Elon Musk's Starlink has exceeded 11,000 in-orbit satellites, and its "space land grab" is blocking latecomers.

On September 6, the Falcon 9 rocket lifted off again, sending 27 Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit. This is the 80th Starlink launch mission SpaceX has completed this year. Data updated on September 7 by Jonathan's Space Report, a professional orbital tracking organization, shows that the number of Starlink satellites currently in orbit has exceeded 11,000.

Data previously released by Soochow Securities shows that by the end of March this year, Starlink satellites accounted for about 75% of all active satellites worldwide. But Musk is not satisfied. SpaceX formally submitted an application to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) several months ago, requesting approval to launch and operate up to 100,000 third-generation Starlink satellites.

Orbital and frequency resources in space are limited and valuable, and the "space enclosure" behavior has drawn global attention. At the recent high-level seminar "Space for Development" held in Shanghai, the dilemma of frequency-orbit resource management and the challenges of space order governance have become the most frequently discussed topics among Chinese and foreign experts. "Space resources are not exclusive to a few countries," an expert said bluntly at the meeting. Many others emphasized "inclusiveness", arguing that it is necessary to "guarantee the equal rights of all member states to enjoy orbital and spectrum resources".

In addition, the pressure from space debris and collision avoidance, as well as the problem of frequency-orbit coordination efficiency, are also risk challenges that the current industry must face.

The "Space Enclosure" Is Becoming Increasingly Fierce

In recent years, the boom of low-orbit satellite constellations has swept across the world, becoming a "strategic high ground that all parties are vying for". At present, the number of Starlink satellites in orbit has an order-of-magnitude gap with other constellations.

Currently, the number of Starlink satellites in orbit exceeds 11,000, while Europe's Eutelsat OneWeb, the US's Amazon Leo, and China's GW constellation and Qianfan constellation each have hundreds of satellites, with a clear gap. Moreover, SpaceX has huge advantages in satellite production capacity, launch capability, launch cost and other aspects, which makes the difficulty of latecomers catching up increase non-linearly and sharply.

However, space resources are not inexhaustible. The industry generally believes that low Earth orbit can only accommodate about 60,000 satellites. By the beginning of 2026, the total number of satellites declared to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) worldwide has exceeded one million.

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The current ITU frequency-orbit resource allocation follows the "first-come, first-served" principle — whoever declares and launches first locks the frequency use right and orbital position, and latecomers must prove that they will not interfere with the "first comers". This rule directly leads to first-mover countries carrying out large-scale "enclosure movement", leaving developing countries facing the dilemma of "no way to go".

During the high-level seminar "Space for Development", Tomas Lamanauskas, ITU Deputy Secretary-General, said that the global space economy will reach a total scale of 1.8 trillion US dollars by 2035, but some developing countries have many restrictions in space technology, institutional system, capital financing and other aspects. Without targeted support and assistance, the development gap will continue to widen.

Elsayed Azzouz, a member of the ITU Radio Regulations Board, said that space resources are not exclusive to a few countries. Space technology is gradually becoming the foundation for promoting global economic development and facilitating digital transformation, and is an important starting point for bridging the global digital divide, helping to build highly resilient digital infrastructure, and is of great significance for ensuring information and communication in developing countries and promoting balanced development.

Victor Benezeth Bayona, Radio Spectrum Management Engineer at the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority, believes that to improve global space governance, the ITU must adhere to the principle of inclusiveness to ensure that all member states enjoy equal rights to orbital and spectrum resources. "It is only right that the ITU ensures that developing countries can access the above resources fairly." he said.

Debris Crisis and Collision Avoidance Risks

The competition for frequency-orbit resources is only the tip of the iceberg, and the physical security of the space environment is also facing severe challenges. Tomas Lamanauskas disclosed a set of alarming data: with the increasingly frequent space activities, the outer space environment is getting more and more crowded, and the risk of space debris continues to intensify. At present, satellite operators need to carry out tens of thousands of collision avoidance operations every month to avoid space debris collisions and signal interference problems.

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At the Arria Formula meeting of the UN Security Council on low Earth orbit satellites held at the end of last year, the Chinese representative directly named Starlink, saying that it squeezes frequency-orbit resources and increases collision risks. The Chinese representative said in his speech: "(Starlink satellites) have made dangerous approaches to the Chinese Space Station twice, forcing the latter to take emergency collision avoidance measures, directly threatening the lives of astronauts; not long ago, a Starlink satellite disintegrated and produced more than 100 pieces of debris, which is an almost unsolvable risk for spacecraft in developing countries that lack orbital control capabilities and space situational awareness capabilities."

