The first good news for VC/PE this year has arrived.
The spring of 2026 appears exceptionally vibrant.
As the opening year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China's economy stands at a brand - new historical watershed. On one hand, there is a profound reshaping of traditional growth drivers. On the other hand, future industries centered around "new - quality productivity" are accelerating to break through bottlenecks.
Today, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened. When delivering the government work report, Premier Li Qiang not only clearly proposed to "cultivate and develop future industries such as future energy, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, brain - computer interface, and 6G", but also for the first time set the tone in the country's highest administrative program - "establish a mechanism for increasing investment in future industries and sharing risks".
This is not only a policy - level tone - setting but also a profound transformation of the investment and financing paradigm. If 2024 was the enlightenment year of "patient capital" and 2025 was the infrastructure - building year of national guiding funds, then 2026 officially kicks off the "practical year of risk - sharing and full - cycle support".
New Industrial Coordinates
Cultivating and strengthening emerging and future industries is the highlight of the 2026 government work report. This year's report named five highly penetrative tracks: future energy, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, brain - computer interface, and 6G. These tracks not only represent the highest technological frontier but also the "physical foundation" of future global competition among major powers.
Take "embodied intelligence" as an example. It marks that AI investment has officially shifted from the pure software competition of "large models" to the deep - water area of hard - software coupling and virtual - real interaction. In the AI wave of the past few years, capital has overly focused on algorithm iteration while neglecting the perception and interaction capabilities of physical entities. The proposal of embodied intelligence means that the industrial chain will extend upstream to precision reducers, high - performance sensors, and bionic materials. For venture capital institutions, this requires investment teams to have stronger industrial integration capabilities rather than just looking at algorithm models on PPTs.
Looking at "brain - computer interface" and "quantum technology", these technologies, once regarded as laboratory wonders, are now included in the government work report, indicating that the industrialization clock at the national level has started.
The brain - computer interface represents the ultimate form of human - machine interaction, while quantum technology is a game - changer in the computing power competition. These industries are characterized by extremely high R & D investment, high failure risk, and long commercialization cycles. This is exactly why the report specifically emphasizes "establishing a mechanism for increasing investment in future industries and sharing risks". Because market - oriented funds that only pursue IRR (Internal Rate of Return) simply cannot survive such a long technological vacuum period.
Historical experience tells us that from photovoltaics to lithium batteries, the explosion of China's hard - tech industries has all followed the path of "policy leadership, capital follow - up, application traction, and cluster explosion".
The layout in 2026 is obviously the "2.0 version" of this model. By leading with government investment funds to attract private capital into these "future - oriented" fields, it essentially uses a definite policy orientation to hedge against the asymmetric risks in technological R & D. For GPs, future opportunities no longer lie in the gaps of model innovation but in these "hard - core" lists determined by the state.
It is worth mentioning that the report also proposed to "establish a national low - carbon transition fund to cultivate new growth points such as hydrogen energy and green fuels. Effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and support the innovation and application of green and low - carbon technology and equipment." And this is the first time that "green fuels" have been written into the government work report.
Meanwhile, the report also mentioned the need to "vigorously develop venture capital and angel investment".
Compared with the funds that flooded the Internet, consumer, and other fields in the past decade, future industries (such as brain - computer interface and quantum technology) face a huge "valley of death" in the technological germination period. Due to the extremely low technological maturity, high R & D investment, and high failure rate in these fields, conventional bank credit or capital seeking short - term returns often shy away.
Looking back at history, China's venture capital industry was baptized by the "17 National Policies for Venture Capital" in 2024, which clearly provided policy support for the entire chain of "fund - raising, investment, management, and exit". In the 2026 report, listing angel investment alongside future industries implies that angel investment is not only the "first sip of water" for funds but also the key link between laboratory research results and market - oriented commercial applications.
From historical experience, after the early boom of model innovation, the VC industry has fully shifted to hard - tech in recent years. However, due to the extremely long growth cycle of hard - tech enterprises, the previously common "5 + 2" fund term can no longer match the current investment return logic. Reiterating the need to vigorously develop venture capital and angel investment in this report is essentially to encourage capital to move to the forefront of the industry through policy guidance.
Only by establishing a solid "angel capital layer" in the seed and start - up stages can future industries avoid becoming a castle in the air. This is not only a return to the investment form but also a reshaping of the behavior paradigm of venture capital institutions - from "making valuation differences" to "earning technological premiums", from "picking fruits" to "planting fruit trees".
This positioning establishes the important historical status of venture capital and equity investment in the new stage of China's high - quality economic development and is conducive to promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the industry. By vigorously developing angel investment, venture capital institutions can more effectively play their professional advantages in value discovery and risk - sharing, and promote more start - up enterprises to grow into leading technology enterprises.
Make Efficient Use of the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund
On the battlefield of hard - tech investment, without a continuous influx of "source water", even the best technologies are difficult to transform into output value. The 2026 government work report proposed to "make efficient use of the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund".
Looking back at the background of this fund, the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund was officially launched at the end of 2025. Its core highlight is not its 100 - billion - yuan registered capital but its subversive reform of China's traditional government guiding fund model. First, it has a 20 - year term, including a 10 - year investment period and a 10 - year exit period. This is unimaginable in the previous "5 + 2" or "7 + 3" fund terms. This leap in the time dimension completely solves the exit pressure faced by GPs when "investing early and in small enterprises", giving capital a real "patient" foundation.
