Hong Kong stocks face a wave of RMB 1 trillion in share unlockings head-on
In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market topped the world with HK$286.9 billion in new - share fundraising. In 2026, the IPO (Initial Public Offering) of the Hong Kong stock market still maintained strong momentum. According to Wind data, as of May 20, the number of IPO projects in the Hong Kong stock market this year reached 56, doubling the 28 in the same period of 2025; the total fundraising reached RMB 144.223 billion, a year - on - year increase of 97.8%. In addition, there are more than 400 enterprises queuing up for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and it is expected that the listing wave will continue.
On the other side of the continuous prosperity of Hong Kong stock IPOs is the pressure of restricted - share lifting: the lock - up periods of 6 to 12 months for cornerstone investors and Pre - IPO shareholders of technology and biomedical enterprises that went public intensively in 2025 will expire successively in 2026. According to the calculation of SPDB International, the total market value of restricted - share lifting for the whole year is about HK$1.7 trillion, nearly tripling the HK$0.6 trillion in 2025, reaching a peak in recent years, which is equivalent to about ten times the average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market; there are 6 months in the whole year with a restricted - share lifting scale of more than HK$100 billion, among which the restricted - share lifting scale in September is as high as HK$530 billion, accounting for about one - third of the whole year.
Can the Hong Kong stock market pass through smoothly under the pressure of one - trillion - dollar restricted - share lifting? The views of the interviewed institutions vary. Zhao Hongmei, the investment director of Galaxy Securities, said bluntly that in the context of tight liquidity, one - trillion - dollar restricted - share lifting means a huge potential selling pressure, which will cause capital diversion and a decline in the trading volume of some individual stocks. Especially, small - cap stocks with a market value of less than HK$10 billion, which are not included in the index or the Hong Kong Stock Connect, are most likely to be affected.
Many investment bankers also believe that incremental funds are flowing back, and some foreign - funded institutions are re - examining the Chinese market. Although they give priority to blue - chip stocks, they still provide liquidity support; refinancing has not shrunk either. In the first five months of 2026, placement financing reached US$12.5 billion, and the pace was postponed to May due to geopolitical disturbances in March.
"If there is still an expectation of market rise in the next 3 - 6 months, the shareholders whose restricted shares have been lifted will not sell off in a concentrated manner but will reduce their holdings at different times. Historically, sell - offs mostly occurred in periods of market downturn and capital shortage, and the current environment is significantly different." A Hong Kong stock investment banker told Caijing.
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How much pressure does the lifting of restricted shares in the Hong Kong stock market bring?
In 2025, the IPO financing amount of the Hong Kong stock market increased by 225.9% year - on - year, and a large number of leading companies in technology manufacturing, biomedicine, and the digital economy were listed on the main board. According to the rules of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the lock - up period for cornerstone investors is usually 6 months, and that for controlling shareholders and major shareholders is mostly 6 to 12 months. For companies listed in the first half of 2025, the restricted shares will be released intensively from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2026; the "giants" listed in the second half of 2025 will be the main force for restricted - share lifting in the third and fourth quarters.
Specifically, a large - scale restricted - share lifting will occur in the Hong Kong stock market in July, with MINIMAX and Zhipu leading in terms of the scale. Based on the closing price on May 20, the market values corresponding to the restricted shares of the two companies will exceed HK$90 billion and HK$20 billion respectively.
The largest single restricted - share lifting in the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year comes from Zijin Gold International, and the restricted - share lifting is scheduled for September 30. Jinshan (Hong Kong) International Mining and Zijin Mining jointly hold 2.275 billion shares of it, and the market value corresponding to this restricted - share lifting exceeds HK$300 billion. Zhang Yidong, the head of the stock research department of Haitong International, pointed out that all the restricted shares to be lifted this time belong to the Zijin - affiliated shareholders, and the overall actual pressure of share - reduction expectation is limited.
The research report of SPDB International shows that September will be the "epicenter" of restricted - share lifting in the Hong Kong stock market, with the expected monthly restricted - share lifting market value reaching as high as HK$530.9 billion, accounting for 32.6% of the whole year. This scale even exceeds the total IPO fundraising in 2025, which is extremely rare in the history of the Hong Kong stock market. In addition, from March to April 2026, there will be intensive restricted - share lifting in the information technology and biomedicine sectors, with more than HK$100 billion each month, forming a double - peak pressure with the peak in September. In terms of sectors, information technology, optional consumption, and healthcare are the three core areas, accounting for more than 60%. Some leading financial and resource companies also have large - scale restricted - share lifting, with the market value of restricted - share lifting of many leading companies exceeding HK$100 billion, and the proportion of restricted shares to be lifted of some enterprises exceeding 50% of the total share capital, almost doubling the floating shares.
