Moutai demands "efficiency" from distributors

Author | Xie Yunzi

Editor |  Zhang Fan 

On the evening of April 16th, Kweichow Moutai released its financial report data for 2025. Its revenue reached 172.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 82.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.53%. This is the first "double decline" of Moutai since its listing in 2001, thus ending the continuous positive growth record of the previous two decades.

Affected by this, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai once fell below the 1,400 yuan mark at the opening of the next day, and finally closed down 3.8%, with the market value evaporating nearly 70 billion yuan in a single day.

By simply analyzing the financial report, the company's core product, "Feitian Moutai", managed to stabilize its market share. In the previous year, the revenue of Moutai liquor was 146.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.39%.

The series of wines, such as Moutai Prince Wine and Moutai 1935, which were once highly anticipated and regarded as the "second growth curve", performed poorly. In 2025, the total revenue of the "series of wines" products of the Moutai Group was 22.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.76%.

Looking specifically at the fourth quarter, which "significantly fell short of market expectations". During the reporting period, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Kweichow Moutai was only 17.693 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.3%. The general view of institutional analysis is that this is the result of the group's "controlling quantity to maintain price" - that is, Moutai is actively clearing inventory to ensure a more stable market-oriented reform in 2026.

However, whether it is active or passive, the development logic of the current liquor market has changed. An obvious fact is that even for Kweichow Moutai, the era of easy high growth is over.

Charted by 36Kr based on Wind data

Price Increase and Regaining Pricing Power

Before issuing this annual report with "double decline", Moutai just announced a price increase. Since March 31st, the ex-factory price of the "53-degree, 500-milliliter" Feitian Moutai (hereinafter referred to as Feitian Moutai) has been raised from 1,169 yuan per bottle to 1,269 yuan, and the retail price in the self-operated system has been adjusted from 1,499 yuan per bottle to 1,539 yuan. 

This means that the "1,499 era" of Feitian Moutai, which has lasted for 8 years, has come to an end, and the direct bearers of the price increase are Moutai's dealers and retailers.

Table made by 36Kr based on public information

In the past, due to the scarcity of Moutai, its products formed a stable profit margin in the circulation link.

Dealers usually obtain goods from the company at the ex-factory price and with a certain amount of "allocated goods" (matching series of wines), and then resell them to small dealers or retailers at a relatively high "market wholesale price". The increasing prices at each level make consumers finally buy core products such as Feitian Moutai at a price much higher than the official guidance price.

The worst impact of excessive "financialization" on the brand is that the terminal price of the product gets out of control, and there has even been a situation where the price keeps rising despite regulation.

In 2018, the Moutai Group clearly stated that dealers should not increase prices for sales, hoard goods, or drive up prices, and should not cooperate with "scalpers" to sell counterfeit products. By 2019, the Moutai Group increased the intensity of channel adjustment. In that year, it cut more than 600 dealers across the country, and the number of "Moutai liquor" dealers has since stabilized at around 2,100.

Table made by 36Kr based on financial report data

While rectifying the dealer system, Moutai also began to vigorously develop direct sales channels.

In 2022, the company's official self-operated channel, "i Moutai", was launched, and the power of market pricing gradually shifted from large dealers back to the group.

The financial report shows that from 2022 to 2025, the revenue contributed by "i Moutai" increased from 11.883 billion yuan to 13.031 billion yuan. In 2025, the revenue of the company's direct sales channels, including "i Moutai", accounted for more than 50%, reaching 84.54 billion yuan, exceeding the wholesale agency channels for the first time.

The change in the wholesale price can intuitively reflect the trajectory of profit transfer.

"Blue Shark Consumption" once reported that the "single-bottle wholesale price" of Feitian Moutai once exceeded 3,000 yuan in 2024, and the profit per bottle for dealers was close to 2,000 yuan. On December 12, 2025, the single-bottle wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was 1,485 yuan, and the wholesale price per bottle in the original box was 1,495 yuan, breaking through the official guidance price for the first time.

Although the wholesale price of Moutai has rebounded to a certain extent after this price increase, the profit margin given to the circulation channel is still in the range of 300 yuan. And since January this year, Feitian Moutai has been sold regularly on "i Moutai". In the context of weak consumption and rising labor and operating costs, Moutai's dealers only make a small profit or even a small loss.

