Large Antennas vs. Multi-Constellations: Who Will Grab the First Pot of Gold in Direct Satellite-to-Phone Connectivity?

Direct satellite connection for mobile phones has completely bid farewell to the stage of concept hype.

As of June 2026, three clear leading routes have basically taken shape in the global market:

Starlink, leveraging its scale advantage, was the first to integrate satellite services into the regular packages of operators.

AST SpaceMobile adheres to an aggressive approach, using giant space - borne arrays to tackle the broadband experience for ordinary mobile phones head - on.

Lynk avoids direct competition and enters the market through low - speed connections and edge coverage enhancement.

Meanwhile, the early attempts by Apple and Huawei at the consumer end have completed the initial user education, and domestic low - orbit direct - connection mobile phones have officially entered the intensive verification period.

Currently, the industry focus is on whether a more practical business closed - loop can be created.

For example, can the density of the in - orbit constellation support continuous coverage? Are operators willing to deeply integrate it into the existing tariff system? Can ordinary mobile phones achieve native support without users' awareness? And can the unit price really drop to the acceptable range of the mass market?

Starlink's Pragmatism

On the track of commercialization, Starlink is undoubtedly in the lead.

Different from the traditional satellite communication concept, Starlink's core logic is to transform satellites into "LTE base stations in the sky". By leasing the existing spectrum of mobile operators, ordinary mobile phones on the market can directly connect with satellites without any hardware modification or dedicated terminals.

Judging from the launch rhythm, this route has a very aggressive offensive.

In early 2024, SpaceX launched the first batch of 6 satellites with Direct to Cell (D2C) capabilities. By the end of 2025, its first - generation D2C constellation was basically formed, with the number of in - orbit direct - connection satellites exceeding 650.

The scale effect has also directly led to commercial monetization. In July 2025, T - Mobile officially launched the "T - Satellite with Starlink" service, taking the lead in covering more than 500,000 square miles of ground signal blind areas in the United States. The service is priced at $10 per month and is directly free for some high - end package users.

However, the current T - Satellite service does not support full - function Internet access. It currently mainly supports text messages, picture and audio messages, location sharing, and some basic functions of satellite - adapted applications such as WhatsApp, Google Maps, X, AllTrails, and AccuWeather.

Based on a study of crowdsourced measurement data, it is estimated that the mobile data capacity of Starlink D2C under outdoor conditions is about 4 Mbps per beam. This figure is closer to early light - data services rather than a substitute for ground 5G.

This also reflects Starlink's current relatively practical business strategy. It is not eager to replicate the complete 5G experience in uncharted areas but chooses to solve the problem of "whether there is a connection" first. Allowing users not to be completely out of touch in the wilderness, far - reaching seas, or disaster sites, and retaining a low - speed but crucial backup link, in itself, has commercial value.

AST SpaceMobile's High - altitude Gamble on Giant Antennas

If Starlink takes the route of "taking small steps quickly and starting with low - speed", then AST SpaceMobile seems a bit radical. It skips the transitional stage of text messages and light data and aims directly at 4G/5G broadband connections for ordinary mobile phones.

The only way to enable satellites hundreds of kilometers away from the ground to pick up the weak transmission power of ordinary mobile phones is to enlarge the satellite antennas.

In September 2024, AST launched the first batch of 5 BlueBird commercial satellites. Then, in mid - June 2026, it successfully sent three new - generation BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 satellites into orbit, bringing the total number of in - orbit satellites to 10.

The communication array area of this new - generation of satellites reaches an astonishing 2400 square feet, making it a veritable giant among current low - orbit commercial communication satellites. Such a huge antenna and beam control ability are precisely to ensure that ordinary mobile phones can directly make voice and video calls.

Operator resources are another ace in AST's hand.

Currently, AST has signed cooperation agreements with nearly 60 network operators, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Google, and Rakuten, with potential coverage of more than 3 billion users. This deep - binding also reveals an industry rule, that is, direct satellite connection for mobile phones cannot bypass operators.

Phone numbers, spectrum, billing systems, roaming agreements, and even compliance responsibilities are all in the hands of operators. If satellite companies want to do business with the general public, they must become an extension of the operator's network.

However, AST's shortcomings are also obvious. Although 10 satellites have verified the technical feasibility of broadband connection, it is still far from achieving global continuous coverage.

According to its plan, 45 satellites need to be deployed by the end of 2026, and the long - term goal is 90. On this path, continuous manufacturing, high - frequency launches, and continuous financing capabilities are all tough challenges.

