These cities have started "competing for the elderly"

The "talent war" has finally spread to the elderly population.

According to media reports, some regions are now focusing on developing the silver economy, and elderly people are increasingly becoming a highly sought-after group that local governments are competing to attract.

Jilin Province has clearly stated its goal to build a nationwide "residential health and wellness destination", planning to attract 3.8 million "migratory bird-style" long-stay visitors by 2028, and reach a total silver economy industry scale of 500 billion yuan by 2030.

To achieve this goal, the province plans to allocate 100 million yuan in special funding annually for three consecutive years to invite people to settle and stay.

Hainan has introduced the "Several Measures for Promoting High-Quality Development of Residential Elderly Care", which for the first time establishes a provincial-level policy system for residential elderly care, integrating residential elderly care into the overall industrial development promotion plan, and striving to build a top-tier national residential elderly care destination.

Panzhihua City in Sichuan Province has proposed to expand and upgrade the service industry, accelerate the construction of a core hub for the province's key silver economy industrial chains, and continuously apply for the establishment of provincial-level high-quality modern service industry clusters.

Statistics show that more than 500,000 people come to Panzhihua for health and wellness purposes every year, and the added value of the health and wellness industry has exceeded 10 billion yuan for 5 consecutive years, reaching 17.7 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 12.7% of the city's total GDP.

In fact, multiple provinces have explicitly proposed developing the "silver economy" in their 15th Five-Year Plan outlines.

According to the "Blue Book of China's Silver Economy", the scale of China's silver economy reached 9 trillion yuan in 2025, and is projected to hit 30 trillion yuan by 2035, accounting for roughly 10% of the national GDP.

Then who will emerge as the big winner in this trillion-yuan market track?

01

Data shows that by the end of 2025, the number of people aged 60 and above across the country has exceeded 320 million.

The growing elderly population naturally corresponds to a larger-scale demand for health and wellness, vacation, and leisure services.

When talking about elderly care, many people first think of the "migratory bird-style" climate-driven relocation. In this regard, Hainan, Yunnan, Guizhou and other regions have long reaped the benefits of the silver economy thanks to their remarkable climate advantages.

A typical example is Hainan, which has a permanent resident population of just over 10 million, but receives more than 1 million elderly long-stay visitors who come to spend the winter every year.

However, climate-dependent elderly care destinations show obvious seasonal differentiation characteristics.

For instance, in the "2025 China Migratory Bird-Style Elderly Care Winter Habitat Suitability Index", the listed cities are mainly concentrated in Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Yunnan and other regions. These places have mild winter temperatures, and even enjoy a year-round spring-like climate, making them ideal for avoiding cold weather during elderly care.

While in the "2025 China Migratory Bird-Style Elderly Care Summer Habitat Suitability Index", the listed cities are primarily located in Guizhou, Yunnan, and northeastern provinces. These regions boast distinct "cool climate" advantages in summer, making them perfect for escaping the heat during elderly care.

To a large extent, developing the silver economy in these regions with prominent climate advantages can be described as "a gift bestowed by nature". Moreover, as extreme weather events become more frequent in recent years, these advantages will continue to expand.

Nevertheless, nurtured post-development factors beyond natural climate conditions are equally crucial. Factors such as transportation convenience, medical supporting facilities, service quality, and cost-effectiveness all directly influence the elderly's "voting with their feet" decisions.

In response, some local governments are taking targeted measures to address existing shortcomings.

For example, to "solve problems such as difficulties in recruiting and retaining talent, insufficient professional competence, and high turnover rates", Hainan has introduced the "Implementation Measures for Reward and Subsidies for Elderly Care Workers (Trial)", aiming to strengthen frontline elderly care teams and consolidate the talent foundation for the industry.

Jilin Province has proposed to cultivate a number of pilot counties (cities, districts), resorts, scenic area clusters, villages, residential communities, and elderly care institutions for residential health and wellness, adding 30,000 new residential health and wellness beds. Panzhihua has clearly outlined plans to create 16 distinctive new consumption scenarios and 68 meal assistance points, forming a city-wide "15-minute elderly care service circle".

