With assets exceeding 10 billion but revenue only in the millions, what supports the high valuation of Yuanxin Satellite?
On March 9th, the Shanghai United Assets and Equity Exchange released a pre - disclosure document for capital increase. Subsequently, the financial details of Yuanxin Satellite, a super unicorn in the commercial space industry, were fully exposed.
The figures on the financial statements present a strong contrast. As of now, Yuanxin Satellite's total assets amount to a staggering 10.18 billion yuan. However, the corresponding revenue data for its multi - billion - yuan valuation is extremely dismal.
From 2022 to 2024, the company's total revenue was only about 1.2 million yuan. In the first 11 months of 2025, the revenue indicator hit zero. During the same period, the company's cumulative losses in the past three years have exceeded 1.5 billion yuan.
The current primary market has extremely strict requirements for a company's cash flow. Nevertheless, Yuanxin Satellite holds a pre - investment valuation rumored to exceed 40 billion yuan and is currently advancing a new round of capital increase worth 5 to 6 billion yuan.
Capital is never blind. Behind the multi - billion - yuan valuation lies a completely different underlying consideration, and this account has long deviated from the traditional commercial financial calculation system.
Since the traditional financial model cannot reconcile this account, the real question arises:
On what basis can a company with almost no large - scale self - sustaining ability exchange for a multi - billion - yuan valuation from capital?
01
Why launch satellites frantically even with zero revenue?
The underlying logic for capital to give a multi - billion - yuan valuation to a zero - revenue company lies in the rules of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).
There is a physical limit to the number of satellites that can be accommodated in low - Earth orbit, and high - quality communication frequency bands are non - renewable strategic resources. The ITU's principle for allocating these scarce resources is extremely harsh, namely first come, first served.
Getting in the queue is just the beginning. After a company applies to the ITU for orbits and frequency bands, it must launch a sufficient number of satellites within a strict time frame to fill the network.
Once the progress indicators are not met within the deadline, the resources painstakingly applied for will be directly invalidated and reclaimed.
The use - it - or - lose - it rule is like a countdown hanging over their heads. This rule - induced pressure has become Yuanxin Satellite's greatest anxiety and, at the same time, the confidence for its frantic financing.
The only way to preserve the hard - won space assets is to launch satellites at all costs.
Looking back at the launch rhythm of the Qianfan Constellation in the past two years, it is clearly using real money to buy time.
By the end of 2025, the number of on - orbit satellites in the Qianfan Constellation reached 108. In 2026, their goal for constellation networking soared directly to 324 satellites.
The intensive launch missions mean that each rocket launch consumes a large amount of the company's cash reserves. At this stage without large - scale revenue support, continuous huge losses have become an inevitable norm.
Examining the capital increase document from this perspective, the one - billion - yuan - plus losses are highly strategically reasonable.
Top - tier investment institutions don't expect to get returns from the current profit statement. They are buying a ticket to the future global space infrastructure.
As long as they occupy the orbits and lock in the frequency bands within this fleeting time window, the current losses are just strategic sunk costs that must be paid.
Once the giant constellation is successfully networked in space, the physical monopoly advantage will naturally give rise to amazing commercial barriers.
02
Breaking the single - oligopoly and providing a "Plan B" for the global market
Yuanxin Satellite is very aggressive in expanding its overseas market.
In November 2024, the company officially signed a contract with TELEBRAS, a Brazilian state - owned telecommunications company, and the two parties plan to launch commercial services in 2026.
At the beginning of 2025, Yuanxin also obtained a cooperation memorandum with MEASAT, a Malaysian satellite operator.
Currently, they are conducting intensive business negotiations with more than 30 countries around the world. The core target markets for their booming overseas orders are mostly concentrated in large emerging markets. The underlying business logic here is supply - chain security and anti - monopoly.
In the global communication infrastructure construction, entrusting the underlying network entirely to a single oligopoly poses extremely high commercial risks.
In 2024, the social platform under Elon Musk's control got involved in regulatory disputes in Brazil, which directly affected the local assets and accounts of Starlink, also under his name.
This cross - business chain reaction has sounded the alarm for global telecom operators. Over - reliance on a single supplier may expose them to the risk of network outages or service disruptions at any time due to the supplier's other business disputes.
