan in the fourth quarter."

In addition to having money, Xiaopeng also has more orders.

The explosion of orders for the MONA M03, which starts at 119,800 yuan, is not unexpected. Before the listing of M03, He Xiaopeng revealed in the speech at the company's tenth-anniversary all-staff meeting that the number of MONA orders exceeded that of the G6 in the same period. They have already prepared to stabilize the supply chain in advance, and the production is ready to strive for immediate delivery upon listing.

The continuous delivery of more than 10,000 units for two consecutive months after the listing also proves that He Xiaopeng has indeed made preparations. But these preparations are still insufficient.

An A-class pure electric sedan has a boom of explosion of orders among many strong competitors, and even the number of orders may approach 100,000. This situation only occurred when the Xiaomi SU7 was listed. Xiaopeng is of course caught off guard. As a result, the longest waiting time for prospective MONA M03 car owners is 17 weeks, nearly 4 months, and even the situation of missing the window period of the trade-in policy may occur.

In response to the delivery delay problem of the MONA M03 model, He Xiaopeng also said that the factory will increase the production capacity by 30% to 40% in November and December. The monthly production capacity target before the Spring Festival in 2025 is 20,000 units.

In addition, the P7+, which has 30,000 orders on hand, has also begun to be delivered. Xiaopeng's pressure is no longer on the sales end, but on the supply chain. He Xiaopeng said at the financial report communication meeting, "At present, both M03 and P7+ have started double-shift production."

From January to October this year, Xiaopeng Motors has delivered 122,478 new vehicles, and 23,917 units were delivered in a single month in October. From then on, every month, Xiaopeng only needs to stabilize the supply chain, and the delivery volume will continue to increase steadily. A monthly sales of 30,000 is within reach.

In the financial report, Xiaopeng Motors is also full of expectations for the fourth quarter. It is expected that 87,000 to 91,000 new vehicles will be delivered in the fourth quarter, and the revenue can reach 15.3 to 16.2 billion yuan.

However, the fourth quarter is not Xiaopeng's peak moment.

「 Two More Cards, Volkswagen and Extended Range 」

What Xiaopeng needs to do in the fourth quarter is to steadily deliver the orders on hand, and in 2025, Xiaopeng has two trump cards, which is also the reliance for it to step on the "next big step".

The first trump card is Volkswagen.

In July this year, hundreds of Volkswagen employees entered Xiaopeng to "receive interviews and training" based on the previous CEA cooperation project on the electronic and electrical architecture between the two sides. 36Kr previously reported that at that time, the body-in-white of a model of the two sides' cooperation had been offline.

According to the industry rhythm, it often takes one year from the body-in-white to large-scale mass production. This also means that if the progress is smooth, the cooperative model of Volkswagen and Xiaopeng is likely to be launched in 2025, one year earlier than the original plan.

36Kr also learned earlier that the cooperation between Xiaopeng and Volkswagen is not limited to the Chinese market. The two sides will jump out of the vehicle platform CMP for the Chinese market and extend to Volkswagen's global electric vehicle platform MEB.

This also means that Xiaopeng may obtain more model cooperations with Volkswagen, which provides more guarantees for future income.

Looking back at the third quarter of this year, Xiaopeng Motors' service and other income was 1.31 billion yuan, an increase of 90.7% year-on-year. The explanation given in the financial report is: It is mainly due to the increase in income from technical research and development services in cooperation with the Volkswagen Group.

The profit of technical research and development services is indeed considerable, with a profit margin of 60.1%. This is also the key income that drives the overall gross profit margin of Xiaopeng Motors to rise to 15.3%.

If the explosion of orders for MONA and P7+ is the obvious business growth point for Xiaopeng, then the cooperation with Volkswagen is the "foundation" for its continuous increase in profits and the continuous improvement of the gross profit margin.

Xiaopeng's second trump card is the extended range.

On November 6, at the Xiaopeng AI Technology Day, He Xiaopeng officially announced the Xiaopeng Kunpeng Super Electric System. Among them, "Kun" represents the super extended-range system, which adopts the next-generation extended-range technology, and "Peng" represents Xiaopeng Motors' pure electric system.

In simple terms, Xiaopeng Motors is going to make an extended-range vehicle with a super large battery. According to the introduction, the Kunpeng Super Electric System can achieve a smooth switch between pure electric and extended-range, with a pure electric cruising range of up to 430 km, a comprehensive cruising range of more than 1,400 km, and a charging rate of up to 5C.

According to 36Kr's understanding, Xiaopeng Motors discussed the issue of power forms at the end of 2022, but at that time, it was not determined to develop an extended-range model. Now, plug-in hybrids and extended-range have become new market growth points, and Xiaopeng is also following the trend.