An internal notice from a VC: The completion rate of robot projects this quarter is 0%. Please explain the reasons.

After the Spring Festival Gala in 2026, the script of China's primary market was completely rewritten by a group of "Iron Men."

While investors in the secondary market can only focus on "embodied intelligence concept stocks," a group of investors with substantial funds have staged an unprecedented "scramble for shares" in the embodied intelligence track.

According to incomplete statistics, in just over three months since the beginning of 2026, dozens of financing events have been disclosed in China's embodied intelligence and robotics track, with a total financing amount exceeding 20 billion yuan. The investors include leading investment institutions such as Sequoia Capital China and Hillhouse Capital, as well as the National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund and multiple local state - owned platforms.

Among them, several companies, including Independent Variable Robotics, Xinghai Map, Zhipingfang, Qianxun Intelligence, and Xingdong Era, have seen their valuations exceed 10 billion yuan after disclosing their financing in February, joining the ranks of unicorns.

On the first day back to work after the Spring Festival, the "share anxiety" in the primary market has fully erupted. The greetings among investors have changed. Many investors told Rongzhong Finance that now the greeting has changed from "What track are you looking at recently?" to "Is there still a share in XX company?"

The anxiety is traceable. An investor who participated in the bidding but lost in the end sighed, "Now everyone is trying their best to get in. Everyone knows that the valuation is outrageously high, but if you don't scramble, you won't even have the qualification to sit at the table." Even more, someone said that the institutional partner directly asked at the quarterly review meeting, "The completion rate of robot projects this quarter is 0%. Please explain the reason." But the investment managers present looked at each other - it's not that they didn't look at projects, but there were simply no shares available.

The root of this FOMO (fear of missing out) emotion is the upcoming IPO feast.

Currently, in addition to Unitree Technology, which has completed the listing guidance, companies such as Zhiyuan Robotics, Yinhe General, Xinghai Map, Songyan Power, and Leju Robotics have clear listing plans.

With the precedent of domestic GPU companies rising more than 7 times on the first day of listing in 2025 and the market values of large - model companies Zhipu and MiniMax both exceeding HK$300 billion, no one wants to miss out on this "ultimate AI battle" in embodied intelligence.

Even if the valuation has overdrawn the expectations for the next two years and there are still uncertainties in commercialization, as long as the IPO bell rings, all stories will be re - priced - this is the cruelest and most real logic in this "scramble" game.

"Robots are being snapped up by investors"

After the Spring Festival, the embodied intelligence track has witnessed a wave of intensive "official announcements."

Independent Variable Robotics completed a 1 - billion - yuan Series A++ financing, Qianxun Intelligence completed nearly 2 billion yuan in two consecutive rounds of financing, Yinhe General completed a new round of 2.5 - billion - yuan financing, Xingdong Era completed a 1 - billion - yuan strategic round of financing, Jijia Vision completed a nearly 1 - billion - yuan Pre - B round of financing, and Pacini Perception Technology completed a Series B financing of over 1 billion yuan... The list goes on and on.

The dense stream of numbers on the screen has made many investors exclaim, "Now, if the financing is not in the 1 - billion - yuan level, you're not even qualified to hold a press conference."

This "1 - billion - yuan starting" financing threshold was unimaginable just a year ago.

Remember in 2025, the Unitree Technology robot performing clumsily on the Spring Festival Gala stage in a flowered cotton - padded jacket didn't attract much attention at that time. But a year later, Yinhe General, Magic Atom, and Songyan Power successively announced their participation, and the Spring Festival Gala has become the ultimate traffic entrance that robot companies are vying for at all costs.

This scene is a microcosm of the rapid prosperity of the robotics industry from 2025 to 2026 - from the sponsorship fees on the stage to the financing amounts in the primary market, the numbers have been rising, and the boundary between rationality and madness has become increasingly blurred.

What's even more amazing is the leap - forward increase in valuations. Since February, companies such as Independent Variable Robotics, Xinghai Map, Zhipingfang, Qianxun Intelligence, and Xingdong Era have successively completed new rounds of financing, and their valuations have successively exceeded the 10 - billion - yuan mark, joining the ranks of unicorns overnight. It's worth noting that most of these newly - minted 10 - billion - yuan - valued unicorns were founded after 2023, and the shortest - established one has been around for less than two years. In other words, they went from zero to a 10 - billion - yuan valuation in the time it takes for "one round of financing" in the Internet era - this was unimaginable in the hard - tech track in the past.

The lineup of investors behind this financing frenzy is incredibly luxurious.