Lynk, an "Edge - Coverage Enhancer" Operating on the Periphery

Compared with the two star players, Lynk has a much lower profile, but it represents another way of survival, that is, not competing on technical parameters but focusing on providing edge coverage enhancement for operators.

As an early direct - connection satellite company to obtain FCC commercial licenses, Lynk has currently signed commercial contracts with mobile operators in more than 50 countries.

Whether it was approved to provide direct - connection services with DOCOMO Pacific in some parts of the United States in 2025 or jointly tested 900MHz enterprise communication with Anterix in May 2026, Lynk's focus is very clear - to penetrate into the deep waters of the industry.

Islands, forests, mines, pastures, trans - national shipping, or power line inspections. These scenarios often do not require high - speed broadband for watching short videos but have a rigid demand for text message back - transmission, positioning alerts, and low - frequency status monitoring. Through low - cost, low - speed wide - area coverage, Lynk is taking the lead in capturing a stable revenue share in the corners that the ground network tends to overlook.

Apple and Huawei's "Popularization" Education at the Terminal

Strictly speaking, terminal manufacturers are not in the main battlefield of low - orbit mobile phone direct satellite connection. However, Apple and Huawei have completed extremely important mass - market education through their respective products.

Apple's Model (Emphasizing Safety):

Since the introduction of satellite communication in the iPhone 14, Apple has injected hundreds of millions of dollars in funds and prepayments into Globalstar through its advanced manufacturing fund to expand satellite infrastructure. Apple's approach is very conservative. The satellite function is strictly limited to safety aspects such as emergency SOS and person - finding and positioning, similar to a hardware insurance as a last resort.

Huawei's Model (Emphasizing Experience):

Starting from the Mate 60 Pro, Huawei used China Telecom's Tiantong high - orbit satellite capabilities to bring "satellite calls" into consumer - grade smartphones with a strong sense of perception for the first time. It made the domestic public realize that mobile phones can really make calls as casually as having a chat in places without ground base stations.

The approaches of these two giants are fundamentally different from those of network operators such as Starlink.

Apple and Huawei are enhancing mobile phone functions and using satellite communication as a premium selling point for high - end models. In contrast, Starlink, AST, etc. are "operating networks" and trying to directly integrate all ordinary mobile phones into their space - based networks.

China's Path: Interweaving of High - orbit Maturity and Low - orbit Breakthrough

Looking at the domestic mobile phone satellite communication, there is currently a clear pattern of two parallel lines.

The first is the communication link based on high - orbit satellites (Tiantong - 1). Driven jointly by domestic mobile phone brands such as Huawei and China Telecom, this line has achieved quite mature commercial operation and formed large - scale revenue at the consumer end.

The second is the more challenging direct connection of low - orbit ordinary mobile phones. This involves the networking density of low - orbit constellations, on - satellite payloads, the reconstruction of the ground core network, and the adaptation of chip protocols. It is the core area of global competition.

Currently, China's Qianfan constellation is accelerating its progress, and basic operators such as China Mobile and China Telecom are also intensively conducting native verifications of space - ground integration and satellite Internet. The test of direct voice calls between ordinary smartphones and low - orbit satellites completed by Yuanxin Satellite earlier is a key technical node on the domestic low - orbit D2C route.

However, overall, domestic low - orbit direct connection has not yet entered large - scale commercial operation. The next breakthrough still depends on four core indicators, namely the expansion speed of the constellation scale, the achievement of global continuous coverage, the depth of operator involvement, and the native support of the mobile phone chip industry chain for relevant protocols.

D2C and 3GPP NTN: Seize the Market in the Short Term, Return to the Mainstream in the Long Term

Globally, the evolution of future technology standards is following two paths.

In the short term, it's about D2C; in the long term, it's about NTN. D2C is responsible for running through the market and expanding the market share before the standards are fully mature. NTN, on the other hand, determines whether satellite communication can truly become a globally - used infrastructure like today's 4G/5G.

Looking back on the eve of commercial operation, for direct satellite connection of mobile phones to achieve true mass popularity, it still has to cross three thresholds:

Absolute dominance in the number of in - orbit satellites;

Seamless integration into operator packages;

Native and seamless support at the terminal.

Direct satellite connection for mobile phones is never intended to subvert or replace ground 5G. Its real value is to fill the vacuum areas where the economics of ground networks never work out, such as the wilderness, the ocean, high altitudes, and sudden disaster sites.

The end - goal of this competition lies in redefining the SIM card inserted in the mobile phone.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Star Movement Without Borders", author: UniLym, published by 36Kr with authorization.