In the commercial space industry, you can't even get due diligence materials without pulling strings.

At noon on December 3rd, the Zhuque-3 Y1 rocket was ignited and took off on time at the Jiuquan Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Experimental Area. Immediately afterwards, the milky-white rocket body with a diameter of 4.5 meters quickly soared into the sky under the sunlight and the cold Gobi wind. Although the first-stage recovery verification was unsuccessful, the enthusiasm for commercial space in the capital market was not dampened.

Since December 5th, the commercial space sector on Flush has hit a record high, and the trading volume has also been continuously expanding, exceeding one trillion in a week. From the release of the Zhuque-3 to December 15th, the commercial space index rose from 1,899.50 points to 2,111.59 points. Most of the 350 constituent stocks saw an increase, and nearly a hundred companies had a gain of over 50%.

Unsurprisingly, apart from AI, commercial space is becoming another money - attracting track in the A - share market.

The same enthusiasm is also seen overseas. Recently, it was reported that SpaceX, whose valuation has been continuously refreshed, plans to go public with a valuation of $1.5 trillion. Almost at the same time, OpenAI plans to move its computing power center to space, and Musk's plan to build a "Dyson Sphere" in space has also surfaced.

With the synchronization of the Chinese and US markets and the resonance of the primary and secondary markets, we talked to several investors in the commercial space track. Although they have different backgrounds and entry times, they all gave me the same answer: commercial space is really hot this time.

Commercial Space Has Become a Must - Choose Option

The new GPU upstarts in the capital market, Moore Threads and Muxi, are influencing the entire market with great momentum. Smart capital always acts quickly: what will be the next GPU track? Soon, a new answer has emerged - commercial space.

In 2014, a document from the State Council clearly encouraged personnel within the system to participate in and support private enterprises to enter the space field. Thus, the door to China's commercial space was officially opened. This policy directly gave birth to the first batch of domestic commercial space start - ups. Correspondingly, a group of early - stage institutions, mainly Zhongke Chuangxing and Shenzhen Capital Group, also began to test the waters and make layouts in this field.

However, the first investment boom in the domestic commercial space industry did not arrive until two or three years later. At that time, the judgment of the domestic capital market largely referred to the development path of the cutting - edge industries in the United States. Meanwhile, SpaceX under Musk had made great progress, and Starlink began to form a systematic and large - scale network. So, leading US dollar funds began to enter the market for layout. Their investment logic had two points: one was to anchor on the success of SpaceX and believe that its model had the potential to be replicated in China's private space industry; the other was that they had a higher risk appetite and were willing to bear the uncertainties in the early stage of the industry.

This wave of enthusiasm did not last long. More companies were still in the technical verification stage, and the commercialization progress was slow. There was even no consensus on the authenticity of the demand for commercial space. Due to various factors, the industry began to enter a trough in 2019. Leading projects had difficulties in financing, and mid - tier projects withdrew from the stage. In the past two years, with the mainstream RMB funds starting to exert their strength, the enthusiasm for commercial space has risen again.

When talking about this wave of enthusiasm this year, investors generally felt that at least in August or September, the commercial space industry was still in a low - key state. In November, the market suddenly "heated up".

The most direct reason is the policy support and the entry of local funds.

At the end of November, the National Space Administration released the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025 - 2027)", which not only proposed to establish a Commercial Space Department but also announced for the first time the establishment of the "National Commercial Space Development Fund". It encouraged central and local governments, financial institutions, and social capital to jointly build investment platforms to support key links such as satellite and rocket research and development, integration of communication, navigation, and remote sensing, and in - orbit services in a market - oriented way.

Even earlier, Beijing established a 10 - billion - yuan commercial space and low - altitude economy industry investment fund, and the Yangtze River Delta also launched a group of commercial space industry funds with a scale of hundreds of billions. At the same time, cities such as Shanghai and Wuxi have also been making frequent efforts.

Coupled with the further clarification of the 14th Five - Year Plan and the proposal of the strategy of building a space - power, "no one can ignore the commercial space track anymore".

In this regard, investor Lin Ran told me that the biggest difference from before is that commercial space has become a must - invest option for various institutions and cannot be bypassed.

Around 2018, Lin Ran was one of the first batch of domestic commercial space investors and was deeply involved in the investment of leading star projects. Later, due to the lack of a clear commercial closed - loop, he chose to withdraw from the track. In October this year, seeing a definite opportunity again, he chose to re - enter the game. During the communication, he gave me an objective and clear figure: exponentially. The number of institutions paying attention to the commercial space track is increasing exponentially.