02

Certainly, equating the silver economy entirely with "migratory bird-style elderly care" would be a narrow perspective. Generally speaking, for regions with prominent climate advantages, their core focus is to attract elderly people to relocate and settle there.

For the vast majority of other regions, the priority is to provide more tailored consumption scenarios and products that suit the needs of the elderly population.

For instance, in the Yangtze River Delta, Jiangsu Province has proposed promoting integrated development of the elderly care industry with sectors including healthcare, cultural tourism, finance and insurance, and manufacturing, to cultivate a number of characteristic industrial parks for niche segments of the silver economy.

Anhui Province is exploring the construction of regional comprehensive service centers for rehabilitation assistive devices, to nurture a group of provincial-level characteristic industrial parks for rehabilitation assistive devices.

In central China, Hubei Province has clearly accelerated efforts to develop silver-themed trains and silver-themed cruises, launching more than 5 cross-provincial silver tourism special trains and themed characteristic tourism routes, and encouraging the development of educational service products such as silver-themed cultural research tours and study-based retirement programs.

In the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, Sichuan Province has explicitly promoted the application of artificial intelligence in cultural tourism, medical care, elderly care, urban and rural governance and other fields, achieving a 90% adoption rate for applications of new-generation smart terminals and intelligent agents.

In addition, multiple regions including Hebei, Jiangsu, Henan, Hunan, Guangxi, Chongqing, and Gansu have clearly proposed to create suitable employment positions for the elderly, committed to unleashing the potential of "the elderly continuing to contribute to society".

In fact, the national "Opinions on Developing the Silver Economy to Enhance the Wellbeing of the Elderly" issued in 2024 has explicitly required focusing on diverse needs and cultivating high-potential industries.

This includes strengthening innovation in elderly-oriented products, fostering new formats of smart healthy elderly care, vigorously developing the rehabilitation assistive device industry, and promoting the anti-aging industry, among other initiatives.

Compared with the relocation-oriented residential elderly care model, this sector is more focused on directly "selling" products and services to elderly consumers. It is worth noting that these industries are still in their growth stage, with huge untapped market potential. In the future, a number of enterprises and industrial clusters with national influence are expected to emerge in relevant regions.

03

From a macro perspective, as population aging deepens, every region will inevitably claim a share of the silver economy to varying degrees.

However, to truly establish an influential silver industry, it is essential to assess the actual external radiation capacity a region can achieve.

For example, the elderly care service-oriented model, which focuses on attracting elderly visitors from across the country, relies heavily on prominent natural climate advantages, as seen in regions like Hainan, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Northeast China;

The elderly care product-oriented model prioritizes delivering competitive products to the national market, where regional competitiveness is more determined by business environment, industrial ecosystem, and innovation capabilities.

It is particularly noteworthy that the silver economy does not necessarily follow the "the strong get stronger" logic. Small regions with unique climate features or solid industrial foundations also have the opportunity to stand out and succeed.

This can be clearly observed from the composition of cities on the aforementioned migratory bird-style habitat ranking lists.

This once again confirms a simple logic: as long as regions leverage local conditions and identify their comparative advantages, every place has the potential to build a competitive industry.

Nevertheless, the ultimate scale and expansion speed of the silver economy in the future will still be constrained by a critical external factor: the actual consumption capacity and willingness of the elderly population.

According to a research report, more than 80% of elderly people have not traveled outside their local areas in the past year; among the small number of elderly travelers, over 80% spend less than 5,000 yuan on travel annually.

The "Annual Report on China's Domestic Tourism Development (2023-2024)" provides a more intuitive consumption profile: 60% of people aged 60 and above choose low-cost tour packages priced below 200 yuan.

Meanwhile, data from "Wu Xiaobo Channel" shows that categorized by city tier, the average monthly pension for retirees in first-tier cities is about 4,860 yuan; the average figure drops to 2,950 yuan per month in third- and fourth-tier cities.

In the vast rural areas, the average monthly pension is only 223 yuan. This means that the current elderly population's capacity to spend on the silver economy may not be as strong as many people imagine.

This is an uncertainty that local governments need to face squarely when accelerating their layout in the silver economy.

This article is sourced from the WeChat Official Account "Western City Events", written by Western Jun, and published by 36Kr with authorization.