With the supportive policies, the real estate market has been revitalized to a large extent.
"This National Day holiday (October 1st to 7th), although we made some preparations in advance, the results still exceeded expectations. We nearly doubled our set goal, with the seven-day sales performance surpassing the entire month of September. Compared to last year, it is also nearly half more."
On the evening of October 7th, Li Wei, the chairman of Beijing Heshuo Institution, posted on his Moments, indicating that the real estate market suddenly became hot and far exceeded expectations.
The pleasant surprises of real estate professionals spilled out in their Moments, with one red-background poster after another featuring large numbers, constantly flooding the screen.
Hot-selling poster
In Vanke Donglu located in Tongzhou District, Beijing, 968 people visited during the National Day holiday and 116 units were sold;
In Jingxi Runfu located in the Liangxiang University Town area in Fangshan District, Beijing, 128 units were sold in the 7-day National Day holiday;
Jinghua Guoxianfu sold 113 units in the 7-day National Day holiday, with a cumulative of over 1000 groups of customers visiting;
The Yunjing and Xingguangli projects under China State Construction Dongfu sold 860 million yuan during the Golden Week of the National Day;
During the 7-day National Day holiday, China Resources Land Beijing sold 543 units strongly, totaling approximately 2.5 billion yuan.
An insider from Yuexiu's northern region told 36Kr that in the first 6 days of the holiday, the projects in Beijing, Qingdao, Jinan, Shenyang, and Yantai sold about 150 units. The team already thought the transaction volume was very good. Unexpectedly, the transactions on the 7th set a new high, selling more than 70 units in one day, and ultimately achieving 187% of the set sales target.
"The (reversal) pace is faster than anyone expected!" An industry insider said.
The information about slow sales and price reductions almost disappeared overnight.
"The transaction volume of the Beijing real estate market during the 2024 National Day holiday is the highest in the same period in recent years. The new housing market rose by more than 200%, and the second-hand housing market rose by more than 150%", Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Property, pointed out that the main reason for the rapid warming of the real estate market is the impact of the new policy.
The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26 mentioned that it is necessary to "promote the stabilization of the real estate market". The corresponding policy support is unprecedented. The down payment ratio, loan interest rate, and the identification standards for the first and second houses have entered the loosest stage, and even some restrictions on purchases in first-tier cities have been partially relaxed.
After the new policy was released, 11 new housing projects in Beijing rushed to apply for pre-sale licenses before the National Day holiday, and some real estate enterprise employees urgently canceled their National Day holiday arrangements and worked overtime to prepare for it.
The second-hand housing market also welcomed the highest transaction peak of this year. It is estimated that the actual transaction volume of second-hand housing in Beijing during the National Day holiday is about 5000 units, with an increase of about 150% compared to the same period in 2023 (the actual transaction is less than 2000 units).
"Some homeowners have raised the price, but customers don't buy the (properties with raised prices)", the store manager believes that if the homeowners are really willing to sell the house, now is a chance for a quick transaction. A wave of customers who were previously waiting and observing have concentrated on entering the market, and the probability of entering the negotiation process and making a deal is much higher than in the previous few months, but overall, there is still no driving force for price increases.
The shortening of the transaction cycle of second-hand housing is conducive to the entry of the improved demand market. Coupled with the down payment ratio dropping to the lowest in history and the loan interest rate preferential policy, the replacement threshold and the cost of buying a house have been significantly reduced.
Therefore, the hot transactions in the real estate market during the National Day holiday are mostly concentrated in key first- and second-tier cities. For example, Beijing.
Another example is Shenzhen. During this National Day holiday, a total of 1841 new commercial residential units were subscribed and sold in Shenzhen, with a total area of 191,800 square meters, an increase of 664.14% compared to the same period last year. In the second-hand housing market, the number of viewings and transactions of the leading intermediary agencies reached 24,620 person-times and 1314 units respectively, with an increase of 22% and 339% compared to the daily average during the National Day holiday in 2023.
