The Vision Pro, which costs 29,999 yuan per unit, is indeed going to be discontinued. | Focus Analysis

Author: Qiu Xiaofen

Editor: Su Jianxun

On October 24, The Information, citing multiple supply chain sources, claims that Apple's spatial computing device Vision Pro is slated to halt assembly as early as November of this year, and subsequent production will cease.

As a significant product betting on the next-generation interaction method and a crucial milestone in Cook's career, Apple holds high hopes for Vision Pro. The news of "production reduction and cessation" has also sparked industry discussions -

An Apple ecosystem developer told 36Kr, "Although I was aware of it a few months ago, I still feel somewhat sorrowful upon seeing this information." Some entrepreneurs also expressed concerns that this move by Apple might impact investors' confidence in spatial computing.

However, several senior XR industry insiders believe that this news is misleading, as it can easily lead to the erroneous understanding that "Apple will no longer develop spatial computing devices in the future", causing panic.

After multiple verifications by 36Kr, It is a fact that Vision Pro will reduce and stop production by the end of 2024. However, this move is within Apple's expectations and is also a normal action for the domestic supply chain.

After the production of the first-generation product stops, Apple's exploration in spatial computing devices will gradually continue in the direction of lightweight and price reduction.

Vision Pro "Production Cessation" is Not Surprising

According to the information previously disclosed by Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingyi, Apple's shipment forecast for Vision Pro has been lowered from the initial 700,000 - 800,000 units to the later 400,000 - 450,000 units;

And 36Kr learned from the supply chain that since its launch in January this year, Apple Vision Pro's sales volume is approximately 400,000 units as of now, and it is expected not to exceed 500,000 units within this year - Combining these two sets of data, it can be indicated that Although Vision Pro is not as popular as initially envisioned, its sales volume basically meets Apple's material preparation expectations in the supply chain.

Vision Pro Official Source

Making adjustments at the end of the year is also a normal practice in the domestic consumer electronics supply chain.

36Kr learned that domestic consumer electronics supply chain factories generally choose to "wrap up" the annual production in the fourth quarter of each year and make material preparation forecasts for next year's demand.

"Vision Pro is in the 'inventory clearance' stage at the end of the year", an industry insider analyzed to 36Kr, "According to Apple's previous sales forecast data, the material preparation for the supply chain is just sufficient. Therefore, it is very normal to sell this version and end production this year."

This adjustment was actually anticipated by Apple early on.

An XR industry chain insider said that as early as April 2024, Apple has stopped ordering more Vision Pro components from the supply chain - That is to say, within less than three months of this product being on sale, Apple fully realized the problem of insufficient product demand.

However, whether looking at the design concept of Apple Vision Pro or the product strategies of past products, this is not a product that can achieve high sales volume. It can be said that Apple never intended to rely on Vision Pro for high sales volume.

From the product perspective, the most "showy" interaction of Vision Pro has a certain threshold for practical use, making it difficult for novice users to quickly get started. The product is also not lightweight enough and the price is too high. People close to Apple said that Apple is also very clear internally - Vision Pro is "too expensive and too heavy to achieve high sales volume".

From Apple's past product strategies, we can also see Apple's rhythm control: The core goal of the first-generation product of Apple's new product line is often to present the product design concept, explore and test the waters for the next generation, and the subsequent generations will truly sell well.

When Apple does not rely on the first generation of spatial computing devices to popularize the technology, it is only natural for Vision Pro to reduce and stop production in a timely manner after clearing the inventory at the end of this year.

Preparing for the "SE Version" Vision Pro

It is a fact that Vision Pro is not selling well, but Apple's spatial computing layout does not stop there.

The aforementioned person close to Apple said that Apple currently invests its R & D resources in the next-generation product of Vision Pro. In the new project team, "many people have transferred from the Vision Pro project team".

From the choice of the leader, it can also be seen that Apple will not give up the exploration of spatial computing. According to a previous report by Bloomberg, Dan Riccio, the current director in charge of the Apple Vision Pro project, is about to retire, and the person taking over the banner is Apple's hardware head John Ternus.

This 49-year-old engineer who has worked at Apple for more than 20 years is considered by the outside world as "the most likely candidate to succeed Cook as Apple's CEO."

John Ternus Picture from Public Sources

36Kr learned from people close to Apple that Apple's next new product is likely to make new adjustments in terms of weight, pricing, and interaction, similar to the idea of the "SE" series of Apple phones.  

Specifically, The next-generation product may control the weight to within 300 grams, reducing the weight by half compared to Vision Pro, and control the price to within 10,000 yuan, which is 1/3 of Vision Pro, and is considered to be released in 2025.

In addition, EyeSight and eye movement mode will also be adjusted accordingly.

Previously, to support these two functions, the overall screen design of Vision Pro was not only too thick, taking up costs, but also filtered out most users who wear glasses. Moreover, when the eye movement function is actually used, problems such as accidental touches and eye fatigue easily occur, and a considerable number of users choose to turn off this function.

The aforementioned person analyzed to 36Kr that Apple's next-generation product may remove EyeSight and eye movement, and consider using a screen automatic adsorption and head aiming (that is, the aiming point is in the middle of the screen, and the aiming point moves with the head when the head moves) method.

However, some developers are concerned that if the interaction changes, it may affect subsequent development, but they believe that "we need to wait for the actual product to come out to know (how to deal with it)."

EyeSight Function Official Source

In fact, the practice of first launching a more expensive and advanced product to verify the concept, and then launching a "reduced configuration and price" version to boost sales is not uncommon in the XR industry.

Not long ago, after the Quest 3, Meta launched the Quest 3S with a price of only $300 (the former has a starting price of $500) - The suffix "S" implies the meaning of "beginning" to popularize.

Although it has been on sale for less than a month and there is no accumulated sales data yet, according to Meta's official information, the Quest 3S has become the best-selling device in the Amazon US video game category, which is a good start.

From Apple's perspective, using the product concept of the "SE version" for the second-generation product is a cost-effective choice. This means that the R & D experience accumulated by Apple Vision Pro in the past can be reused, and the excess materials in the supply chain can also be consumed by the next generation.

And Apple also has high expectations for the next-generation product to become popular. Some supply chain insiders said that the expected volume is at least more than twice the shipment volume of Vision Pro this year (about one million units).

After a difficult market exploration and product concept verification in the past year, 2025 is a crucial year to test whether Apple's spatial computing devices can truly become popular.

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