Global smartphone shipments plummeted

According to the preliminary data newly released by International Data Corporation (IDC), global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 dropped to 255.3 million units, shrinking 22.0% year on year, marking the largest decline on record.

In the *Global Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker* report released by IDC on Wednesday (October 14), it is stated that the storage chip crisis triggered by the artificial intelligence boom continues to hit the smartphone market, with component costs rapidly rising to unprecedented levels and supply becoming increasingly tight.

Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director of IDC's Global Device Research, commented: "The sharp decline that we have long worried about has finally become a reality." "However, the worst period is yet to come."

"Current indicators show that the market has not yet hit the bottom. The cost of storage chips has risen by about 350% compared to last year and is still climbing, putting huge pressure on manufacturers' profit margins and shipment volumes."

"Although the rise in storage chip prices has started to slow down — the quarter-on-quarter growth in the third quarter has dropped to a low double-digit percentage, compared with the 50% to 100% quarter-on-quarter growth in previous quarters — the cost of other key components remains high, further exacerbating the industry's woes."

Source: Official IDC Website

Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President of IDC Global Devices, said: "The Q3 data fully demonstrates the full impact and disruption caused by the storage chip crisis. Today, the pressure is shifting from manufacturers to consumers. As higher prices are passed on to retail terminals, many consumers are choosing to extend the service life of their existing devices."

IDC forecasts that the growth of the smartphone market will remain restricted in 2027, and the market may not recover until at least 2028. The report also mentions that an increasing number of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are beginning to realize that the cost structure of the entire industry is undergoing a permanent structural shift.

However, IDC believes that industry turmoil will also create opportunities for new winners. Therefore, strategic execution capability and innovation capability are more important than ever before. "Manufacturers that can adjust their product, pricing and demand development strategies for the higher cost structure will be the most likely to expand their market share."

Jeronimo added that, "smartphone shipments will remain under pressure in the coming quarters. At the same time, against the backdrop of the shrinking overall market size, manufacturers with scale advantages, stable supply channels and a high proportion of high-end products will continue to expand their market share."

IDC's report shows that both Samsung and Apple's market share rose to 22%, compared with 18% to 19% for the two companies in Q3 of last year. Kiranjeet Kaur, Associate Director of IDC's Global Device Research, said that the manufacturer rankings are roughly the same as the previous quarter, Samsung and Apple are still continuously increasing their market share.

Kaur added that, "despite weak sales performance, some manufacturers have raised their production plans against the background of expected further tightening of component supply next year. If demand continues to be sluggish, these manufacturers may face inventory backlogs as they enter 2027, bringing further downside risks."

This article is from the WeChat Official Account "The Paper Financial Association", author: Zhao Hao, published with authorization from 36Kr.