The third city with a GDP exceeding 4 trillion yuan is coming.

This year will again be a big year of economic breakthroughs. Shanghai will break the 6 trillion yuan GDP mark, Shenzhen will cross the 4 trillion yuan threshold, Nanjing will hit the 2 trillion yuan level, and Xuzhou will step into the trillion-yuan GDP club, all of which will come as a natural outcome.

At the end of last year, Shanghai's GDP reached 5.67 trillion yuan, only 330 billion yuan short of the 6 trillion yuan mark. Shanghai's GDP added 171.963 billion yuan in the first half of this year, and the increment hit 267.262 billion yuan in the first three quarters, meaning the increment in the third quarter alone reached 95.299 billion yuan.

Following the usual growth pattern of previous years, growth in the fourth quarter will be even stronger.

Therefore, there is almost no suspense that Shanghai will exceed 6 trillion yuan by the end of the year, and China's first city with a GDP over 6 trillion yuan is about to be born.

Nanjing's GDP at the end of last year was 1.942878 trillion yuan, only 57.122 billion yuan short of 2 trillion yuan. Its GDP increment in the first three quarters of this year reached 89.965 billion yuan, which has already closed the gap.

Xuzhou's GDP at the end of last year was 995.722 billion yuan, 4.278 billion yuan short of the 1 trillion yuan mark. This year it will easily cross the threshold and become the 30th trillion-yuan GDP city across the country.

The latest data for the first three quarters released by Shenzhen has already locked in the 4 trillion yuan mark in advance, making it the third city with a GDP above 4 trillion yuan after Shanghai and Beijing.

At the end of last year, Shenzhen's GDP was 3.87 trillion yuan, less than 130 billion yuan away from 4 trillion yuan. On October 23, the Shenzhen Bureau of Statistics disclosed: The city's gross domestic product for the first three quarters of 2026 was 3.025085 trillion yuan, up 6.0% year on year at constant prices. This figure of 3.025085 trillion yuan represents an increase of 235.441 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, which has already closed the gap to 4 trillion yuan. By the end of this year, Shenzhen will not only exceed 4 trillion yuan, but may also approach 4.2 trillion yuan.

The goal Shenzhen set to hit 5 trillion yuan by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period is likely to be achieved ahead of schedule. In addition, the 6% actual growth rate is 1.4 percentage points higher than the national average, ranking first among first-tier cities.

What underpins Shenzhen's 6% growth rate

When a city with an economic volume close to 4 trillion yuan can still maintain a 6% growth rate, it is natural for us to be curious about the reasons behind it.

The driving force of Shenzhen is hidden in the foundation of the city's development, namely industry and exports. As China's No.1 industrial city and No.1 foreign trade city, these two titles are the most impressive labels among its numerous "first" accolades.

First, let's look at the industrial sector.

For the first three quarters: The added value of the primary industry (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, sideline production and fishery) reached 2.009 billion yuan, up 1.6%; the added value of the secondary industry (general industry) reached 11.02006 trillion yuan, up 7.3%; the added value of the tertiary industry (general service industry) reached 19.2107 trillion yuan, up 5.4%.

The secondary industry registered the fastest growth rate. The tertiary industry, which accounts for the largest proportion of the economy, also recorded a 5.4% growth rate. As China's top industrial city whose total industrial output value, industrial added value and total industrial revenue all rank first nationwide, every move of the industrial sector determines the development momentum of the city.

In the first three quarters, the added value of industries above designated size in Shenzhen increased by 9.5% year on year, 0.8 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. Currently, many cities have not released their relevant data yet.

For reference, Shanghai and Beijing, which both have impressive GDP growth rates and rank as the 3rd and 4th largest industrial cities respectively, recorded a 5.5% and 5.4% year-on-year growth in the added value of industries above designated size in the first three quarters. In addition, Chongqing, a city also dominated by the industrial sector, registered a 0% growth in the added value of industries above designated size in the first 8 months.

With the largest scale and leading growth rate, Shenzhen has built a sufficiently wide moat for itself. Its status as either the 3rd largest GDP city or the top industrial city in China is rock-solid.

If we break down Shenzhen's industrial sector, the main driving force behind its rapid industrial growth is the leading electronic information industry, which is still expanding at a fast pace. Data on the total output value of various industries in Shenzhen in 2024 (2025 data has not been released yet) shows that the total output value of the electronic information industry reached 2.87259 trillion yuan, a single figure that exceeds the total industrial output value of many cities such as Guangzhou, Dongguan and Foshan.

This pillar industry has maintained double-digit growth in the first three quarters. In addition, the high-tech industry and advanced manufacturing sector are also growing at a double-digit pace:

In the first three quarters, the added value of high-tech manufacturing in Shenzhen increased by 11.6%, and the added value of advanced manufacturing increased by 11.9%. Among major industrial categories, the special equipment manufacturing industry grew by 16.4%, the general equipment manufacturing industry by 16.1%, the manufacturing of computers, communications and other electronic equipment by 11.6%, and the manufacturing of electrical machinery and equipment by 11.1%.

The output of high-tech products maintained rapid growth, among which the output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots and lithium-ion batteries increased by 77.8%, 44.1% and 38.5% respectively.

Next, let's look at exports. After the AI wave swept across the globe, a noticeable change is taking place: capital, talent, policy and industrial resources are concentrating in the hard technology field at an unprecedented speed.

Reflected in the foreign trade track, this change is represented by a clear K-shaped divergence among cities divided by hard technology, which has led to a major reshuffle of foreign trade cities this year.

