China leads the way in perovskite, and even Elon Musk has set his sights on this market.

In the first quarter of 2026, Elon Musk frequently appeared in the vision of China's photovoltaic industry chain and became a key variable in the transformation of China's photovoltaic industry.

In February this year, Musk's team intensively visited several Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. He was looking at the entire industrial chain - from equipment, silicon wafers to battery components, and paid special attention to next-generation high-efficiency photovoltaic technologies including perovskite. These series of actions are regarded by the outside world as an important signal of his accelerated layout in the direction of energy and space infrastructure.

Although Musk himself has not publicly and explicitly bet on perovskite, from the perspective of his long-term layout, this technology is highly consistent with the core strategy of his space blueprint.

Compared with crystalline silicon cells, perovskite has higher efficiency, can still generate electricity under low-light conditions, has a short production process, and low production costs. At the same time, perovskite has the potential for lightweight and flexibility. It can even be stored in a curled form during launch and then unfolded for use after reaching orbit, significantly reducing the launch volume and payload weight, which gives it unique advantages in space photovoltaic scenarios. Currently, perovskite has been regarded by the industry as one of the core routes for next-generation photovoltaics.

For this reason, the competition around perovskite has long gone beyond simple technological competition and evolved into a national-level game concerning industrial discourse power.

In this international competition, Japan had the earliest layout in the perovskite field. In the early research stage of perovskite solar cells, Japan was at the global forefront, but was overtaken by China. When the competition shifted from the laboratory to the factory and from R & D to mass production, China, with its complete supply chain and cost advantages, has become the leader in the perovskite field.

According to the prediction of analysts from Zhongshang Industry Research Institute, the penetration rate of perovskite in China will be about 0.5% in 2024 and is expected to soar to 30% in 2030. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) predicts that the total global production capacity of perovskite cells will grow at an annual compound growth rate of about 140% and reach 461GW by 2030, with China accounting for the vast majority.

Feng Fan, the founder of Yanhe Technology, a perovskite enterprise, said: "Currently, the global perovskite photovoltaic industry presents a pattern where China leads comprehensively and Europe, the United States, and Japan pursue with differentiation. China has become the global center for perovskite equipment, R & D, manufacturing, and innovation, with relevant patents accounting for more than 75% of the world. Although Europe, the United States, and Japan have accumulations in niche fields such as basic research and flexible applications, their industrialization speed, production capacity scale, and cost competitiveness are far behind China."

In the competition around perovskite, every technological breakthrough and industrial action may change the story of the future global energy pattern.

01 From the Laboratory to the Industrial Frontline

The starting point of this game dates back to an ore discovered a century ago.

In 1839, German mineralogist Gustav Rose discovered an oxide with a strange crystal structure in the rocks of the Ural Mountains in Russia. Since the first discovered compound was a calcium titanate compound, this material is also collectively referred to as "perovskite."

In 2009, a research team from Toin Yokohama University in Japan introduced perovskite-structured materials to replace traditional dyes as the light-absorbing layer in solar cell research, initiating the exploration of perovskite materials in the photovoltaic field.

Ryuji Miyasaka selected an organic-inorganic hybrid perovskite material to replace the dye in traditional dye-sensitized solar cells as a new photosensitizer. The experimental results showed that the photoelectric conversion efficiency reached 3.8%. Miyasaka published the experimental content in the Journal of the American Chemical Society (JACS), becoming the first paper in an academic journal to systematically and publicly discuss the research on perovskite solar cells.

However, this battery only remained stable for a few minutes and then quickly disappeared. The liquid electrolyte dissolved and decomposed the perovskite light-absorbing layer, and the efficiency quickly dropped to zero. The world's first perovskite solar cell ended on the day of its birth.

The failure of this experiment was mainly due to the incompatibility between the physical and chemical properties of the liquid electrolyte and perovskite. This also made later researchers gradually realize that to achieve high efficiency and long service life, the liquid must be replaced with a more stable solid material to conduct charges.

02 The "Year of Key Breakthroughs" in 2012

In the following years, Japan was gradually overtaken by other countries on the "podium" of the perovskite efficiency competition.

In 2011, the research group led by Nam-Gyu Park from Sungkyunkwan University in South Korea improved the efficiency to 6.5% through technological innovation. However, the fatal defect of the liquid electrolyte still persisted, and the battery collapsed within a few minutes.

