Beware of joining "Qingtianzu". The "robot version of Didi" isn't that easy.
Recently, the advertisements for the investment promotion and franchise of the "Qingtianzu" robot have been overwhelming. From the Moments to the venture capital communities, slogans such as "the robot version of Didi", "low threshold and high returns", and "lying down to share the dividends of embodied intelligence" have made many investors eager to take action.
Just yesterday, a reader with the alias "Sister Stone" left me a message, sounding anxious and conflicted. She has 300,000 yuan, originally saved as education funds for her child. But after seeing the investment promotion presentation of Qingtianzu recently, she has the idea of joining the franchise. She repeatedly asked me, "This project is endorsed by the big company Zhiyuan. Can it really make money? I'm afraid of missing the opportunity, but I'm even more afraid of losing my child's tuition fees."
Sister Stone's anxiety is exactly the portrayal of many ordinary investors.
The year 2026 is defined by the industry as the "first year of commercial use" of embodied intelligence. "Qingtianzu" has quickly become popular taking advantage of this trend.
As the first domestic open - style robot leasing platform incubated and controlled by Zhiyuan Robot, it seemingly has the endorsement of a big company, but actually hides multiple risks.
This robot leasing business of Qingtianzu is by no means a low - threshold opportunity for ordinary people. Instead, it is Zhiyuan's "channel to clear inventory" and the platform's business of "selling equipment/collecting commissions". In essence, it is a "game of passing on risks" that transfers all risks such as technological iteration, heavy operating costs, and false demand propositions to the franchisees.
For ordinary investors, instead of gambling on the illusory future dividends, it's better to calm down and see the truth clearly first.
01 "Qingtianzu" under the packaging of the trend
As the humanoid robot technology of manufacturers such as Zhiyuan and Shouxing matures, the single - machine price of hundreds of thousands of yuan has become the biggest obstacle to popularization. The logic of "leasing instead of buying" has made the robot leasing market heat up rapidly.
"Qingtianzu" was officially launched in Shanghai in December 2025. The core team put forward the slogan of "breaking the high threshold of robot application", trying to make the robot usage scenarios as convenient as "power banks". By connecting equipment suppliers, leasing companies (franchisees) and end - users through the platform, it seems to perfectly solve the pain points of both supply and demand sides.
But as a senior industry insider, Zhang Dongwei has to point out: Zhiyuan's control of "Qingtianzu" has never been to give money to franchisees. It seems more like a carefully designed "risk - transfer" game.
In order to quickly digest production capacity and realize capital recovery, the host manufacturers transfer the expensive hardware depreciation, cumbersome offline operations, and uncertain market demand to social capital through the franchise model. The franchisees pay for the machines, bear the depreciation, shoulder the labor costs, and find orders, while the platform and Zhiyuan stably earn the equipment premium and commissions, regardless of the situation.
There are three investment promotion routines for Qingtianzu:
Firstly, the RaaS (Robot as a Service) model. The platform only provides underlying technology and order matching, and all local fulfillment costs are borne by the franchisees.
Secondly, the city partner/gold - level service provider model. Franchisees need to pay franchise fees and security deposits, or purchase equipment in sets to obtain regional operation rights. In essence, it is "paying to take over the burden".
Thirdly, the "machine - with - operator" fulfillment model. Different from the unattended operation of shared bicycles, humanoid robot leasing must be equipped with professional operators. Franchisees not only have to manage the machines but also the training and scheduling of the operators. The fulfillment cost far exceeds expectations.
The platform promotes through 14 high - frequency scenarios such as annual meetings, weddings, and shopping mall promotions, and creates the illusion of "hard - to - get machines" with the "1 - yuan flash rental". However, it never mentions the industry truth. According to the latest data in April 2026, the daily rental price of robots has dropped sharply from 15,000 - 30,000 yuan at the beginning of 2025 to 3,000 - 5,000 yuan. And with the over - supply of the industrial chain's production capacity, the price will further decline.
As a result, the pay - back period for robot rental has been extended from half a year to possibly more than three years. The so - called "trend" has already become a trap for harvesting leeks.
Actually, we just need to recall the development process of drone rental, VR helmet rental, etc.
02 Three core risks + industry unspoken rules
Although "Qingtianzu" is endorsed by the leading manufacturer Zhiyuan Robot, for ordinary investors who lack industry resources and don't understand technical maintenance, the risks of joining Qingtianzu are far more cruel than the "trend dividends".
Combined with the latest industry situation in April 2026, in addition to the three risks mentioned above, there is an "invisible killer" deliberately hidden by the platform, which is harvesting countless franchisees.
Firstly, heavy assets, fast depreciation, and hardware devaluation directly devour profits.
Humanoid robots are high - precision equipment with extremely fast technological iteration. The annual depreciation rate reaches 20% - 30%. The equipment shipped in 2025 will be out of warranty in 2026.
In addition, the global humanoid robot shipments increased by 508% year - on - year in 2025. The oversupply has led to a sharp drop in equipment prices. The Zhiyuan A3 model purchased for 300,000 yuan may be ignored next year due to outdated hardware.
Secondly, false demand proposition. "Novelty display" is difficult to support long - term returns.
The current core demand for robot rental is all "novelty display" in festivals, exhibitions, etc., which belong to non - essential and low - frequency scenarios.