There is also Hangzhou. According to the data released by Hangzhou Shell Research Institute today, during this National Day holiday, the consultation volume of second-hand housing in Hangzhou Shell compared to the daily average during the National Day last year (last year's National Day was 8 days) increased by 114%, the number of viewings increased by 102%, the number of second-hand housing reservations increased by 170%, and the number of reservations is the highest during the National Day holiday since 2019. In terms of new housing, the consultation volume of Hangzhou Shell decreased by 6% compared to the daily average during the National Day last year, the number of viewings increased by 125%, and the number of subscriptions increased by 399%. The number of subscriptions is also the highest during the National Day holiday since 2019.
There is also the data released by Chongqing. From October 1st to 7th, the online signed transaction area of commercial housing in the central urban area of Chongqing was 159,300 square meters, an increase of 55.7% year-on-year, and the transaction amount was 1.604 billion yuan, an increase of 47.1% year-on-year.
Let's take a look at a set of data statistics from Linping Residence Big Data Research Institute. The ups and downs vary among different cities, and differentiation emerges.
The transaction data of new houses in 14 key cities during the National Day holiday. Source: Linping Residence Big Data Research Institute
Will the heat in the real estate market during this National Day holiday continue?
Yes. Because the expectations of the real estate market have changed. Before, many people just looked but didn't buy, waiting for the bottom to appear. And the super-strong policy support means that the real estate market has approached or reached the bottom, and it is difficult for the continuous falling market in the past year to reappear.
Behind the soaring transaction volume of the real estate market during the National Day holiday, the number of customer consultations and visits has increased significantly, and the conversion rate from house viewing to house purchasing has also increased significantly, indicating that the expectations of people with actual purchasing needs have changed, and the situation of "picking and choosing slowly" has undergone subtle changes.
Gaoyuan from Beijing Lianjia Research Institute said that with the warming expectations, the expectations of homeowners are also more optimistic. During the Golden Week, the number of newly listed properties in Beijing decreased by 16%. Affected by the behaviors of both buyers and sellers, the ratio of customers to properties has increased from 1:10 to more than 1:17, and the market has shifted from a buyer's market to a balanced market.
Will the real estate market reverse and move towards a "bull market"?
It is unlikely to have a major reversal. Because there are still three major fundamental problems in front of us.
The first is the uncertain impact of employment and income;
The second is the problem of low fertility rate, which is difficult to change in the short term;
The third is the problem of the resident leverage ratio. Last year, a more authoritative resident leverage ratio data statistically by some institutions was around 64%, meaning that the risk of a high leverage ratio has not been completely resolved. In the past year, many people have prepaid their mortgages, and the willingness to reduce the leverage ratio is very strong. Without a strong expectation of house price increases, it is difficult to suddenly increase the leverage to the level in the past.
However, there are rumors that the resident leverage ratio in Beijing currently counted by insiders is only 28%, which is quite different from the widely circulated data of 69.3% at the end of 2022. It is unknown which is more accurate. Cities with a actually low leverage ratio still have the opportunity to rise.
The previous golden decade of the real estate market created countless enterprise myths and real estate professionals who achieved financial freedom. Many people still miss it, but the real estate market is not a bull market.
The essential problems of the real estate market are, first, demand, and second, funds. Currently, the real estate market has not yet reached the stage of targeted large-scale liquidity injection. If there is a large-scale liquidity injection in the stock market, there will inevitably be profitable funds entering the real estate market, making the real estate market an indirect beneficiary. Coupled with the favorable expectations brought by policies, it promotes the "stabilization of the real estate market". However, the real estate market and the stock market are not exactly the same. It does not have such strong emotional fluctuations as the latter, and the transaction target requires a large amount of funds. It takes a long warm-up time to start an upward curve, so it is difficult to have the phenomenon of "three positive lines changing beliefs".
To put it simply and straightforwardly, the period of panic over falling prices has passed, and the period of panic over house buying has also passed. It is now the time to buy when it is time to buy and sell when it is time to sell.
This article is from the WeChat public account "Future Habitat". The author is Fang Tao, and 36Kr is authorized to publish it.