The FIFA World Cup should have partnered with Xiaohongshu long ago.

On May 28th, China Media Group announced a strategic agreement with Xiaohongshu. The latter obtained the distribution rights and became an authorized broadcaster for this World Cup. So far, CCTV, Migu, and Xiaohongshu have formed the core broadcast matrix for this year's World Cup in the Chinese mainland.

This is the third consecutive World Cup that Migu has won the broadcast rights. Xiaohongshu has replaced Douyin from the previous session and become the new entrant. According to financial reports, Douyin participated in the competition for the distribution rights this round, but Xiaohongshu was more aggressive in terms of the bid price and operation plan and ultimately won.

According to Yicai, the direct reason for Douyin's withdrawal is that it was difficult to balance the accounts between the copyright cost and the expected revenue. The time difference of the matches made the viewing time inconvenient, and the rights of live broadcast and on - demand secondary creation could not be split, so the ROI did not meet the internal expectations.

Douyin's daily active users are already large enough that it doesn't need the World Cup to attract new users, while Xiaohongshu is the opposite. Xiaohongshu's daily active users have just exceeded 170 million, and the monthly active users have exceeded 400 million. Internally, it hopes to reach the goal of 200 million daily active users with the help of the World Cup. At this stage, the attention leverage effect of the World Cup is almost irreplaceable.

However, when Xiaohongshu takes on this challenge, it will face more complex challenges than Douyin did three years ago. Douyin had a mature short - video ecosystem, algorithm distribution capabilities, and live - broadcast infrastructure at that time, and the World Cup was more like icing on the cake.

Xiaohongshu has to accomplish three things simultaneously within a month: prove that it can handle the traffic, the users, and the brands.

01

Why can Xiaohongshu handle the World Cup?

After Douyin left the scene, the market generally worried about whether Xiaohongshu's live - broadcast capabilities could hold up. After all, this is a community that has long centered on graphic notes as its core product form. Xiaohongshu's response to this is hierarchical.

At the product level, it has launched interactive functions such as a World Cup exclusive channel, match predictions, fan cards, and fan circles, covering terminals such as the App, web version, and screen mirroring. At the content level, it has invited football insiders such as Fan Zhiyi and Xie Hui to participate in the commentary.

However, the intention of these actions is not to directly compete with Migu in "professional broadcasting". Migu has a mature live - broadcast technology system, operator channels, a precipitation of paid members, and a professional commentary lineup including Zhan Jun and Huang Jianxiang, which Xiaohongshu can hardly match in the short term.

Therefore, user reception has become the focus of Xiaohongshu's layout. For a long time, the proportion of male users on the platform has remained at about 30%. Expanding male users is a clear direction to break through the population ceiling. The World Cup happens to provide an efficient scenario to reach this group.

Xiaohongshu revealed that the number of football - interested users on the platform has exceeded 100 million, and the interactive discussion volume of football - related content has increased by more than 100% year - on - year in the past year.

Before winning the World Cup copyright, Xiaohongshu had systematically laid out sports content: in 2022, it signed well - known coaches such as Diego Simeone, José Mourinho, and Zinedine Zidane to join the platform; in 2024, it signed Kylian Mbappé as the spokesperson for the European Cup; in 2025, it successively obtained the copyrights of many events such as the German Super Cup, the Bundesliga, and the AFC U - 23 Asian Cup qualifiers. Connecting these actions together is to use football to reach a broader audience.

Different from platforms such as Tencent Video and iQiyi Sports, which focus on the professionalism of event broadcasting, Xiaohongshu has chosen the route of community vitality. On Xiaohongshu, football content is naturally intertwined with fashion, travel, food, and offline consumption.

After users search for match replays, they may then browse "outfits for watching games", "travel guides for the home - team cities", and "mid - night snack menus for watching games". This content chain is not easy to replicate for traditional broadcasting platforms.

The structural migration of audience behavior is also providing an opportunity for the community route. The "FIFA 2022 Qatar World Cup Audience Report" shows that nearly half of Chinese audiences watched the games in a fragmented way through short - videos and social media. More than 70% of the 2026 World Cup matches will kick off between 6 a.m. and 12 p.m. Beijing time, and the time difference will further promote fragmented consumption.

When "sitting down to watch a full - length live broadcast" is no longer the mainstream behavior, in the scenario of "swiping and chatting", a platform with a built - in discussion atmosphere is more likely to handle the traffic.

The challenge lies in user retention after the games. During the previous World Cup, Douyin's daily active users climbed to a peak of 700 million, but the activity of sports content declined after the games.

Xiaohongshu is trying to precipitate the discussion relationships during the games through social products such as "fan circles". At the same time, it has fully opened up brand cooperation in the event live - broadcast rooms for the first time in commercialization, allowing users to enter the consumption decision - making process during the game - watching and discussion.

