The power load in the south has continuously hit new highs: The first to be hit by the "high-temperature dividend" is the once-disdained thermal power.

Let's start with a counter - intuitive judgment: One of the most certain winners this summer might be thermal power, which has been overshadowed by the new energy narrative for several years and was once considered "dirty and outdated".

On May 22nd, the National Development and Reform Commission gave a power forecast for this summer at a press conference: After comprehensive analysis, the highest national power consumption load this summer will reach about 1.6 billion kilowatts, an increase of about 90 million kilowatts compared to last year. (Source: China News Service, May 22, 2026) What does 90 million kilowatts mean? It's equivalent to adding a Henan Province to the national power consumption map out of thin air.

Subsequently, on June 1st, the flood season officially began across the country, and high temperatures arrived early in many southern regions. The air - conditioning load was quickly released. The market's first reaction was to find out "who will benefit the most".

Based on the thinking inertia of recent years, the answer seems to be new energy sources such as photovoltaic and wind power. However, it's actually thermal power that is the first to be hit by this wave of "high - temperature dividends".

This is strange: It's already 2026, and the installed capacity of wind and solar power has historically exceeded that of thermal power. Why is it still the "old workhorse" thermal power units that are the first to be remembered and benefit at peak times?

To clarify this, we need to understand a mechanism that many people have overlooked.

Why is thermal power the first to be thought of when high temperatures arrive?

The reason is actually quite simple: The sun sets, and the wind may stop, but the air - conditioners at night can't stop.

There is a distinct characteristic of power consumption in summer: The highest load often occurs from evening to night. This is precisely the time when the output of photovoltaic power drops sharply and wind power is unstable. The fact that new energy "relies on the weather" means that it can't be relied on at the most critical peak times.

At this time, the main power source that can be on standby and stably supply power is thermal power. It doesn't depend on the weather. As long as there is coal, it can send out electricity according to the dispatching instructions. In other words, no matter how much new energy is installed, the power system must retain enough thermal power units to "hold the fort" and deal with such extreme peak situations. This ability is called "the basic guarantee and regulatory ability of the system" in the industry.

So you'll see a seemingly contradictory phenomenon: On one hand, the installed capacity of wind and solar power has historically exceeded that of thermal power in 2025, and the installed capacity of solar power is expected to exceed that of coal - fired power for the first time; on the other hand, at the peak times of the summer peak - shaving period, it's still thermal power that can support the entire system. The "status" of installed capacity is changing, but the "role" at peak times remains the same.

Only by understanding this role can we understand the real change in the profit - making logic of thermal power.

The money from thermal power is changing from "selling electricity" to "selling electricity + standby service"

In the past, how did thermal power make money? Simply put, it was to generate one kilowatt - hour of electricity and sell it for money. The electricity price included costs such as coal. There was a fatal problem with this model: When the coal price rose, thermal power was prone to losses, and the profit was extremely unstable. This is also the reason why thermal power has been criticized in the past few years.

However, since 2024, a key mechanism has changed the revenue structure of thermal power.

The state has established a coal - fired power capacity price mechanism, changing the electricity price of thermal power from a "single - part system" to a "two - part system". To give the most intuitive example: It's like your mobile phone bill, which has changed from "charging only based on call duration" to "monthly rent + call charges". (Source: People's Daily, February 2024)

Here, the "monthly rent" is the capacity price. It means that as long as the thermal power unit remains in a standby state ready to generate electricity at any time, even if it doesn't generate much electricity during the low - power - consumption period, it can first get a "standby fee" to recover fixed costs. And the "call charges" are the electricity price for the actual electricity generated and sold.

The significance of this reform is that it provides a "foundation" for the profit of thermal power. According to the policy, the fixed cost for calculating the capacity price is uniformly set at 330 yuan per kilowatt per year across the country; from 2024 to 2025, most regions will recover about 30%, and since 2026, this proportion will be uniformly increased to no less than 50%, that is, no less than 165 yuan per kilowatt per year. (Source: National Development and Reform Commission, 21st Century Business Herald)

That is to say, since this year, thermal power can recover a larger amount of fixed costs just by "lying in standby". This money is guaranteed, which stabilizes the lower limit of profit.

Putting the "foundation" and "high temperatures" together, the accounts become clear

Now, looking at the two things together, the profit - making logic of thermal power this summer is complete.

On one hand, there is the "lower limit" supported by the capacity price: Whether it generates electricity or not, there is an increasingly large fixed income for standby.

On the other hand, there is the "elasticity" brought by high - temperature peaks: When the limit load of 1.6 billion kilowatts presses down, the power supply and demand are temporarily tight, and the spot and monthly trading electricity prices in the power market will rise accordingly. As the main supplier during peak times, the more electricity thermal power generates and the more expensive the time period it generates in, the greater the income elasticity of the electricity part.

The lower limit is stabilized by the policy, and the upper limit is opened by high temperatures. The core logic for the market to judge that the profit of thermal power is expected to continue to recover lies between this stability and elasticity. Coupled with the overall decline in coal prices and the reduction in power - generation costs in the past two years, the "cost - effectiveness" of the thermal power business is indeed different from that of the past few years.

It should be specifically noted that what is discussed here is the repair of the profit - making logic at the industry level, not a prediction of the stock prices of any company. The capacity price standards vary from place to place. Whether the peak electricity price can be realized and to what extent depends on the actual weather this summer, the power supply and demand in each region, and the market trading results, which are uncertain. This is an account with a logical basis but still needs to be verified by actual performance.

Something more worthy of remembering than the "comeback of thermal power"

At this point, we need to cool down the idea of the "comeback of thermal power".

The repair of the profit - making logic of thermal power does not mean that it will return to the "C - position" in the energy structure. On the contrary: The installed capacity of wind and solar power has exceeded that of thermal power, and the general direction of energy transformation has not changed and will not change. The new role of thermal power is not a "return of the protagonist", but a transformation from the "old energy that should withdraw when wind and solar power are sufficient" to a "ballast stone" - like guarantor and regulator in the new - type power system.

This is the real meaning behind the capacity price reform: It uses a market - based price mechanism to clearly price the "standby" and "backup" functions of thermal power. It allows the units that step up at peak times and support the system when wind and solar power fail to receive compensation that matches their value.

After all, what the power system needs is never an "either - or" situation. It's not that if new energy is good, thermal power should be eliminated; instead, after wind and solar power become the main sources, those who "back up" their instability should be fairly recognized by this mechanism.

Let's go back to the counter - intuitive judgment at the beginning.

This summer, when the load of 1.6 billion kilowatts presses down and the air - conditioners are buzzing, perhaps what really deserves attention is not the photovoltaic panels on the rooftops, but the coal - fired power unit in the distance that has always been considered "dirty" but silently supports the entire system on the hottest nights.

It hasn't made a comeback; it has just finally been seen by this mechanism.

This article is from the WeChat official account "BT Finance" (ID: btcjv1). Author: BT Finance. Republished by 36Kr with authorization.