Lai Yeye, the chief strategy analyst of SPDB International, found through statistics on 766 newly - listed Hong Kong stock companies with regular lock - up periods from 2018 to 2025 that the three months before and after the restricted - share lifting are the periods when the stock price pressure is most concentrated, and the stock price performance of 58% of the sample companies lags behind the Hang Seng Index. She defined the periods when the monthly restricted - share lifting market value exceeded HK$50 billion since 2015 as the restricted - share lifting peaks. In 11 samples, the average performance of the Hang Seng Index in the month of restricted - share lifting was a 0.6% decline, and the probability of decline in the month of restricted - share lifting was 64%, higher than that in the months before and after.
"The pressure of restricted - share lifting is not the only factor determining the market trend, and it is also affected by multiple factors such as liquidity, market sentiment, fundamentals, and shareholders' behavior patterns." Lai Yeye emphasized. For example, in June 2025, the restricted - share lifting scale reached HK$123.5 billion. Due to the liquidity injection by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the decline in the Hong Kong dollar interest rate, and the net inflow of south - bound funds and foreign capital, the Hang Seng Index recorded positive returns in that month and the months before and after; while in December of the same year, with a similar restricted - share lifting scale, the market performance was weak due to the tightening of the year - end capital.
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How to deal with the impact of restricted - share lifting?
How big is the actual impact of the restricted - share lifting wave on the market?
Zhang Yidong, the chief economist of Haitong International, believes that the macro - fundamentals and the global liquidity environment are still the core factors determining the trend of the Hong Kong stock market. The restricted - share lifting is more of a structural disturbance rather than a systematic risk. Zhang Yidong analyzed that in the second half of 2026, based on the US mid - term elections and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the impact of the restricted - share lifting peak in the Hong Kong stock market will be "alarming but not dangerous". The Hang Seng Index will not experience a systematic decline during the restricted - share lifting window period, but will show the characteristics of "amplified fluctuations before the restricted - share lifting and stabilization after the restricted - share lifting". In terms of industry structure, the intensive restricted - share lifting period may amplify the periodic fluctuations in the information technology, optional consumption, and healthcare sectors.
China Merchants Securities (HK) is more cautious, believing that the negative impact of restricted - share lifting on the Hong Kong stock market is more persistent: individual stocks have fallen in advance before the restricted - share lifting, and the cumulative excess return has continued to decline after the restricted - share lifting; at the overall market level, the restricted - share lifting scale is significantly negatively correlated with the Hang Seng Index's return rate, and the new floating supply will suppress liquidity and risk appetite.
Zhao Hongmei believes that the liquidity pressure in the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year is very high. The one - trillion - level restricted - share lifting and the intensive IPOs form a "double pressure" on the market funds. Although the south - bound funds are a key "stabilizer", they are difficult to fully cover the entire capital gap. "The overall market will present a pattern of 'index under pressure and increasing differentiation among individual stocks'. The liquidity pressure on small - and medium - cap stocks is particularly prominent, and many newly - listed stocks have had zero daily trading volume within less than half a year after listing. In terms of the nature of risks, this round of impact is mainly structural, highly concentrated in AI and technology growth stocks that have risen too much, have high valuations, and have a weak profit foundation, while leading companies with solid fundamentals and high - dividend assets are relatively less affected."
After analyzing the sectors, SPDB International believes that in sectors such as telecommunications and software services, the expectation of restricted - share lifting is often digested by the market in advance, and the stock price may stabilize and rebound after the restricted - share lifting; while sectors such as semiconductors and automobiles belong to the "lagged - impact type of restricted - share lifting", and the selling pressure will be significantly released after the restricted - share lifting. From the perspective of market value, small - cap stocks are most significantly affected and underperform medium - and large - cap stocks before and after the restricted - share lifting; the impact on medium - cap stocks is relatively mild; large - cap stocks face greater selling pressure before the restricted - share lifting, but will quickly stabilize after the "bad news is out". SPDB International calculated that the restricted - share lifting scale in September 2026 is equivalent to 31% of the total market value and 113% of the floating market value of relevant companies.
Facing the restricted - share lifting wave, institutions have provided a trading strategy framework. SPDB International believes that from the perspective of risk avoidance, one should avoid targets with a high proportion of restricted - share lifting, high valuations, and low liquidity, focus on leading companies with solid fundamentals, stable shareholder structures, and abundant cash flows, grasp the risk - avoidance rhythm during key windows such as September, and avoid chasing high prices before the restricted - share lifting.
China Merchants Securities (HK) suggests moderately reducing positions during the subscription period of large - scale IPOs, avoiding sectors where funds may be diverted, and paying attention to the short - term repair opportunities brought by the return of funds after the subscription ends. In the long - term, there is no need to change the core allocation due to the IPO expansion. One should pay more attention to companies with high - quality fundamentals and sustainable performance logic and cross the emotional cycle of the "supply shock". Looking for "mis - killed" structural opportunities after the release of liquidity pressure may be a more practical choice.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Reading with a Unique Perspective" (ID: dushuyizhi007), author: Cheng Mengqi, editors: Guo Nan and Lu Ling. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.