Whether it can complete the behavior migration from "watching football" to "browsing the community" within a month is the key to determining the long - term value of this copyright investment.

02

The commercial imagination of the World Cup should not only focus on "live - streaming sales"

If the commercial accounts of the World Cup copyright are only calculated based on live - streaming sales and hard - advertising revenue, it is often difficult to make a profit.

During the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Douyin and Migu each invested more than 1 billion yuan in the copyright. According to industry judgments, Douyin's commercial revenue in that session failed to cover the cost.

In 2026, if the World Cup is regarded as an advertising inventory for accounting, it is indeed not cost - effective; but if it is regarded as a community asset for operation, the logic is completely different.

FIFA has set a revenue target of 13 billion US dollars for the 2023 - 2026 cycle, a growth of more than 70% compared with the previous cycle. Among them, the TV broadcast rights are expected to contribute about 3.925 billion US dollars, accounting for more than 40%. FIFA's high dependence on copyright revenue determines that the high - price strategy will not change in the short term.

Sponsors are increasingly bypassing traditional broadcasters and directly placing advertisements on social platforms. The structural migration of advertising budgets is squeezing the revenue space of broadcasters, and the traditional "traffic rent" model is facing challenges.

During the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the proportion of Chinese social media users watching the games accounted for 49.8% of the total participation. When nearly half of the attention shifted from large screens to short - videos and secondary creations, the monopoly power of the signal entry was diluted, and the needs of brands also changed. They are no longer satisfied with simple exposure during the games but pursue more accurate reach, a more complete conversion chain, and more quantifiable effect feedback.

This provides a differentiated commercial path for Xiaohongshu. The general closed - loop of traditional broadcasters is "copyright - traffic - advertising", while Xiaohongshu may build a chain of "copyright - content - community - consumption". The additional "community" and "consumption" links stretch the commercial dimension from "one - time placement" to "a cycle".

The consumption scenarios such as travel, food, fashion, and parties brought by the World Cup naturally fall into Xiaohongshu's lifestyle content ecosystem. Xiaohongshu has verified this content - to - consumption - decision chain when promoting trends such as camping and City walk in the past.

Among the rights obtained by Xiaohongshu, there is the copyright for secondary creation of short - videos, which is different from Migu, which focuses on high - definition live broadcasts and professional commentaries. Every topic such as the game results, player performances, famous scenes, and controversial penalties can stimulate a large amount of user discussion and spontaneous creation.

The community structure keeps these discussions on the platform, forming a precipitation of content assets. The 104 matches of this World Cup will last from June 11th to July 19th, a 39 - day schedule. Brands have the opportunity to build a full - cycle content marketing around the event, covering pre - event awareness building, in - event social communication and consumption conversion, and post - event review and communication, rather than just inserting advertisements during the live - broadcast breaks.

At the same time, it should be noted that Xiaohongshu still has room for improvement in its brand - service infrastructure. Compared with Douyin's mature advertising placement system, algorithm accuracy, and commercialization tool matrix, Xiaohongshu's brand - service ability is still in the construction period.

The high density of World Cup events and the high requirements for operational response speed are a real test of whether it can handle the complex needs of brands in the short term.

From a more macro perspective, the boundaries of World Cup commercialization are being redefined.

Traditional broadcasters have locked the upper limit of World Cup commercialization in the single dimension of "advertising revenue". CCTV obtained considerable advertising returns from the 2022 Qatar World Cup, but this was based on the premise that the event time was highly compatible with the schedules of Chinese audiences.

The time - difference conditions of the 2026 World Cup are completely different, which means that the ceiling of the traditional advertising model is further lowered.

However, from another perspective, the time difference actually magnifies the value of community platforms. When users wake up in the morning and find that a key match has ended, their first action is to go to social platforms to check the results, watch highlights, and read comments. When "watching live broadcasts" is no longer the mainstream behavior, "talking about the games" becomes the new traffic entry.

It's not just that Xiaohongshu needs the World Cup for growth. The World Cup also needs a community platform that can carry discussions and precipitate consumption decisions.

The real commercial imagination of a sports event copyright should not only focus on the "live - streaming sales" outlet. It should be a complete chain from content to community and then to consumption. In this chain, content provides the attention entry, the community provides user stickiness and consumption - decision scenarios, and consumption provides the commercial closed - loop.

The competition for the World Cup copyright is essentially a "competition of platform capabilities". In the past, it was about who could bid higher. Now, it's about who can stretch the value of the copyright from "traffic" to "consumption". In this new competitive dimension, the relationship between the World Cup and Xiaohongshu may be more compatible than the outside world imagines.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Business Side Glance", author: Bai Mo. Republished by 36Kr with authorization.