Duan Yongping has bought Moutai again.

On the morning of September 28, renowned investor Duan Yongping (Snowball ID: Daoxing Wuxing Wo Youxing) posted on the Snowball platform, writing briefly "Bought a little Kweichow Moutai".

The post shows that the average buying price is about 1230 yuan, with a total of 30,000 shares, costing more than 36.9 million yuan in total.

After the news was released, the share price of Kweichow Moutai rallied and turned positive at around 1:30 p.m. that day. By the close, the stock price rose 0.56% to 1243 yuan, with a total market value of 1.55 trillion yuan.

"I bought Moutai again today, would you be confused?"

This is not the first time Duan Yongping has made a move recently.

On May 7 this year, an investor asked him on Snowball: "I have been fully invested in Moutai for half a year now, and I am wondering whether I should adjust part of my position to Pop Mart."

Duan Yongping responded directly: "I bought Moutai again today, would you be confused?"

In addition, in January and October 2025, he publicly posted to say that he had bought Kweichow Moutai.

Duan Yongping's investment in Moutai can be traced back to 2012, which has been more than ten years so far.

Sorting out his public statements, the core logic is consistent: he values Moutai's business model and long-term demand, and believes that the trend of consumers "drinking less alcohol but drinking high-quality alcohol" will still support Moutai's demand; the short-term slowdown in sales does not mean that the fundamental long-term value has changed.

He also said that measured over a ten-year period, Moutai is very likely to outperform inflation, but emphasized that this is only a personal judgment and not a guarantee of returns.

100 Million Yuan Bet: Challenging Domestic Public Funds, Original Post Has Disappeared

In August this year, Duan Yongping took an even bigger action on Snowball.

On August 13, a netizen suggested that he refer to Buffett's "Ten-Year Bet" to make a public long-term investment agreement. Duan Yongping immediately responded:

I dare to bet 100 million RMB with any domestic public fund holding Moutai shares, with a ten-year time limit. The premise is that the recipient of the money donated by the winner must be recognized by both parties in advance. I will donate the money to BBK Experimental School.

He also added that if any netizen wants to join the bet, the premise is that "you have to donate 100 million yuan first, then you can join."

The background data of this statement is: by the end of June 2026, the share price of Kweichow Moutai has increased by 412.11% in the past ten years, outperforming the 133.96% increase of the partial equity mixed fund index in the same period. However, in the past five years, Moutai's share price fell by 33.31%, underperforming the 8.56% increase of the partial equity mixed fund index in the same period.

Regarding this bet, private equity fund manager Dan Bin later responded, saying that there is no need to compete through public bets, and the performance after ten years can be compared naturally. He also said that investment needs to "advance with the times and look at the global market", and while adhering to core values, it is also necessary to embrace the new era dividends of AI and semiconductors.

However, when checking the Snowball platform now, the original post of Duan Yongping's above-mentioned bet can no longer be found.

Background of the Baijiu Industry: Peak Season Without Strong Sales, Moutai Stands Out Alone

Duan Yongping's continuous increase in positions in Moutai takes place against the background of overall pressure on the entire baijiu industry.

Ahead of this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day "Double Holidays", a number of industry insiders told The Paper that the overall sales performance is "not strong in the traditional peak season", the sub-high-end baijiu market is collectively cold, and some distributors bluntly said that "apart from Moutai, many baijiu products have already hit rock bottom prices".

The terminal retail price of Feitian Moutai is relatively firm, with self-operated stores implementing a price of 1766 yuan per bottle, and most terminals selling it at more than 1800 yuan per bottle.

Xiao Zhuqing, an independent industry commentator, told The Paper that "except for Moutai which maintains rigid and strong demand, the vast majority of famous baijiu brands, regional baijiu brands, sub-high-end and mass-market baijiu are collectively facing a cold market. The baijiu industry has officially entered a new cycle of shrinking competition where only leading players enjoy exclusive dividends."

The research report of Sinolink Securities pointed out that the "volume, price and profit" of the industry has been in a gradual bottoming stage, and it is expected that the year-on-year decline in the industry's sales performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day will further narrow to a slight decline or even stabilize at the same level as last year.

At the institutional level, Jefferies released a research report in August, believing that Moutai is accelerating its transformation to a luxury goods operation model, and its logic is "increasingly similar to Hermès", giving a target price of 2100 yuan, maintaining the buy rating, which leaves about 56% upside space compared to the stock price at that time.

This article does not constitute personal investment advice, does not represent the position of the platform. The market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, please make independent judgments and decisions.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Wall Street CN", author: Long Yue, published with authorization from 36Kr.