The future of Musk is not so promising.

One hour late for the event, a half-hour press conference, an unmanned taxi called CyberCab, an unmanned bus called RoboVan, and a humanoid robot twisting its body wildly along with the music. This is what Musk said is a Tesla press conference that is enough to change history.

CyberCab (Source: Tesla)

The CyberCab has two doors and two seats, without a steering wheel or pedals, only a central control screen. It costs $30,000, with an operating cost of 30 cents per kilometer. It can be managed by a single person for an entire fleet, can be wirelessly charged, and the interior can be cleaned by a robot. Mass production is expected by 2026, or at the latest, before 2027.

CyberCab Interior (Source: Tesla)

The overall shape of the vehicle is like a hybrid of the Model 3 and the Cybertruck, with roundness and edges. The gull-wing doors that rise upwards on both sides seem to be more for showing the technological sense of this vehicle at the press conference than for practical use. After all, the gull-wing doors are contrary to the logical definition of the CyberCab. On the one hand, the manufacturing cost is higher. On the other hand, when the doors open to both sides, more space is required, which is not suitable for a taxi, which is a purely practical vehicle that can go anywhere.

CyberCab Gull-Wing Door Design (Source: Tesla)

In the early years, Tesla used gull-wing doors that lifted upwards and finally unfolded at the rear of the Model X. On the one hand, it was to give the Model X, as a luxury SUV, a very clear design label. On the other hand, the folded gull-wing doors require less space to unfold than the traditional rear doors, which is a win-win in design and functionality.

But the doors of the CyberCab, except for looking "good", probably have no other use.

CyberCab Gull-Wing Door Design (Source: Tesla)

The unmanned taxi with two doors and two seats and a small size does indeed conform to the travel habits in North America. According to data from the Federal Highway Administration of the United States, the average number of passengers in a private car is about 1.5. This means that in most cases, there is only the driver or the driver and one passenger in the vehicle. This low passenger occupancy rate is particularly evident in daily commuting and short trips.

CyberCab Interior Design (Source: Tesla)

Removing the driver, the steering wheel, and the pedals, and only keeping two seats in the vehicle can, on the one hand, retain as much space as possible for luggage in the vehicle. On the other hand, the vehicle can be made as small as possible to save manufacturing costs, as well as space costs for parking, and to facilitate travel in congested cities.

At the press conference, Musk did not disclose more performance and technical parameters of this vehicle. After all, according to Tesla's past habits, except for the Chinese factory that demonstrated the "China Speed" and actually mass-produced the vehicle shown at the press conference, delays in mass production are the norm.

The super sports car Roadster 2, which made its debut at the end of 2017, has not yet been truly mass-produced. Until the earnings conference some time ago, Musk said that Tesla has just completed most of the engineering work of the Roadster 2, and it will be publicly displayed in 2025. And this event may be "the most shocking display ever".

Tesla Roadster 2 (Source: Tesla)

That is to say, according to Tesla's definition, today's press conference, the CyberCab has changed history, and next year, the Roadster 2 can still shock history.

Luckily, the United States does not have as strict advertising laws as China, right?

Musk's vision of the future is quite ingenious.

All Tesla vehicles can be self-driving. Owners can drive them if they want to, or let the car go out to earn money or deliver food if they don't want to drive.

CyberCab Usage Scenario Display (Source: Tesla Press Conference)

All CyberCabs, unmanned vehicles, have low manufacturing costs and low operating costs, and are simple to manage. Once the market share increases, it can not only solve the problem of traffic congestion but also solve some inherent urban problems by optimizing traffic efficiency.

He is indeed a master of the First Principles, with a particularly thorough ideal model. But the problem is that the ideal model is too ideal, and the reality is too skinny.

CyberCab Usage Scenario Display (Source: Tesla Press Conference)

I entered the industry in 2015 and started reporting on automotive technology. The future that Musk talked about today was already discussed by all car companies in 2015 when they crazily believed that fully autonomous driving would be mass-produced and popularized in 2020.

In 2017, Ford demonstrated an ideal future transportation at the North American Auto Show, comparing the future traffic situation to "blood" because blood is an individual that is both collective and independent, and can organically use up the space in the blood vessels; but human transportation does not have such efficiency. The more automated transportation is, the more unified and vibrant the flow is.

Ford's Future Mobility Plan Displayed at the 2017 North American Auto Show (Source: Ford)

So when the entire city becomes unmanned and is all connected through the system; the system can predict and plan the destinations of different vehicles through the networking of the entire vehicle. We no longer need traffic lights, lanes, or speed limits. The entire transportation system will mobilize, accelerate, and overtake; the continuously self-improving system will replace the rigid traffic rules. Why is the autonomous driving system safer? It is not because of some super computer or lidar, but because it is an organic system that can continuously adjust itself.

This is a great dream, but as for what happened later, basically everyone knows.

Waymo Unmanned Test Vehicle (Source: Waymo)

The true popularization of fully autonomous driving is still far away. The new forces have been competing in the field of assisted driving for so many years, but in the end, they are just frantically covering the capabilities of L2-level assisted driving in more scenarios. The CEO of Ford, who vigorously preached the theory of the autonomous driving ecosystem, lost his job not long after. Waymo has indeed successfully operated unmanned taxis, but until now, it is still regarded as a "novelty" for occasional experience and not yet truly practical. The situation of Luobo Kuaipao operated by Baidu in China is not much different.

Nearly 10 years have passed, and the technology has indeed advanced, but the situation remains the same.

Musk and CyberCab (Source: Tesla Press Conference)

Tesla is a company worthy of respect, and Musk is also an entrepreneur worthy of respect. However, Tesla's actions are still too slow. To date, what Tesla has truly changed the world with is the stable delivery of the Model 3 and Model Y, rather than the crazy vision of the future.

Compared to the CyberCab, an autonomous driving vehicle that is supposed to make the world "better" by covering the entire world, the Tesla humanoid robot that can do housework and interact, with a final price of $20,000 to $30,000, is more worthy of anticipation. Although the price of more than 100,000 yuan is not very cost-effective compared to a cleaning lady who charges 50 yuan per hour, it's still good to have one at home as a technological collectible, right?