The city with the largest population increase has changed.

The city with the largest population increase in 2025 has emerged.

The "Statistical Bulletin of the National Economic and Social Development of Shenzhen in 2025" recently released shows that at the end of 2025, the permanent population of Shenzhen was 18.2485 million, an increase of 0.259 million compared with the end of the previous year.

This figure is quite close to the previous predictions of around 0.3 million. Meanwhile, it has almost no suspense to become the city with the largest population increase in the country in 2025.

It is worth noting that among the top ten cities with the largest population increase in 2025, the top three are all occupied by cities in Guangdong (Shenzhen with an increase of 0.259 million, Dongguan with 0.2296 million, and Guangzhou with 0.123 million), making Guangdong the biggest winner in terms of population.

If we expand the scope, Foshan (about 0.093 million) and Huizhou (0.0762 million) in the Pearl River Delta also rank among the top in the country. This is a rare "across - the - board upward" pattern in the province and even in the whole country.

However, at the same time, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi, which are adjacent to Guangdong, are among the provinces with the most prominent population outflows at present.

In 2025, the permanent population of Hunan decreased by 0.47 million, Jiangxi by 0.28 million, and Guangxi by 0.24 million. The total net outflow of the three provinces was nearly 1 million, almost offsetting the increase of 0.79 million in Guangdong.

There is a profound meaning behind this.

01

From various factors such as the city's level, industrial strength, and inclusiveness, it is not surprising that Shenzhen has become the city with the largest population increase.

In fact, from 2010 to 2020, Shenzhen ranked first in the country with a population increase of over 7 million. This increase is equivalent to the total population of a medium - sized prefecture - level city.

In the five years since the 7th National Population Census, the cities with the largest population increase in the country are as follows: 2021: Chengdu (0.245 million); 2022: Changsha (0.181 million); 2023: Hefei (0.219 million); 2024: Guiyang (0.1996 million); 2025: Shenzhen (0.259 million)

Among them, Shenzhen's increase in 2025 also set a record for the largest annual population increase of Chinese cities after the 7th National Population Census.

At the same time, it is also the first time in five years that a non - provincial - capital city has appeared as the city with the largest population increase in recent years.

Moreover, in addition to Shenzhen, non - provincial - capital cities such as Dongguan, Foshan, and Qingdao have also entered the top ten in annual population increase, changing the previous list pattern of "provincial - capital cities dominating".

Does this mean that the attractiveness of provincial - capital cities has declined?

Probably not. Judging from the situation in recent years, provincial - capital cities still rank high in terms of population increase.

The non - provincial - capital cities in the top ten cities this year are mainly concentrated in provinces with "dual centers" such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Greater Bay Area, and Shandong.

This further confirms what we have said in the past, the population resilience of a region depends to a large extent on whether there are multiple growth poles with comparable levels and complementary industries within it.

To put it simply, an important reason for Guangdong's prominent performance in population increase is that the overall pattern within the region shows greater resilience.

In 2025, the permanent population of Shandong decreased by 0.37 million, but the combined increase of Jinan and Qingdao exceeded 0.17 million, indicating that the "dual - center" pattern still has strong population attractiveness.

Of course, for most regions, the continuous increase in the population of provincial - capital cities and central cities does not mean that the population trend of the province can be fundamentally changed.

This will be especially obvious for large - population provinces such as Henan, Sichuan, Shandong, and Hunan.

Although the population growth of cities like Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Changsha, and Hefei is remarkable, the permanent population of the whole province is decreasing, and the structural "funnel effect" is inevitable.

02

It is worth noting that the prominent population vitality in Guangdong is not only due to its external population attractiveness but also related to its population structure.

Currently, Guangdong is one of the few coastal provinces with an aging population lower than the national average.

The data in 2025 shows that the proportion of people aged 65 and above in Guangdong is only 10.3%, while the national average is 15.9%. This means that for every 100 people in Guangdong, there are 5 more working - age people than the national average, which is a very valuable demographic dividend.

It can be said that in terms of demographic dividend, Guangdong still has advantages in both natural growth and mechanical growth. Specifically, in 2025, the number of births in Guangdong reached 1.003 million, accounting for about 12.7% of the total national births, making it the only province in the country with over one million births for six consecutive years.

This determines that the population growth trend will continue for some time. For this reason, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are most likely to become the next cities with a population of 20 million. Currently, the permanent population of Shenzhen is 18.25 million and that of Guangzhou is 19.1 million. At an average annual growth rate of 0.1 - 0.2 million, the two cities are expected to exceed 20 million in ten years.

By then, there will be six cities with a population of 20 million in China, namely Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, with half from the Chengdu - Chongqing area and half from Guangdong.

Of course, it is worth observing whether the rankings of Beijing, Chengdu, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou will change. At the same time, it should be noted that Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi around Guangdong are also representatives of provinces with the most prominent population outflows at present.

In fact, among the migrant population in Guangdong, those from Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi rank high. Some people may say that this situation has existed in the past and is not a new phenomenon. However, as the total population enters the "stock" stage and the population structure changes, the population return situation that existed in many provinces in the past will also slow down.

That is to say, this "funnel effect" will be more prominent in the future.

Take Hunan as an example. The permanent population of Changsha increased by about 0.1 million in 2025, but the total population of the province decreased by 0.47 million, which means that the other prefectures and cities in the province lost nearly 0.4 million people in total.

03

Of course, although Guangdong's siphoning effect on surrounding provinces is significant, it is not the only population agglomeration high - ground.

For the Yangtze River Delta, although the aging degree is relatively high and the internal population renewal vitality is not so strong, its siphoning ability for the migrant population is still prominent.

Basically, in the future, in addition to the Greater Bay Area, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region, the only inland high - grounds are the Chengdu - Chongqing area, the major provincial - capital cities in central China (Wuhan, Changsha, Hefei, Zhengzhou), and "dual - center" cities like Qingdao and Jinan.

However, it should be noted that the growth rate of these high - grounds is narrowing. The situation of an annual increase of hundreds of thousands in the past will be less and less common.

This is a reality that must be faced in the new stage.

Especially for provinces with large population outflows, public services, industries, infrastructure, and administrative divisions must take into account the long - term population development trend and make new adaptive adjustments.

How to maintain population vitality? From the perspective of Guangdong, in addition to the fundamental factors of the industry, the most important inspiration may be openness and inclusiveness.

In a word, the more inclusive a place is and the farther it is from the thinking inertia of administrative dominance, the lower the entry threshold for the migrant population will be, and the more sustainable the attractiveness in the population stock competition will be.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Western City Affairs", written by Western Jun, and is published by 36Kr with authorization.