Vanke's most valuable asset has come to light.
Author | Wang Hanyu
Editor | Zhang Fan
From Wang Shi's refutation of the rumor of "being arrested" to continuous losses and streamlining in the first quarter of this year, and the plan to transfer the equity of Huanshan Group for 3.27 billion yuan, Vanke, entering 2026, still finds itself deeply mired in the whirlpool of public opinion.
Against the backdrop of continuous turmoil, the rumor of GLP's second attempt at a Hong Kong IPO is indeed good news for Vanke at present.
Previously, according to multiple media reports citing sources, GLP, a global logistics and new infrastructure giant, plans to submit a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as the second quarter of this year. The target fundraising amount for this IPO is no less than $1 billion, and the company's target valuation is approximately $20 billion.
Although GLP officially declined to comment on the listing rumor, if it successfully lists on the Stock Exchange, on the one hand, GLP can reward its investors; on the other hand, Vanke, which has been striving to resolve risks, can also use this "exit window" to relieve its financial pressure or obtain new valuation support.
Actually, as of May 11, Vanke's total market value of A+H shares is approximately 46 billion yuan, equivalent to about $6.7 billion. Based on GLP's target valuation of $20 billion, the value of Vanke's equity is approximately $4.28 billion, accounting for 63.9% of its total market value.
The "Tree Planted 8 Years Ago"
Looking back on the relationship between Vanke and GLP, their cooperation at the capital level began when GLP delisted from the Singapore capital market in the previous round.
In the privatization acquisition in 2017, Vanke led a consortium including Hopu Investment and Hillhouse Capital to complete the privatization acquisition of GLP for approximately 79 billion yuan. Among them, Vanke contributed approximately 16.9 - 17 billion yuan and obtained a 21.4% equity stake.
Although there have been several reports since 2024 that Vanke was in talks with potential buyers such as Yuehai Holdings to sell its 21.4% equity stake in GLP due to liquidity pressure, there has been no official update on this sale as of now.
Considering Vanke's several attempts to sell its equity in GLP in previous years and the operating pressure it has faced in recent years, this "tree planted 8 years ago" has become a key asset for Vanke to "enjoy the shade" later. If GLP's IPO materializes, it will provide Vanke with an "exit window", equity liquidity, and a significant boost in valuation.
Based on GLP's target valuation of $20 billion, the value of Vanke's shares is approximately $4.28 billion. Analyses by multiple institutions also show that the market generally expects GLP's valuation range upon listing to be between $25 billion and $30 billion. Thus, the value of Vanke's shares is expected to reach between $5.35 billion and $6.42 billion, which is almost equivalent to Vanke's current total market value of A+H shares.
The Value of GLP's Equity Outweighs Vanke's Traditional Core Assets
The traditional core assets of real - estate development companies mainly include land reserves and properties for sale. Comparing the land reserves and properties disclosed in Vanke's 2025 annual report, the valuation and monetization potential of GLP's equity seem to have surpassed Vanke's own core assets.
As of the end of 2025, the book value of Vanke's products to be developed, i.e., land, is 77.88 billion yuan, and the value of properties under construction, i.e., off - plan properties, is 178.82 billion yuan. The total value of land and off - plan properties under construction is approximately 256.7 billion yuan.
Generally, it takes a 2 - 3 - year development cycle for land to be converted into mature properties for sale. It also faces market fluctuations and impairment pressure. For example, in 2025, Vanke newly accrued a provision for inventory impairment of 20.826 billion yuan.
Meanwhile, as of the end of 2025, the book value of Vanke's completed developed products, i.e., properties for sale, is approximately 114.45 billion yuan. According to a report released by the E - house Research Institute in November last year, the inventory - to - sales ratio of newly built commercial residential properties in 100 cities across the country is 27.4 months. Vanke's current inventory of completed properties still faces pressure in terms of monetization efficiency.
In contrast, as of September 30, 2025, GLP's global asset management scale is approximately $80 billion, and its net total assets are approximately $20 billion. According to its disclosed 2023 annual performance announcement and balance sheet, GLP's total asset book value at that time was approximately 176.2 billion yuan.