Many overseas markets are currently in urgent need of risk diversification and are looking for a "second supplier". They are eager to break free from the constraints of the oligopoly.
Yuanxin Satellite's entry into the overseas market at this critical moment fills this market gap. The Qianfan Constellation provides an alternative solution that can compete with Starlink in terms of technical scale, helping local areas establish a more healthy and diversified network ecosystem.
This core value as a global commercial "Plan B" has naturally translated into the most substantial commercial dividends for Yuanxin in the international market.
03
The "local forces" and "national team" of domestic giant constellations
Looking beyond a single company, the competitive landscape of domestic low - orbit broadband constellations has shown a two - star shining situation.
Currently, there are mainly two giant constellations planning to deploy over ten thousand satellites: one is the GW Constellation led by Xingwang, and the other is the Qianfan Constellation operated by Yuanxin.
These two companies represent two completely different approaches.
As a pure national team led by a central state - owned enterprise, Xingwang shoulders the tasks of fundamental technology research and overall coordination, and moves forward steadily.
Yuanxin Satellite, on the other hand, is a local force led by Shanghai state - owned assets and highly market - oriented, with a more flexible approach.
From the record - breaking 6.7 - billion - yuan Series A financing to the current capital increase listing on the property rights exchange, Yuanxin is extremely proficient in using commercial means to make rapid progress in both the capital market and the launch field.
This dual - track system reflects the unique strategic wisdom of China's commercial space industry. Given the limited rocket launch capacity and satellite manufacturing capacity, there is indeed competition between the two companies in the competition for industrial chain resources.
However, when competing against SpaceX's global layout, they support each other.
The national team stabilizes the core technology foundation, while the "local forces" use the flexibility of capital and mechanisms to expand overseas.
Complementing each other, they form the most practical formation for competing for low - orbit space sovereignty.
04
The life - and - death test from "network construction" to "network sales"
2026 is a watershed in Yuanxin's development. With the achievement of the goal of having 324 satellites in orbit, the Qianfan Constellation will initially complete regional network coverage.
However, after this infrastructure is built, the real life - and - death test is how to convert the multi - billion - yuan orbital assets into current cash flow.
Yuanxin's current means of monetization are extremely limited.
In the B2B segment, in - flight Wi - Fi and ocean - going maritime communication are high - value scenarios.
However, these existing markets are already occupied by traditional high - throughput geostationary orbit satellites and Starlink, which has an absolute first - mover advantage. It is extremely difficult for the Qianfan Constellation to seize market share from them.
In the consumer market, the much - anticipated direct - to - mobile service still faces hard - core physical bottlenecks such as antenna power and mobile phone power consumption at this stage, and there is still a long way to go before large - scale commercial monetization.
As for the labels of low - altitude economy and autonomous driving underlying network given to it by the outside world, they are currently more like long - term options to support the high valuation and cannot be reflected in the financial statements in the short term.
The gap between the concept and implementation poses extremely strict challenges to the company's organizational genes.
In the past few years, Yuanxin's core task was pure engineering research. As long as it could mass - produce and launch satellites, it was considered successful.
However, the subsequent global commercial operation will face an extremely traditional heavy - asset quagmire.
Expanding business in more than 30 overseas countries means competing with local deeply - rooted telecom oligopolies, going through extremely complex license approval processes, and establishing a cross - time - zone and cross - language ground after - sales response network.
For a team with an engineering background, these dirty and tiring tasks of cross - border telecom sales are often more difficult than launching satellites.
In the various segments of the commercial space industry, the "communication" link not only refers to the connection of signals in the sky but also to whether the ground - based commercial closed - loop can be truly established.
The threshold for revenue to jump from millions to billions is still full of uncertainties.
Conclusion
The million - level revenue and the over - billion - yuan valuation are an objective reflection of the heavy - asset investment in the early stage of the low - orbit communication network.
The current patience of capital stems from the recognition of the long - term value of the global space communication infrastructure.
As the overseas business gradually takes off in 2026, the focus of the Qianfan Constellation will shift from infrastructure construction to market operation.
When the large - scale satellite constellation starts serving global customers, continuous and healthy revenue data will be the ultimate standard to test whether its business model can succeed.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Xingdong Wuji", author: Unilym, published by 36Kr with authorization.