"Moutai Is Still Moutai"

So, what happens after regaining the market pricing power?

Judging from the performance of the financial report, the pressure facing Moutai is still considerable.

Data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association shows that in 2025, the average inventory turnover days in the liquor industry reached 900 days, and 58.1% of dealers reported a continuous increase in inventory. As the leading enterprise, Moutai has naturally hoarded a large number of non-standard products. The change in the cash flow from operating activities is mainly due to the decrease in the deposits of the group company's member units absorbed by Moutai Financial Company and the increase in interbank deposits that cannot be withdrawn at any time. Actually, this passage is a bit hard to understand. I hope for more guidance and communication in the future.

In the fourth quarter of last year, while protecting the profits of dealers, Moutai's management clearly put forward the idea of "not only focusing on indicators", actively stopped pressing goods to the channels, and at the same time slowed down the payment collection rhythm of dealers.

From this perspective, Moutai is actively squeezing out market bubbles at the cost of sacrificing short-term interests. However, the sluggish channel sales are still reflected in the company's most core cash flow. In 2025, the cash flow from operating activities of Kweichow Moutai decreased by 33.46% year-on-year, from 92.464 billion yuan to 61.522 billion yuan; the inventory during the same period was 61.427 billion yuan, and the inventory turnover days increased to 1,399.15 days.

However, the financial report also explains that the change in the cash flow from operating activities is mainly due to the decrease in the deposits of the group company's member units absorbed by Moutai Financial Company and the increase in interbank deposits that cannot be withdrawn at any time.

Table made by 36Kr based on Wind data

At the same time, Moutai's sales expenses also increased significantly by 28.6%, reaching 7.253 billion yuan. The financial report explains that a large amount of these expenses were invested in channel construction and digital transformation, which inevitably affects the company's overall profit level.

In addition, in the secondary market, Moutai's price-earnings ratio is also at a historical low. Since the beginning of 2026, its PE (TTM) has always fluctuated around 21 times.

Screenshot from Wind

Regarding whether the high growth of companies representing the young customer group is sustainable, Moutai once launched an ice cream business in a high-profile way for market education. However, last year, the Moutai Ice Cream Division was disbanded. The official response was that "the ice cream business has achieved the goal of cultivating young consumer groups, and this is a strategic contraction at this stage."

The underlying implication behind this seems to be that it is not easy to "entice" young people to buy Moutai.

How the Chinese liquor market can replicate the youth-oriented path of Western spirits such as whiskey and vodka is an old topic. For Kweichow Moutai, how to transform from the lofty "national liquor" to a high-end consumer brand that is closer to consumers' lives and more acceptable to the young group requires a reshaping from brand narrative to consumer resonance.

Screenshot from the i Moutai APP

But "Moutai is still Moutai".

Not long ago, the famous investor Duan Yongping commented on Moutai's 2025 financial report performance in this way. Like most investment institutions, Duan Yongping also believes that Kweichow Moutai's core competitiveness and ability to return to shareholders are stable.

Interestingly, while enjoying the generous dividends of Moutai, Duan Yongping also "unexpectedly" became a "fan" of Pop Mart.

In the liquor industry, under the Matthew effect, there will definitely be a situation where "the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker". Moutai's "industry monopoly" is not just a product of a special era. The scarcity of its products comes not only from the "irreplaceable" core producing area in Maotai Town, but also from the special production process and the production capacity limitation of "five-year base liquor aging".

All these have enabled Moutai to fully capture the consumer mentality of being "the highest representative of Chinese liquor", and the short-term consumer demand will not fluctuate greatly. According to official sources, in the first quarter of 2026, Moutai's sales exceeded expectations, and the ordinary Moutai was in short supply.

After regaining the pricing power, Moutai's channel efficiency will become higher, but in the context of the industry reaching its peak and the difficulty in youth orientation, it is also difficult to "become bigger". The double decline in performance in 2025 may become a footnote in the company's development history.

*Disclaimer:  

The content of this article only represents the author's views.  

The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. In any case, the information in this article or the opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice to anyone. Before making an investment decision, if necessary, investors must consult professionals and make careful decisions. We have no intention of providing underwriting services or any services that require specific qualifications or licenses for the trading parties.  

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This article is from the WeChat official account "36Kr Finance", author: Xie Yunzi, Zhang Fan. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.