The list of investors in Yinhe General includes almost all the core forces from national - level industrial funds to industrial chain giants: the National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund (the third phase of the large - scale fund), Sinopec, CITIC Investment Holdings, Bank of China Asset Management, SAIC Financial Holdings, SMIC Juyuan, Shenzhen Capital Group, Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Fund... A long list of names spans central state - owned enterprises, financial institutions, industrial capital, and local state - owned assets. The investors in Xingdong Era are more international, with international industrial giants such as Samsung, Singtel, Woori Capital, and CICC Porsche collectively entering the game, covering multiple industries such as technology, automotive, logistics, 3C, semiconductors, and new energy. The investment fund Prosperity under Saudi Aramco's venture capital appears among the investors of Qianxun Intelligence, and Independent Variable Robotics has received continuous support from Lightspeed China Partners, Legend Capital, Matrix Partners China, Hillhouse Ventures, and iSoftStone.

Meanwhile, the financing rhythm is also constantly breaking records. Zhipingfang completed a total of 12 rounds of financing in a year, becoming the embodied intelligence company with the fastest financing rhythm in the world; Jijia Vision completed a total of 500 million yuan in 4 consecutive rounds of Series A financing within three months at the end of 2025, and then completed a nearly 1 - billion - yuan Pre - B round of financing in March 2026; Lingxin Qiaoshou has completed six rounds of financing since 2025, with a cumulative amount of billions of yuan.

The explosive growth in the global market provides a macro - level explanation for this financing frenzy. The "Global Humanoid Robot Market Analysis" released by IDC on January 23, 2026, shows that the global humanoid robot shipments in 2025 were about 18,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 508%, and the industry was crowned with the title of "the first year of mass production of humanoid robots."

Data from market research firm Counterpoint Research shows that China is already the world's largest market for humanoid robot applications, accounting for more than 80% of the global implementation volume in 2025. Nine out of the top ten global humanoid robot companies in terms of shipments are from China. A recent report from Morgan Stanley predicts that China's shipments will reach 14,000 units in 2026, exceed one million units in 2034, and are expected to reach 30 million units in 2041, catching up with the scale of the passenger car market.

Facing such a long - term narrative, it's not hard to understand why investors are willing to pay crazy prices for the current "1 - billion - yuan threshold."

Can those who leave the table get back on in the future?

The robotics track has not always been favored by the primary market. Just a year ago, a debate that swept through the entire venture capital circle pushed this track to the forefront of public opinion.

In March 2025, Zhu Xiaohu, the managing partner of GSR Ventures, was interviewed by the media and sparked the entire venture capital circle with just a few words. "We are exiting humanoid robot companies in batches. I asked these CEOs where their potential commercial customers are. I feel that the customers they mentioned are all imagined. Who would spend hundreds of thousands of yuan to buy a robot to do these jobs? Now the consensus is highly concentrated, and the valuation is rising very fast. This has become a track that early - stage VCs want to avoid."

The news quickly spread. That night, Zhang Ying, the founder of Matrix Partners China, responded in his WeChat Moments, saying bluntly, "The robotics field is booming. It's a large - scale track with a variety of developments. It's very normal to have a little bubble in the process. In the long run, the humanoid robot track will definitely produce large - scale companies."

Xinghai Map, which was named in the statement, issued a clarification announcement about its cooperation with GSR Ventures and called on the embodied intelligence track to have a long - term and prosperous future. The development of the industry depends on the continuous attention and strong support of all sectors of society. Another company, Songyan Power, which was exited, posted a video of its humanoid robot product running on its video account, with the caption "Fear no noise and keep moving forward." Its founder, Jiang Zheyuan, commented when reposting the video on his WeChat Moments, "The apes on both sides keep screaming, but my light boat has sailed through thousands of mountains."

Before the after - effects of this debate subsided, the market trend had already started to give an answer. After GSR Ventures exited, Xinghai Map quickly received subsequent - round financing from Hillhouse Capital, Ant Group, etc. Its valuation soared, and it was promoted to a 10 - billion - yuan - valued unicorn. Songyan Power also completed multiple rounds of financing later, and this "bearish" company even appeared on the Spring Festival Gala stage in 2026.

This scene is quite dramatic: on one hand, early - stage VCs are leaving in batches, and on the other hand, industrial capital and Internet giants are rushing to enter - to some extent, this reflects the huge differences in investment judgments of different investment institutions towards the humanoid robot industry.

So, is Zhu Xiaohu's doubt reasonable?

The "Global Humanoid Robot Market Analysis" report released by IDC in January 2026 provides some data support for him to a certain extent. The report shows that the market demand for humanoid robots in 2025 was mainly driven by scenarios such as cultural and entertainment performances, education and scientific research, and data collection. Among them, the two scenarios of cultural and entertainment performances and education and scientific research accounted for a total of 61.4% of the market share. In other words, the main purpose of customers who buy humanoid robots at this stage is for display, performance, and research, rather than real - world production. Those robots that dance yangko in the exhibition hall, do demos in the laboratory, and are used for people to take photos on the stage really have a hard time supporting a trillion - level industrial market.