The real breakthrough occurred in 2012. The team led by Nam-Gyu Park collaborated with the team led by Professor Michael Grätzel from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne to produce the world's first all-solid-state perovskite solar cell using the solid hole transport material spiro‑OMeTAD, with an efficiency approaching 10%.

In the same year, the team led by Henry Snaith from the University of Oxford in the UK also independently achieved a similar breakthrough. By introducing the solid hole transport material Spiro-OMeTAD, they effectively avoided the damage of the perovskite layer by the liquid electrolyte and improved the stability of the device.

Both teams crossed this threshold in the same year. Compared with the previous liquid systems that could only last for a few minutes, the stability of this generation of devices was greatly improved, and they could maintain performance for a longer time.

After that, the efficiency of perovskite cells was significantly improved. In 2021, the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology in South Korea pushed the efficiency of single-junction perovskite cells to 25.8%, setting a new world record at that time.

While South Korea, the UK, and other countries were catching up, Japanese companies focused on the stability and safety of materials. Companies such as Sekisui Chemical and Panasonic bet on the directions of stability and lead-free materials, trying to establish a differentiated barrier in terms of material safety and long service life. The logic behind this is that stability remains the most difficult challenge for the industrialization of perovskite.

03 China Enters the Game and Reverses the Situation

Since 2013, perovskite solar cells have quickly become a global scientific research hotspot. Perovskite cells were selected as one of the "Top Ten Breakthroughs" by the journal Science and are regarded as the most promising next-generation photovoltaic technology.

In China, many top universities and research institutions, including the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing University, Peking University, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, and Zhejiang University, have successively listed perovskite as a key research material direction.

The speed of this catch-up demonstrates the characteristic of China's industry "overtaking the early starters."

Around 2018, domestic researchers improved the battery efficiency to over 23% through key technologies, setting a new world record, which was included by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in the United States.

After that, multiple technical routes advanced simultaneously: the efficiency of the tandem structure continued to break through, gradually increasing from about 24% to over 28%; at the same time, key links such as material preparation and device stability also made continuous progress.

While scientific research continued to advance, China turned to its most proficient battlefield: large-scale industrialization.

In 2015, Yao Jizhong, an alumnus of Zhejiang University, received funding from the Asia-Pacific Environment and Energy Cooperation Organization during his undergraduate studies and went to the University of New South Wales in Australia to study under Professor Martin Green, known as the "Father of Photovoltaics." After returning to China, he co-founded Xinneng Photovoltaic with his classmates in Hangzhou Future Science and Technology City, becoming one of the earliest Chinese enterprises to layout perovskite industrialization. "After verification, perovskite is the best photovoltaic material I've ever seen," Yao Jizhong said.

After that, start-up companies such as GCL Photovoltaic, Jidian Optoelectronics, Renshuo Optoelectronics, and Dazheng Micro-Nano emerged one after another and received a large amount of venture capital.

In 2021, GCL Photovoltaic built the world's first 100MW mass production line with a module size of 1m×2m and an efficiency of over 18%. The enterprises moved what could only be done in the laboratory to the factory workshop.

From 2022 to the present, the entry of industrial giants has changed the scale of this competition. Industry giants such as CATL, LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei have successively announced their layouts in perovskite or perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem. The GW-scale production lines of some enterprises have been put into operation or are in the construction stage. The participation of these enterprises brings not only capital but also a complete supply chain management system, channel resources, and mass production engineering capabilities.

Yang Runsi, an analyst from Guosheng Securities, pointed out that 2025 is the "Year of Mass Production" for perovskite at the GW level, and the perovskite field will enter a period of explosive production capacity in the next two years. Guosheng Securities predicts that the global production capacity will exceed 5GW in 2027 and break through 30GW in 2030.

In March 2026, Yu Zhenrui, the co-founder and president of Jidian Optoelectronics, said at a forum on perovskite that perovskite photovoltaic technology has crossed the threshold from the laboratory to the production line and officially entered a new development stage of industrial collaborative improvement.

Japan, which was the first to layout in the perovskite field, has also started to place heavy bets at the national level.

