China Vanke's stock price fell below 4 yuan, hitting a new low since its listing.

On March 31st, at the close of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, Vanke A (000002) closed at 3.99 yuan per share, with a decline of 0.5% on the day. It closed below 4 yuan per share for the first time since its listing, hitting a record low.

On the same day, Vanke Enterprise (02202.HK) in the Hong Kong stock market also weakened. It closed at HK$2.91 per share, with a slight increase of 0.34% on the day, remaining in the historical low range.

Chart drawn by the author

Since early April 2025 when it was 7.14 yuan per share, Vanke A has cumulatively declined by about 44.1% in nearly a year. If we look at a ten - year period, calculated from the post - split high of about 36 yuan per share around 2018, Vanke A's cumulative decline has been nearly 90%. Its market value has shrunk from nearly 450 billion yuan at its peak to about 47.6 billion yuan, evaporating about 400 billion yuan in ten years.

Source: Eastmoney.com

The continuous slump in the stock price directly reflects the market's re - evaluation of Vanke's core value. On the one hand, huge losses in performance have become the core trigger for the collapse of the stock price. On January 30th, 2026, Vanke released its 2025 annual performance forecast, expecting a net loss of about 82 billion yuan in attributable profit to the parent company and a net loss of about 80 billion yuan after deducting non - recurring gains and losses. This figure not only significantly expanded compared with the 49.478 billion yuan loss in 2024 but also set a record for consecutive two - year losses of A - share real estate companies. The loss amount has exceeded the company's current total market value.

On the other hand, the continuous pressure on the capital side has exacerbated the decline of the stock price. In the past 10 trading days, the net outflow of main funds has exceeded 700 million yuan. The institutional holdings have been continuously reduced, and the signs of loose chips are obvious. Against the background of the lack of incremental funds to take over and the overall slump in the industry, in the repeated battles around the 4 - yuan mark, once the 4 - yuan integer mark is effectively broken through, panic selling will accelerate, further pushing the stock price down.

Before today's market close, Vanke A once touched a minimum of 3.96 yuan during intraday trading. This "breaking through 4 - yuan" trend is the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as Vanke's continuous two - year huge losses, the concentrated maturity of debts, the reconstruction of the governance structure, and the in - depth adjustment of the industry. It also marks that this veteran real estate company is experiencing the most severe survival test since its establishment.

Affected by performance losses and industry risks, Vanke's domestic and overseas financing channels have basically been closed, and it can only rely on the support of major shareholders and debt extensions to relieve liquidity pressure. In January 2026, Vanke obtained a low - interest loan of 2.36 billion yuan with a three - year term and an interest rate of 2.34% from Shenzhen Metro Group, which is specially used to repay the principal and interest of bonds. As of now, Shenzhen Metro Group has cumulatively provided more than 30 billion yuan in shareholder loans to Vanke, and the loan conditions are better than the market level.

Even so, Vanke's capital liquidity is still extremely tight, and the short - term debt pressure has not been substantially relieved. 2026 is still a peak period for Vanke's debt maturity, with April to July being the most concentrated period for redemption. The principal of the bonds due upon exercise amounts to 11.266 billion yuan in total, accounting for more than 80% of the annual due scale. Specifically, "23 Vanke MTN001" and "23 Vanke MTN002" are due on April 23rd and April 26th respectively, with 2 billion yuan each; "23 Vanke MTN003" and "23 Vanke MTN004" are due on June 15th and July 7th respectively, with 2 billion yuan each; "23 Vanke 01" is due on July 24th, with 2 billion yuan. The concentrated redemption of these bonds will put extreme pressure on Vanke's cash flow.

According to market news, Vanke is considering extending its domestic debts for up to 10 years as part of a comprehensive restructuring plan led by Shenzhen Metro. However, the extension can only relieve short - term pressure and cannot fundamentally solve the problem of excessive debt scale.

Currently, institutions also have different views on Vanke's stock price. Pessimistic institutions, out of concerns about continuous losses and liquidity crises, have set the lowest target price at 2.7 yuan per share. On the other hand, based on the DCF model calculation and the optimistic assumption of PB being restored to 0.7 times, Jefferies Securities has set Vanke's target price at 11.42 yuan per share.

In 2018, Vanke was the first in the industry to shout "Survive". Now, Vanke has entered the "survival first" stage. In the short term, Vanke's survival depends on liquidity. The peak period of bond redemptions from April to July is the first hurdle. Whether it can successfully extend the debt or obtain further shareholder support will determine whether it will trigger more extensive debt cross - defaults. In the long term, Vanke's way out lies in the stabilization of the industry and its ability to revitalize its own assets. Vanke still has a large number of high - quality assets and the endorsement of its major shareholder, and is expected to find a glimmer of hope in the dilemma.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Future Habitat", author: Xiaowu Jiandawu. It is published by 36Kr with authorization.