In November 2025, Li Chao, the deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, for the first time warned of risks in the humanoid robot industry at a press conference, saying that it is necessary to prevent problems such as "a large number of highly - similar products flooding the market and the R & D space being compressed." This statement attracted strong attention from the industrial circle and the capital market and revealed the potential risks behind the current high - speed development of the domestic humanoid robot industry.

This is the first time in China that risks have been clearly warned for this industry, pointing directly to the deep - seated concerns in the current industrial development.

Li Chao said that "speed" and "bubble" have always been issues that need to be grasped and balanced in the development of cutting - edge industries, and the same is true for the embodied intelligence industry. At the same time, Li Chao also emphasized that there are currently more than 150 humanoid robot companies in China, and this number is still increasing. More than half of them are startups or companies that have entered the industry from other fields. It is necessary to focus on preventing risks such as a large number of highly - similar products flooding the market and the R & D space being compressed.

Beyond the financing bubble, a deeper concern comes from the long - term lack of industry standards. For a long time before, there were no unified technical specifications, interface protocols, and safety standards in the Chinese humanoid robot industry. While "everyone can build a robot," it also means that "everyone is building different robots" - the product interfaces of each company are incompatible, the data formats are different, and the control systems are not interoperable. The cost of industrial cooperation and large - scale commercial deployment has been pushed to an astonishing level.

At the end of 2025, the Embodied Intelligence Standardization Technical Committee of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology was officially established, which is a key step in regulatory improvement. Xiong Rong, the chief scientist of the Zhejiang University Innovation Center, said that in 2026, industry standards will focus on standardizing core dimensions such as term definitions, technical requirements, interface protocols, intelligent classification, data collection, and safety specifications.

Looking back at the time when Zhu Xiaohu exited, a phenomenon worth pondering is that the projects he left were quickly snapped up by another group of "successors." This shows that with the in - depth involvement of government - guided funds, industrial capital, and Internet giants today, the exit of early - stage VCs does not mean that the track has lost its value. Instead, the structure of investors is being reshaped at an accelerated pace.

IPO countdown: Who can survive to ring the listing bell?

At the beginning of 2026, a widely - circulated joke in the industry accurately captured the collective anxiety in the industry: The CEO of a humanoid robot company told his employees that there are only two ways for the company this year. One is to go public, and the other is to increase shipments. No one should think about a third way.

Behind this statement is the same question that more than a hundred humanoid robot companies are facing: Money is becoming more selective than last year. Currently, several robot companies have completed the shareholding system reform and entered the IPO guidance filing process. In other words, 2026 will be the window period for the first batch of companies to sprint for listing.

Driven by IPO expectations, at the beginning of 2026, there was a fundamental restructuring of the pricing logic in the humanoid robot industry. Unitree Technology launched the Unitree R1 series around the Spring Festival, with a starting price of only 29,900 yuan, bringing the price of humanoid robots into the consumer - level perception range for the first time and causing a stir in the industry. Songyan Power also launched a consumer - level product, Bumi, when it appeared on the Spring Festival Gala stage, with the price below 10,000 yuan, and its promotional positioning is directly aimed at the household service scenario.

The two companies almost simultaneously played the low - price card. On the surface, it is a competition for the consumer market, but in essence, it is a strategic game of exchanging price for shipment volume and using shipment volume to support the IPO story - whoever can present more impressive shipment volume data before listing will have more say in pricing.

However, the flip side of the price war is more severe cost pressure. Morgan Stanley estimates that under non - Chinese supply chains, the average BOM cost of a humanoid robot is currently about $131,000. Even if a Chinese supply chain is used, the BOM cost is still as high as $46,000. Compared with the price of tens of thousands of yuan, the gap is obvious. Leading companies are generally seizing market share at a loss or with a small profit. This game of exchanging volume for market share and market share for valuation ultimately tests who has more abundant capital reserves - how long the cash on the books can last determines who can hold on until the day when economies of scale arrive.

For most non - leading companies, the question in 2026 has become an insoluble equation.

Data from Tianyancha shows that as of the end of 2025, there were more than one million robot - related companies in China, and more than 200,000 new companies were added in 2025. Although the primary market seems extremely lively, it is always those leading companies that receive large - scale financing of over one billion yuan. Most companies have hardly received any external funds since their establishment and rely on the savings of the founding team or a small amount of angel investment to maintain operations.

Every technological revolution will experience a cruel cleansing after the explosive growth period. Photovoltaic, electric vehicles, and AI chips are no exception. The cleansing in the humanoid robot track has just begun.

If 2025 was the first year of mass production of humanoid robots, then 2026 is becoming the real elimination - round year under the commercialization test. The era of financing with PPTs and attracting attention with concepts in the past few years is over. Now is the time to compete in real - world shipment volume, cost control, and capital reserves.

And those investors who have scrambled to get a share are now holding their breath, waiting for the moment when the IPO bell rings. In