Industry data shows that the order volume in the peak season increases by nearly 70% month - on - month, but the equipment idle rate in the off - season exceeds 70%. Idle periods are normal, and 65% of the orders are one - time demands with almost no repeat purchases.
When the supply far exceeds the demand, this business will only change from a "profitable blue ocean" to a "red - ocean meat grinder". Most of the time, the franchisees' equipment can only be left idle and gather dust.
Thirdly, extremely high fulfillment costs. Heavy operation makes it difficult to achieve "lying - down profit with light assets".
Robot rental is a typical heavy - operation business. Each order has to bear costs such as transportation, charging, debugging, and manual operation, and 80% of the orders still need manual control.
If the order density of the platform is insufficient, the franchisees' labor, logistics, and maintenance costs will directly lead to "losing money on each order". Many leasing companies' daily net profit is only a few hundred yuan.
An even more hidden industry unspoken rule is: software algorithm updates are the "fatal blow".
The platform will never tell you that the core of embodied intelligence lies in the algorithm, not the hardware. The equipment purchased by franchisees last year may not be able to run this year's new algorithms at all, and cannot adapt to new scenarios and new demands, directly becoming "scrap iron".
It's like if you join a smartphone rental company and you have an iPhone 6 in hand, while all the orders pushed by the platform require running the latest large - scale AI software.
Your hardware is not broken, but it is already "dead" in the technical dimension.
This kind of "dimensionality reduction strike" is devastating to ordinary franchisees who don't understand technology, and it is also a trap they will never see before entering the game.
03 Guide for ordinary investors to avoid pitfalls
Embodied intelligence is the future trend, but the current robot rental market is still in the primary stage of "hype" and far from forming a mature business closed - loop.
For ordinary investors, especially individuals who lack industry resources and don't understand technology, Zhang Dongwei gives the most straightforward and operable advice to avoid pitfalls. Remember this hardcore advice:
"If you don't know how to repair robots and don't know how to write scripts for robots, never rent robots."
The robot industry is still a high - tech - threshold industry at present, and it is by no means a franchise business for "lying - down profit".
However, if you are determined to embrace change and take the plunge?
1. Calculate the profit - and - loss account first and reject the temptation of "ideal returns".
Don't be confused by the platform's promotion of "daily rental of more than 3,000 yuan". Calculate the real data in combination with the local market:
Count the inventory, rental level, and vacancy rate of the same - category equipment. The red line of the vacancy rate at the break - even point must be controlled within 20%;
List all costs (equipment purchase/rental, depreciation, maintenance, labor, transportation, insurance) to avoid omitting hidden expenses;
The current industry gross profit margin has dropped to less than 22%. The claim of "paying back in half a year" is all lies.
2. Strictly review the contract terms and avoid overbearing clauses.
The contract is the only guarantee of rights and interests. Pay attention to three key points:
Clarify the conditions for refunding the security deposit, the responsibility division for equipment failures, and the party responsible for maintenance costs. Reject overbearing clauses such as "forced equipment placement", "performance gambling", and "unlimited joint liability";
The equipment must be provided with 3C certification and factory - qualified certificates. Clearly define the failure rate threshold, and it can be returned or exchanged unconditionally if the threshold is exceeded;
All oral commitments (guaranteed returns, order flow) must be written into the contract to avoid subsequent disputes.
3. Prioritize verifying the platform's strength and don't blindly trust the "endorsement of big companies".
The endorsement of big companies does not mean no risks. Be sure to do three things:
Check the platform's real order volume, the number of covered cities, and the number of service providers. Don't believe the marketing data of "16,000 people signing up";
Contact more than three existing franchisees and ask about the real order density, fulfillment costs, and payment collection cycle;
Verify the platform's after - sales and technical support capabilities to ensure the maintenance of robots and the update of algorithms are guaranteed, and avoid the equipment becoming "scrap iron".
04 Conclusion
Zhang Dongwei must emphasize again: "Qingtianzu" is not helping you start a business, but asking you to help it bear risks.
It takes advantage of the trend of embodied intelligence, packages itself with the endorsement of a big company, and lures with high returns. In essence, it is a "concept harvesting" targeting ordinary investors. Zhiyuan gets rid of inventory and operation risks, the platform earns enough commissions and equipment premiums, while the franchisees can only hold the depreciating equipment and bear all the losses.
Under the wave of technology, ordinary people are most likely to be influenced by the anxiety of "missing the opportunity means losing out", mistakenly thinking that as long as they enter the game, they can get a share of the pie.
But the essence of business is profit, not concept hype.
Facing so - called high - tech franchise projects like "Qingtianzu", be sure to stay sober.
Hold tight to your principal, keep your bottom line, don't be kidnapped by technology anxiety, and don't be the leek to be harvested. This is the most prudent choice at present.
If the investment promotion manager pats his chest and guarantees the returns, forward this article to him and ask him to write the "guaranteed dividends" and "equipment repurchase agreement" clearly in the contract. If he doesn't dare, turn around immediately and don't look back for a second.
After all, don't you have an idea of how much Didi drivers earn now?
This article is from the WeChat public account "Zhang Dongwei", written by Zhang Dongwei and published by 36Kr with authorization.