In the days when Tao's Law went viral, some people were quietly moving their money out.

In recent days, the WeChat Moments have been flooded with discussions about Tao's Law.

According to a report by People's Daily, He Tingbo, the president of Huawei's Semiconductor Business Department, delivered a keynote speech, proposing Tao's Law, which replaces "geometric scaling" with "time scaling". The official said that based on this law, 381 chips have been designed and mass - produced in six years. Suddenly, phrases like "overtaking on a new track", "bypassing the lithography machine", and "the spring of the semiconductor industry" filled the screen.

It's not that this story is extremely inspiring. It's another thing that almost no one mentioned in the same week, which was overshadowed by the cheers. Announcements from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges show that during the days when the narrative was at its hottest, the major shareholders of seven semiconductor listed companies in the A - share market collectively issued reduction announcements, with a total cash - out amount of up to 12.7 billion yuan.

On one side, there are fireworks all over the sky, while on the other side, someone is quietly moving out.

When the fireworks are at their brightest, a light goes out

Many people may say that it's quite common for shareholders to reduce their holdings and cash out, which is normal.

Looking at a single case, it is indeed normal. But the problem lies not in the act of "reducing holdings" itself, but in the time when it occurs.

Putting the two pictures side by side, on one hand, Tao's Law is all over the place, the semiconductor - related indexes have been rising all the way in the early stage, and the stock prices of many individual stocks have just reached new historical highs, with the sentiment approaching a boiling point; on the other hand, in the same week, the major shareholders of seven companies intensively reduced their holdings, with a maximum cash - out amount of 12.7 billion yuan, and some of the reductions happened to be near the historical highs of the stock prices.

12.7 billion yuan is not an occasional operation of a single shareholder, but a collective action of multiple companies in a sector within the same time window. When a group of people who know their own companies best choose to sell at the most exciting moment outside, this coincidence is worth taking a second look.

Those watching the fireworks and those moving out are looking at different things

To understand this coincidence, we need to distinguish two things: the "big market" of a track and the "own capabilities" of a company.

The big market is the general rise brought about by the grand narrative like "the semiconductor industry is taking off". It is sentiment, imagination, and that fireworks show. A company's own capabilities are its real - deal orders, gross profit, and capacity utilization, and whether it can make money this year.

What Tao's Law ignites is the former fireworks show. It tells the roadmap for the entire Chinese chip industry in the next decade. However, when major shareholders reduce their holdings, they often focus on the latter. They know better than anyone whether their company's financial statements this year can justify the current stock price.

When the story runs far ahead of the financial statements, the first ones to notice this gap are not us who are scrolling through the WeChat Moments, but those who are sitting in the company looking at the real ledgers. The story can draw a big pie for the next decade, but reducing holdings is a vote with real money. When an insider chooses to leave at a high position, it is actually quietly saying that based on the information in his hand, the current price has overdrawn his judgment of the company.

A judgment worth remembering: When the story is at its loudest, see who is moving out

This phenomenon is called "fireworks and moving out".

The judgment logic is simple. When the story of a track uses the most advanced words like "bypass everything", "rewrite the rules", and "golden age", and at the same time, there is a concentrated peak of insiders' share - reduction in the core companies of this track, the combination of these two things is often a strong signal of a phased top.

Its advantage is that ordinary people don't need to understand chips or know how to calculate valuations. They just need to make two observations: First, is the story of this track in the market being told to the most exaggerated extent? Second, check the exchange announcements to see whether the major shareholders and executives of the most core companies in this track are increasing or reducing their holdings.

Two pictures can help ordinary people remember it. One is like watching fireworks: at the most gorgeous moment of the fireworks, everyone is looking up and shouting how beautiful it is, but no one notices that the person setting off the fireworks has started to pack up and get ready to leave. The other is like a card table: the person who shouts the loudest and encourages you to bet more may not have good cards; the one who really holds the trump cards often keeps silent and takes back the chips and leaves when the time is right.

One thing to note in advance

The following is a reasoning and for reference only.

There are many reasons for shareholders to reduce their holdings, such as personal capital needs, the expiration of early - stage funds, and improving living conditions. It doesn't necessarily mean they are bearish on the company. It is not rigorous to directly equate "reducing holdings" with "being bearish". So this article doesn't name any company, and it's not saying that any company is not good. What the market is reminding is a structural phenomenon: when the collective excitement of a sector meets the collective share - reduction, for ordinary people, it's time to calm down, not to chase the high price.

If you are about to rush in

If you have been excited by the popularity of Tao's Law in recent days and are considering whether to invest, this signal at least reminds you of three things.

First, separate the "industry prospects" from "your purchase price". The long - term prospects of the semiconductor industry and whether you can make money by buying at today's price are two different things. The story is about the former, while your cost is about the latter.

Second, develop the habit of checking share - reduction announcements. The more a sector rises and the louder the story is, the more you need to see what the people who know it best are doing. Increasing and reducing holdings are the rare "words spoken with real money" in the market.

Third, be more cautious about the more inspiring stories. The more a narrative makes you feel that "missing it means missing an era", the more vigilant you should be, because such stories are most likely to be used to accompany those who take over at a high position.

Who are the fireworks for?

Is Tao's Law an amazing exploration? It's very likely. Does the Chinese semiconductor industry need such a long - term roadmap? Of course. This article doesn't deny either of these two things.

However, the value of the technology story and the profit or loss of your investment at a specific price are never the same thing.

When the fireworks are at their brightest, remember to take a look at the person who is quietly moving out. He understands the real value of this excitement better than the cheers on the screen.

So next time, when a story is at its loudest and everyone is looking up and cheering, calm down for a moment and ask yourself: Are these fireworks for the industry or for me who is about to pay?

This judgment is worth remembering. Forward it to the friend who has been talking to you about "whether to chase the semiconductor industry" recently.

This article is only for information sharing and industry analysis, and does not constitute any investment advice, investment analysis opinion, or trading invitation. The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. Any investment decision made based on the content of this article, the risk and profit or loss shall be borne by the investor himself, and the author and the publishing platform shall not bear any legal liability. The content marked as "reasoning" is the author's logical deduction based on public information and does not represent the official position.

This article is from the WeChat official account "BT Finance" (ID: btcjv1), written by Shuyan, and published by 36Kr with authorization.