In the first 9 months of this year, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing has hit the highest level in nearly five years.

In the two months since the introduction of the new property market policy in Beijing on August 7 this year, new policies have been rolled out continuously at both the national and Beijing municipal levels. Measures including a substantial increase in the provident fund loan quota, the promotion of existing home sales, the extension of mortgage loan terms to 40 years, and mortgage interest subsidies have been implemented one after another.

The property market has also given a positive response. Combined data from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's online signing platform and institutional statistics show that in September, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in Beijing rose by 13.7% month on month, the year-on-year price decline has narrowed for 6 consecutive months, and the transaction volume of second-hand homes in the first 9 months of this year is also the highest in the same period in the past 5 years.

The property market got off to a "good start" in October. During this year's National Day holiday, the online signing of new homes in Beijing reached 1008 units, more than doubling the figure of the same period last year.

01

According to the online signing data from the Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in the just-ended September, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in Beijing reached 15756 units, representing a 13.7% month-on-month increase.

In response, the 5i5j Research Institute analyzed that the transaction volume in September picked up compared with August, which is on one hand driven by the successive implementation of recent property market regulation policies that effectively activated the potential housing purchase demand in the market, and on the other hand conforms to the traditional seasonal transaction characteristics of the property market, as transactions in September of previous years are generally better than those in August.

Moreover, from the perspective of annual cumulative transaction volume, the cumulative online signing volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing from January to September this year is 137,000 units, up 5.1% year on year, hitting a new high for the same period since 2022.

In terms of new homes, the transaction recovery in Beijing in September is even more obvious, the transaction volume of newly built commercial residential properties in Beijing in September reached 4557 units, up more than 50% month on month.

At the price level, the trend of the market stopping falling and stabilizing has emerged. Of course, the prices of second-hand homes and new homes in Beijing shall be subject to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, and today we only look at the transaction statistics from the institution itself.

According to data from the 5i5j Research Institute, the average transaction price of second-hand residential properties of 5i5j in Beijing in September fell slightly by 0.7% month on month. Although the year-on-year figure is still in a downward range, the year-on-year decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared with August.

Moreover, since March this year, the year-on-year decline in the average transaction price of 5i5j's second-hand residential properties in Beijing has narrowed for six consecutive months. Within this year, the monthly average transaction price of 5i5j's second-hand residential properties in Beijing has risen four times month on month; although it has fallen slightly month on month in the past three months, the decline has been controlled within 0.7%, the trend of prices stopping falling and stabilizing has emerged and is expected to continue.

02

September and October used to be called "Golden September and Silver October" by the real estate industry, so what will the property market be like in October?

At present, at least this year's National Day holiday has got off to a "good start", especially for the new home sector. The online signing data from the Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shows that during the 7-day National Day holiday this year, the online signing volume of new homes in Beijing reached 1008 units, while in the same 7 days last year, the online signing of new homes in Beijing was only 367 units. This represents a 174% year-on-year increase, which is partly related to the fact that recent new property market policies have brought more benefits to new homes.

In terms of second-hand homes, there is barely any online signing for second-hand homes during the National Day holiday, so the data does not have much reference significance. Data from the 5i5j Research Institute shows that during this year's 7-day National Day holiday, the average daily transaction volume of 5i5j's second-hand residential properties in Beijing increased by more than 10 units compared with the National Day holiday last year, and the total transaction volume in the 7 days of this year's National Day is higher than that of the same period last year.

In terms of price, during the 7-day National Day holiday this year, the average transaction price of 5i5j's second-hand residential properties in Beijing also achieved a year-on-year increase, rising slightly by 0.3% compared with the average price of the whole month of October last year.

For the market performance of Beijing's second-hand home market in October, the 5i5j Research Institute believes that affected by seasonal patterns and the National Day holiday, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing in October is expected to decline compared with September. The online signing volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing in October last year was 12,100 units, and the transaction volume in October this year is most likely to be close to this level.

In terms of price, with the stabilization of transaction volume, the transaction price of second-hand residential properties in Beijing in October is expected to rise slightly month on month, and the year-on-year decline may continue to narrow.

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "Jingfangzi", author: Jingfangzi, published with authorization from 36Kr.