Zhang Chi, the chairman and CEO of Xinding Capital, also mentioned that more and more investors are starting to turn their attention to this track. However, like the threshold for starting a business, the investment threshold for commercial space is also relatively high and requires long - term accumulation. He further pointed out that the enthusiasm for commercial space has just begun and will last for a long time. Especially when SpaceX goes public next year, it will surely push the enthusiasm to a new peak.

Certainty

Under the surface phenomenon, the deeper reason for institutions to chase commercial space is certainty, and the word "certainty" was mentioned the most in this communication.

The certainty here mainly has three layers of meaning. The first and most important one is the certainty of the exit channel.

In June this year, Wu Qing, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, launched the "1 + 6" reform plan for the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which clearly mentioned that commercial space, low - altitude economy, and artificial intelligence can use Standard Five for listing. These actions laid the groundwork for the recent enthusiasm.

Subsequently, leading enterprises such as Landspace, Tianbing Technology, and CAS Space have all started the listing guidance process and are expected to submit IPO applications or enter the inquiry stage before the first half of next year. Undoubtedly, from the perspective of capital exit, the current situation may be the most certain opportunity in the past decade. Although it is not completely confirmed, the relevant "opening" policies in the capital market are very clear.

Throughout the capital market, especially those who pay attention to the fifth listing standard or the future trends of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, are aware of this opportunity window. For enterprises that may have had difficulties in passing the review before but meet the new orientation, the exit path has become relatively clear.

Lin Ran predicted that in the future, companies in the commercial space field may account for a considerable proportion of the listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, just like the semiconductor industry in previous years.

The second aspect is the certainty of demand and commercialization.

Currently, SpaceX already has more than ten thousand satellites, and China is bound to start catching up quickly and increasing the quantity. According to the plan, the Satellite Internet Group of China will need a large number of satellites before 2032, and the annual production capacity must be rapidly increased to reach a scale of 100, 200, or even 300 satellites per year. Among them, the period from 2025 to 2028 will be a stage of crazy capacity expansion. At present, the production capacity of each company, especially the rocket carrying capacity, absolutely cannot meet the demand.

It is understood that industrial bases such as Yizhuang and Wuxi are actively expanding, and relevant construction projects are all closely related to capacity improvement. As the certainty of orders gradually becomes clear, for example, the procurement plan of the Satellite Internet Group of China next year, including the number of satellites and the configuration of each satellite (such as the number of lasers), has been basically determined. This further forces out the definite enterprise demand and commercialization path.

More importantly, the certainty of orders in the commercial space industry is even stronger than that in some semiconductor fields (such as GPUs). For example, the products of Moore Threads aim to replace NVIDIA, but there is uncertainty about how much support and actual replacement there will be in China. In the satellite field, it is a complete "must - use" situation, and the demand figures are clearly there. A total of tens of thousands of satellites need to be launched, and there may be only about six rocket companies available, including the Long March series.

Another reference is SpaceX, which started to make a profit this year. This made domestic investors realize that this is not a pure money - burning track and can form a commercial closed - loop.

The third certainty comes from the fact that in the space field of great - power competition, the "national venture capital" model is essential, and the strategic synchronization between the two sides is very high. Therefore, almost everyone is paying attention to this field.

That is to say, every investment now is a technological reserve for the country's major strategy in the future. Strategically, regardless of the future relationship between China and the United States, commercial space and AI will have a place or even a dominant position in the future.

At the same time, following the existing paths of industries such as new energy and chips, that is, whatever the United States has, China will definitely have. Just as the United States has Tesla, China has XPeng, NIO, and Li Auto; the United States has NVIDIA, and China will have Cambricon and Moore Threads.

According to the latest progress, the layout of China and the United States in commercial space has extended from simple low - orbit communication to the space computing power center, and the space computing power center is more directly related to AI. To some extent, this has increased the importance of developing the domestic commercial space industry.

"The Investment Window Has Closed"

With capital and certainty in place, just when institutions were eager to bet on the next XPeng, NIO, Li Auto, or Moore Threads, the primary market is sending them a cold and cruel fact: the investment window for these certain opportunities has closed.

As mentioned above, the commercial space industry that developed after 2014 has experienced several ups and downs in just a few years. Although it is a capital - intensive field with slow commercialization progress, after iteration and elimination, a relatively stable market pattern has been formed, especially for the satellite and rocket enterprises that are most often concerned.

Lin Ran said that under such certainty, if a company successfully secures a position in a key link and is well - received by customers and peers - for example, mainstream rocket companies clearly know which company's products are used for on - satellite supporting - then it will be more popular.

The stronger the consensus, the more concentrated the market attention, and the smaller the investment window.

More than one investor said that these leading companies have clearly stated that they will not open up financing in the market before the IPO. Moreover, even mid - tier companies firmly hold the initiative in financing. When to open up financing and which investors to choose are completely up to the sellers.