In terms of monetization efficiency, Vanke's 21.4% equity stake in GLP can be monetized on the secondary market within 1 - 2 trading days after the lock - up period expires, without incurring development and sales costs. In terms of growth rate, from 2021 to 2023, GLP's compound annual growth rate of total assets was approximately 8.7%, which also exceeds the growth rate of real - estate companies' investment in land acquisition today.
In addition, compared with Vanke's current total market value, the latest total market value of Vanke's A+H shares is approximately 46 billion yuan, equivalent to about $6.7 billion. Based on GLP's target valuation of $20 billion, the value of Vanke's equity stake is approximately $4.28 billion, equivalent to approximately 29.3 billion yuan, representing a 72.4% increase over the investment cost of 17 billion yuan.
GLP's Premium and Vanke's Returns
Compared with the traditional "logistics real - estate developer" model, GLP's future growth potential lies in the ecological synergy of "logistics + data centers + new energy" and its asset management scale of $80 billion.
Public information shows that as of September 30, 2025, GLP's global asset management scale is approximately $80 billion, and its net total assets are approximately $20 billion. It has established cooperative relationships with more than 140 institutional investors globally. In China, it operates approximately 450 industrial infrastructure facilities such as logistics warehouses and R & D centers in 70 regional markets, with an operating area of over 40 million square meters, a computing power center IT load of 1400 megawatts, and a new energy development scale of over 2 gigawatts.
As an emerging business that plays the role of the second growth curve, official data shows that in 2025, GLP's annual revenue from its computing power center business increased by 32% year - on - year, and the delivered IT load exceeded 420 megawatts.
This means that high - growth and high - margin emerging businesses are expected to drive GLP's valuation to shift from "logistics real estate" to "technology + new energy".
Meanwhile, GLP mainly operates through the "development - operation - securitization - redevelopment" model. This kind of asset - light model is usually more likely to obtain a valuation premium in the secondary market.
Taking the operation of the CICC GLP REIT issued in the Chinese mainland as an example, the distribution rate of this fund, calculated based on the market value at the end of each year, has remained above 5% for three consecutive years from 2023 to 2025, performing well among the 11 listed warehousing and logistics REITs. With the further expansion of the mainland's public REITs market in the future, more properties are expected to be securitized, enhancing asset liquidity and valuation.
Currently, the price - to - earnings ratio corresponding to GLP's target valuation of $20 billion is approximately 8.5 times, which is in line with the industry average, indicating a reasonable valuation.
However, for Vanke itself, the current GLP IPO is only a market rumor. There are uncertainties regarding the time of submitting the listing application, the financing scale, and whether the listing will be successful. At the same time, fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market or cyclical adjustments in the logistics industry may also lead to a shrinkage of the equity value. More importantly, the layout of self - owned logistics by companies such as Amazon and JD.com also brings competitive pressure to this global logistics real - estate giant.
However, regardless of how the industry competition pattern changes and whether GLP can successfully complete its IPO, it is the most certain high - value asset for Vanke, which is currently in the critical period of risk resolution.
Last year, Vanke reported a net loss attributable to the parent company of 88.556 billion yuan, with total assets of approximately 1 trillion yuan, total liabilities of approximately 784.76 billion yuan, and a net debt - to - equity ratio of 123.48%. The interest - bearing debt due within one year amounts to 160.56 billion yuan. The equity in GLP is not only a stable source of dividends but also a high - quality liquid reserve that can be quickly monetized. Whether the IPO materializes or not, it will become Vanke's "most valuable" asset for optimizing its asset structure and relieving debt pressure.
*Disclaimer:
The content of this article only represents the author's views.
The market is risky, and investment should be made with caution. In any case, the information in this article or the opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice to anyone. Before making an investment decision, if necessary, investors must consult professionals and make decisions carefully. We have no intention of providing underwriting services or any services that require specific qualifications or licenses to engage in for the trading parties.
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