In November 2024, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan released the "Next-Generation Solar Cell Strategy," aiming to achieve a perovskite installed capacity of 20GW by 2040. Three giants, Toyota, Sekisui Chemical, and Toshiba, formed a consortium to jointly tackle mass production technologies. To promote the implementation of this strategy, the Japanese government provided a special subsidy of 157 billion yen (equivalent to about 7.47 billion yuan at that time) to the core enterprise Sekisui Chemical, which is one of Japan's largest fiscal bets on a single new energy technology in recent years.

It is worth mentioning that this strategic document also directly mentioned Japan's "historical complex": Japan accounted for about 50% of the global photovoltaic market around 2000, but since 2005, due to overseas competition - especially from China, manufacturers in Japan, the United States, and Germany lost their market shares simultaneously. Now, Japan's share in the global market has dropped to less than 1%.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan released the "Next-Generation Solar Cell Strategy."

Since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office in 2025, she has included perovskite solar cells and nuclear power in the national energy strategy. A series of actions, including billion-yuan subsidies, mass production R & D, and supply chain localization, have been successively implemented.

This is not only Japan's increased bet on the new technology route but also a reflection on the loss of the photovoltaic market in the past.

A senior person in the photovoltaic industry said: "Japan's bet on flexible perovskite and the independent control of iodine resources is a differentiated route, which is logically valid. However, its mass production rhythm is several years slower than that of China, and there is an obvious gap between the cost target and the actual prediction of enterprises. Whether this route can succeed depends on whether the flexible market can open up enough space and whether technical and supply chain barriers can be established."

04 The Race of Three Technical Routes

Currently, the development of perovskite solar cells can be divided into three main technical tracks: single-junction perovskite cells, perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem cells, and all-perovskite tandem cells, each with its own technical logic and application prospects.

Single-junction perovskite cells only use the perovskite light-absorbing layer, with the simplest structure and the lowest cost. In 2025, the collaborative team of Peng Jun and Zhang Xiaohong from Soochow University pushed the certified efficiency to 27.3%, and the team from Hainan University followed closely with 27.32%, setting a new world record.

Perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem cells stack a perovskite layer on crystalline silicon. The two absorb light in different wavelength bands and are compatible with existing crystalline silicon production lines. Currently, LONGi Green Energy has pushed the efficiency of small-area cells to 34.85% (certified by NREL), and that of large-area cells to 33%. Trina Solar's small-area tandem cells have an efficiency of 35%, and the large-area tandem module has an efficiency of 30.6% and a module power of 886W.

All-perovskite tandem cells do not use crystalline silicon at all. They use two layers of perovskite with different band gaps to achieve divided light absorption, with the greatest cost potential but high technical difficulty. The stability of materials remains a challenge. In March 2025, Guangyin Technology, in cooperation with Shanghai Jiao Tong University, pushed the efficiency of all-perovskite tandem cells to 31.27%.

The three tracks correspond to three "future bets": the single-junction bets on whether the material can independently replace crystalline silicon, the tandem bets on whether perovskite can extend the life of crystalline silicon, and the all-perovskite tandem bets on whether photovoltaics can completely bid farewell to the silicon era.

Looking at the progress in other countries.

Japan held the world record in the early stage of perovskite development and in the field of large-size modules (before 2023), but has been overtaken by other countries in recent years. Currently, Japan focuses on the directions of flexibility, stability, and mass production processes.

South Korea used to lead the single-junction perovskite efficiency competition for a long time. The Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology set a world record of 25.8% in 2021. However, with the breakthroughs of Chinese and European teams in tandem cells and industrialization, the global leading pattern has gradually shifted.

In Europe, Oxford PV in the UK built a 100MW perovskite tandem cell production line in Germany around 2021 and completed the world's first commercial sales of perovskite tandem modules in September 2024, with a commercial module efficiency of 24.5%. The Helmholtz Center (HZB) in Germany led with a tandem efficiency of 32.5% in 2022, but this record has also been refreshed by China (LONGi Green Energy).

In the United States, in July 2025, the perovskite sub-module certified efficiency of the cooperation between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the solar innovation enterprise CubicPV invested by Bill Gates reached 24.0%, setting a record for the United States in this category for the first time, but the industrialization is still in the early stage.

Generally speaking, China holds the world records in all three main tracks of single-junction, crystalline silicon tandem, and all-perovskite tandem. South Korea used to lead in the single-junction field for a long time but has been overtaken. Europe has a first-mover advantage in tandem commercialization but has fallen behind in efficiency records. The leader in this global relay race has clearly shifted from South Korea and Europe in 2012 to China.