There are six major trends in this reshuffle:

1. Shenzhen's total import and export volume in the first three quarters reached 4.65 trillion yuan, up 38.8% year on year. The scale has exceeded that of the whole last year, hitting a record high, and continues to rank first among mainland cities. Among the total, exports hit 2.41 trillion yuan, up 18.5%; imports hit 2.24 trillion yuan, up 70.1%.

2. Suzhou has replaced Beijing to become the 3rd largest city in terms of total import and export volume.

3. Xi'an stands out as the star performer, with its total import and export volume doubling year on year, ranking first in growth rate. Its exports have entered the national top 10 list for the first time, making it the only inland hinterland city among the top 10 export cities. Its ranking in total import and export volume jumped from 19th last year to 12th now.

4. Hefei, Wuxi and Zhengzhou all recorded extremely strong growth rates. Suzhou's import and export growth rate reached 51.9%, ranking second. The import and export growth rates of the latter four cities all exceeded 30%.

5. Nanjing dropped out of the top 20 cities in terms of import and export volume. Nanjing ranked 17th in import and export volume last year, but it was the only city among the top 20 foreign trade cities that saw a decline in the first half of this year, and has now dropped out of the top 20 in the first three quarters.

6. Wuhan and Hefei have entered the top 20 import and export cities for the first time.

The main driving force behind the skyrocketing export growth of these cities comes from high-tech, high value-added electromechanical products and chips. This can be clearly observed from the national overall data. In the first three quarters of this year, China's total import and export volume reached 32.33 trillion yuan, up 5.3% year on year, among which exports hit 18.62 trillion yuan, up 6.2%; imports hit 13.71 trillion yuan, up 4.1%.

Both figures have hit record highs.

From the perspective of product categories, the main driving force of import and export lies in hard technology products: in the first three quarters, China's equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent leading role, contributing nearly 90% of the export increment. Export products are becoming smarter and greener: the export of integrated circuits increased by 99.1%, and green products such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, wind turbines and their parts increased by 72.3%, 36.4% and 22.4% respectively. In the first three quarters, the total import and export volume of products including industrial robots, electronic components, computer parts and electrical equipment exceeded 10 trillion yuan, up 58.9%, driving the overall import and export growth by 11.3 percentage points.

Shenzhen, which accounts for one tenth of China's total export value, saw its exports in the first three quarters mainly concentrated on electromechanical products. The export of electromechanical products reached 1.87 trillion yuan, up 21.4%, accounting for 77.7% of Shenzhen's total export value in the same period.

Among the total, the export of electronic components reached 390 billion yuan, up 47.7%; the export of computers and their parts reached 313.33 billion yuan, up 32.6%; the export of audio and video equipment and their parts reached 78.3 billion yuan, up 16%; the combined export of the "three new major products" reached 107.3 billion yuan, up 25%.

In terms of imports, the main products are also electromechanical products. In the first three quarters, Shenzhen's import of electromechanical products reached 1.77 trillion yuan, up 64.3%, accounting for 79% of Shenzhen's total import value in the same period. Among the total, the import of integrated circuits reached 959.45 billion yuan, up 62.2%; the import of computer parts reached 523.91 billion yuan, up 135%.

One point can be clearly perceived from the data: Shenzhen has become the allocation hub linking the world and China for high-precision and cutting-edge product resources.

Shenzhen has been deeply embedded in the global hard technology industrial chain. From chips and electronic components to computers and their parts, Shenzhen is not only an important supply base for global high-end manufacturing, but also an import hub for key components and core technology products.

Connecting the global supply chain on one side and relying on the huge local industrial cluster to complete R&D, manufacturing and exports on the other, this is the underlying logic behind Shenzhen's rapid foreign trade growth.

More importantly, industry and foreign trade are not two independent growth curves, but form a mutually reinforcing cycle in Shenzhen: The stronger the industry, the stronger the export competitiveness; the more prosperous exports are, the more they can drive industrial chain expansion, technological iteration and production capacity upgrading.

As global industrial resources are accelerating to concentrate in the hard technology field, Shenzhen is exactly standing at the key node of this industrial chain. That is why even after its economic volume approaches 4 trillion yuan, Shenzhen can still maintain a 6% growth rate. Its growth does not only rely on scale, but also on its industrial structure that perfectly aligns with the rhythm of the new round of global industrial transformation. Behind all this, the fundamental foundation of Shenzhen is scientific and technological innovation.

Develop the city through industry, thrive the city through sci-tech innovation

"Develop the city through industry, thrive the city through sci-tech innovation" is the core principle that Shenzhen has always adhered to in its urban development, and it is also the fundamental reason why Shenzhen can adjust rapidly every time it encounters development bottlenecks.

This is specifically reflected in its huge investment in scientific and technological innovation.

What is the core competitiveness of a country, region or city? It lies in its industry, and the core competitiveness of the industry lies in its scientific and technological R&D capability. What is needed to promote scientific and technological R&D capability? Two things: capital and talent, namely R&D expenditure and R&D personnel, especially capital. To judge whether a place is strong in scientific research, you do not need to look at its fancy propaganda, you only need to see its actual actions, that is, how much money it has invested in scientific and technological R&D.

At present, the 2025 scientific research expenditure data of most cities have not been released yet, and the 2024 data are still being used. In 2024, Shenzhen's R&D expenditure reached 245.307 billion yuan, up 9.7% year on year, with an R&D intensity (the ratio of R&D expenditure to GDP) of 6.67%.

Shenzhen's R&D expenditure ranks second nationwide, higher than that of Shanghai, second only to Beijing. Its R&D intensity ranks first across the country. This is the answer to all puzzles, and also the solution Shenzhen provides for cities that are still trapped in development difficulties: Tell fewer stories, and take more solid actions.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Urban Finance & Economics", written by Yu Fei, and authorized for release by 36Kr.