It should be noted that during the trough period of the commercial space industry around 2021, even star companies could not get full - amount financing.

What about buying old shares? After all, the old shares of Moore and Muxi were once very popular in the market.

In Zhang Chi's view, the old shares of Moore and Muxi were popular because there were still some disputes and uncertainties in this track before the listing. But this situation does not exist in the commercial space track. Moreover, with the experience of Moore and Muxi, existing shareholders generally cherish their shares because they all understand this time window.

Lin Ran also admitted that for companies with a valuation of 20 billion yuan that may exceed 100 billion yuan after listing, shareholders have no reason to sell in advance, especially state - owned shareholders. Premature withdrawal may lead to accountability.

In addition to these large - scale companies about to go public, in the past two months, the projects upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have also seen their valuations soar.

According to Lin Ran, a leading laser communication project had a valuation of only five or six hundred million yuan when it approached him at the end of last year. When he revisited this project in the past two months and wanted to have a talk, the valuation had increased several times. The key point is that its revenue has not changed much. More directly, it is the valuation that has been boosted by the enthusiasm.

This is not an isolated case. Ye Hua, a senior investor in the commercial space track of Founder Hesheng, also shared a case with us: For an enterprise engaged in satellite laser communication under the Chinese Academy of Sciences system, investors without the background of leading institutions or strong industrial synergy resources may not even be able to get due - diligence materials without using connections. Such enterprises already have revenue and profits, but their revenue comes to some extent from the financing obtained by downstream rocket or satellite general enterprises. Everyone jokingly says that they are making money from downstream investors. This may be the new - era To VC.

Another reason for these projects to "raise prices at will" is that many industrial funds led by local governments are very active. The entry of this new capital has pushed up the industry's valuation system, and the competition for quotas for leading projects has become more intense. For example, some local government funds have invested in almost all projects in the market at a relatively high valuation since last year.

Of course, the level of valuation is always relative.

In Zhang Chi's view, whether the primary market is reasonable depends to some extent on the secondary market. In the first half of the year, people thought the leading satellite and rocket companies were expensive, but in the past two months, as the market in the secondary market has risen, people no longer think they are expensive.

But investors should still have a clear standard in mind. Zhang Chi said, "Taking rocket companies as an example, in the primary market, 20 billion yuan is a threshold. The reason behind this is that if they go public smoothly, the best - case scenario is a market value of about 100 billion yuan, and the worst - case scenario is only 30 to 40 billion yuan. So, basically, when a rocket company reaches a valuation of 15 to 20 billion yuan, it is a threshold."

Compared with Zhang Chi, Lin Ran seems a bit more radical. From his perspective, as long as you can invest in these companies now, you will definitely make money. Moreover, in the current PS valuation model, the "S" has changed from "Sales" to "Strategy". Ultimately, how high the valuation ceiling of a project can be depends on how urgent and pressing the country's demand for this strategic industry is.

Regarding the high valuation and the scramble for projects, Ye Hua also shared an observation: "The commercial space investment circle is relatively small, and people are familiar with each other. Even when competing for projects, they basically maintain a friendly and rational attitude because at this stage, it is more important to jointly expand the industry."

This also leads to another characteristic of the commercial space field, that is, the circle is small and the threshold is high. "If you are in the circle, everything is obvious. But if you are outside the circle, you will find it very difficult to make any progress."

For new investors, without a few years of immersion, it is simply impossible to find the right way and they may even make mistakes. Especially in fields such as inter - satellite laser communication, electric propulsion/chemical propulsion, star sensors, ground laser links, and TR components. If you are not clear about which company has a large supply share and how to allocate it, and only invest based on inaccurate information, it is easy to make mistakes.

What Can Be Invested in Next?

During this communication, an investor told me about a project that made him miss out on billions. According to his recollection, when he first contacted the project, the valuation was only 100 to 200 million yuan. In just seven years, the valuation of this project has increased a hundredfold. Unfortunately, he did not accompany the project to the present.

When I asked him if there are still such high - return projects now, his answer was "it's difficult". However, he also did not deny that a new wave of opportunities is emerging.

As mentioned above, in the subdivided fields of space computing power center and space - based data, new players and new leading companies will emerge. However, regarding the combination of AI and satellites, currently, more often, the inference ability is put on the satellite, rather than completely placing the training end in space as OpenAI envisioned.

Of course, building a computing power center in space also faces various challenges. In addition to rocket carrying capacity, how to reinforce and conduct data transmission are all real problems. Fortunately, except for the cost issue, China and the United States are still at the same starting point in terms of more details in building a space computing power center.

For example, more and more investors are starting to pay attention to the subsystems with a high value proportion on satellites, including propulsion, attitude and orbit control, communication payload