Relevant experts suggest that international organizations, national regulatory authorities and constellation system operators need to join forces to promote the construction of international rules and cooperation mechanisms adapted to the development of large constellations, such as establishing a constellation system orbit data sharing platform to provide data support for the orbit coordination procedure, and at the same time introducing the capability of collision warning information sharing to interact data with various Space Situational Awareness (SSA) platforms, so as to reduce information interaction obstacles caused by non-technical factors.

Space debris is also a tough problem. Space debris larger than 1 cm in size can cause catastrophic damage, enough to penetrate the outer shell of spacecraft, damage solar panels or key sensors, and even lead to the failure of the entire satellite. Relevant data shows that there are more than 1.2 million pieces of space debris larger than 1 cm, of which more than 50,000 pieces are larger than 10 cm.

In view of the existing space debris, experts believe that it is necessary to further strengthen international cooperation and carry out efficient work in the aspects of prediction, avoidance, protection and removal.

Forcing the Reform of Space Governance

At the high-level seminar "Space for Development", Per Hovstad, Chief Spectrum Engineer of Asia Satellite Telecommunications Co., Ltd., mentioned a noteworthy phenomenon: the usage of Article 4.4 of the ITU Radio Regulations continues to grow. He believes this is a warning signal that may weaken the binding force of the Radio Regulations.

Article 4.4 is one of the few "exception channels" in the Radio Regulations. Under normal circumstances, countries should assign frequencies in accordance with the frequency allocation table, and new assignments shall not cause harmful interference to systems operating in accordance with the regulations. Article 4.4 allows competent authorities to assign frequencies in violation of the allocation table under specific conditions, at the cost of "double waiver": they shall not cause harmful interference, nor shall they claim any interference protection, and once interfered, they can only bear it on their own.

The frequency allocation table is revised by the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) every 3 to 4 years, while the low-orbit giant constellations are growing explosively at a rate of thousands of satellites per year. The update speed of the allocation table cannot keep up with the evolution of space services, so operators bypass the allocation table and cite Article 4.4 to "get on the bus first and buy the ticket later" to seize frequency and orbit resources. The original intention of this clause is to keep exceptions as "exceptions", but in reality, it is gradually becoming the norm.

At the international level, a frequency band may involve the mutual coordination of dozens or even hundreds of satellite systems, and each pair of coordination relationships requires separate technical analysis and frequency compatibility demonstration, and the coordination cycle is often calculated in years.

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Even within a country, frequency-orbit coordination also faces serious efficiency problems. Wang Chi, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, disclosed in his proposal during the 2024 National Two Sessions: the remote sensing frequency band 8025~8400 MHz commonly used by Earth observation satellites involves more than 180 frequency documents from more than 60 domestic units, and it usually takes 1 to 2 years to complete the coordination according to the original process. This not only affects the on-time launch of satellites, but also affects China's favorable position in the international application for frequency resources.

For this reason, the National Radio Administration Office issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Evaluation of Third-Party Institutions for Domestic Coordination of Satellite Networks (2026-2027)" in early September this year, introducing independent professional third-party institutions to evaluate and judge technical disputes, so as to break the bottleneck of "difficult and slow coordination".

Hu Yuemei, an expert in the research on radio spectrum development, utilization and technological innovation, mentioned another situation: due to the excessively fast satellite launch speed, the actual in-orbit operation status of satellites is "more and more inconsistent" with the information registered at the ITU. As a result, space governance is becoming more and more difficult. "With the registered address, it is difficult to track the rapidly changing satellites. This is a problem that the ITU needs to solve next, so that governance can keep up with technological development."

WRC-27 Becomes a Key Node

The 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-27) to be held next year will be a key node for the reshaping of global space rules.

Tomas Lamanauskas revealed that about 80% of the topics of WRC-27 are related to space services, which will lay the foundation for the future construction of wireless communication infrastructure and the long-term development of the global space industry. All parties will carry out in-depth games on core topics such as spectrum allocation, orbit management, space debris mitigation, and satellite licensing. For example, Topic 1.13 will focus on the integrated development of space services and mobile communication services.

Victor Strelets, Chairman of Study Group 4 (SG4) of the ITU Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R), believes that the current regulatory mechanism for radio spectrum and satellite orbit resources has not fully taken into account the development prospects of new technologies and the inherent global nature of this field. Some problems are expected to be solved at WRC-27, but there are still many problems to be dealt with. One of the core issues is whether to further strengthen the rights and responsibilities of ITU competent departments and member states under the background of changes in the current satellite industry pattern.

Space technology is shifting from traditional space exploration to a new stage of creating social and economic benefits and improving people's well-being relying on space and satellite technologies. To achieve this goal depends on whether the international community can have the courage to reform at key nodes such as WRC-27, and build a new, more fair, efficient and sustainable space governance order.

This article is from the WeChat official account "IT Times" (ID: vittimes), author: Qian Lifu, editors: Qian Lifu, Sun Yan, published with authorization from 36Kr.