More importantly, this fund clearly states that "there is no regional reinvestment requirement". For a long time, the "regional reinvestment" of local guiding funds has been the heaviest shackle for GPs, leading to low resource allocation efficiency and even irrational investment promotion competition. As a "mother - of - mother funds", the national guiding fund, through a three - tiered structure design - "national mother fund - regional fund - sub - fund" - realizes the national flow and optimal allocation of funds. The first - batch of three regional funds established in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area each have a scale of over 50 billion yuan.
Under this structure, the scale of sub - funds invested in seed - stage and start - up enterprises should not be less than 70% of the fund scale. This means that state capital is, through institutional design, forcibly reversing the trend of market capital concentrating on the "growth stage" or "pre - IPO" in the past few years. According to the prediction of the Mother Fund Research Center, the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund will attract and drive nearly 1 trillion yuan of local and social capital. This huge leverage effect not only brings opportunities to market - oriented GPs facing fundraising difficulties but also reshapes the ecological structure of Chinese LPs, promoting government investment funds to take the lead in being patient capital.
There is a classic saying in the venture capital circle: VCs have long suffered from fundraising difficulties. The emergence of this venture capital mother fund is undoubtedly a huge amount of fresh water, greatly boosting the confidence of the venture capital industry. And this year's government work report's emphasis on making efficient use of the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund means that the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund will take action more quickly, and more national - level mother funds and direct - investment funds will be launched as soon as possible, bringing more fresh water to the equity investment industry and more support to private investment funds in relevant fields.
Risk - Sharing and Fault - Tolerance Systems to Break the Deadlock of "Dare Not Invest"
In the venture capital industry, risk and return are always proportional. However, in the "uncharted territory" of hard - tech, especially future industries, the risk often exceeds the bearing capacity of a single institution. The "establishment of a risk - sharing mechanism" proposed in the 2026 government work report is regarded as a breakthrough move by the industry.
The report mentioned that government investment funds should take the lead in being patient capital and promote more start - up enterprises to grow into leading technology enterprises.
In recent years, the term "patient capital" has become a widely discussed hot topic in the venture capital circle.
In the current capital landscape, state - owned LPs are undoubtedly the mainstay in building "patient capital" and long - term capital pools. Since last year, the underlying logic of the equity investment market has undergone a profound fission. A significant signal is that a large number of newly established mother funds and direct - investment funds have broken the traditional term constraints and extended their survival cycles to 15 to 20 years.
This "ample time" is not only reflected at the mother - fund level but also transmitted down to the sub - fund ecosystem. According to incomplete statistics, in the guiding funds newly established in 2025, more than half (about 53%) clearly allow sub - funds to have a survival period of more than 10 years in their terms. This "collective tolerance" for the cycle marks that China's venture capital is moving from the "short - term, quick - profit" arbitrage era to the "long - term accompanying" era.
However, true patience is not just about extending the time but also about upgrading the risk - bearing capacity. Building a patient capital system is essentially an institutional innovation regarding the "fault - tolerance mechanism". The objective law of scientific and technological innovation determines that "investing early and in small enterprises" is inevitably accompanied by high - volatility risks. Without a "tolerance for failure" system, investment enthusiasm will be like a tree without roots. Only by organically combining a long - term survival period, a perfect fault - tolerance and exemption system, and a flexible exit path can state - owned and social capital be truly driven to penetrate into the "uncharted territory of science and technology innovation" and fulfill the mission of "investing early, in small enterprises, and in hard - tech".
As the government work report sets the tone for "patient capital" again, this is not just a policy - level warm wind but a profound restructuring of productivity. It will accelerate the institutionalization and long - termization of the domestic LP structure, forcing GPs to abandon their impetuous speculative mentality and return to the origin of value discovery. Under the resonance of policies and capital, the venture capital industry is deeply cultivating the underlying soil of hard - tech with the strategic determination of "spending ten years to forge a sword", accompanying and witnessing the budding of countless start - up enterprises, which will eventually transform into leading technology forces that can support the country.
For a long time, the "audit pressure" and "personal liability investigation" of state - owned LPs have been the invisible chains that restrict the role of patient capital. Since scientific and technological innovation is naturally accompanied by a high failure rate, if state - owned funds are required to preserve and increase value like bank credit, then "investing early and in small enterprises" can only be an empty talk. The improvement of the fault - tolerance mechanism mentioned in the report is precisely to break this deadlock. This means that the future assessment system will shift from "project audit" to "portfolio audit" and from "single success or failure" to "system effectiveness".
This risk - sharing is not only reflected between the government and GPs but also in the synergy of multi - channel funds. For example, by expanding the equity investment pilot of financial asset investment companies (AICs) and supporting the participation of insurance funds, a synergy of "long - term bank funds + endurance of insurance funds + government guidance" is being formed.
Since 2025, the signing amount of AIC funds has exceeded 380 billion yuan. The entry of this huge amount of funds essentially establishes a "firewall" at the capital end, enabling more market - oriented GPs with professional judgment to dare to explore start - up enterprises that, although extremely risky, have strategic value.
Unblocking the exit channels is also an important part of risk - sharing. The 2026 report emphasizes optimizing the institutional system of "fund - raising, investment, management, and exit" for private equity and venture capital funds. In addition to the traditional IPO, the state is vigorously promoting the development of mergers and acquisitions and S funds (private equity secondary market funds). By jointly establishing a venture capital secondary market fund of over 350 billion yuan with social security funds, large - scale banks, etc., a "second exit" is provided for capital circulation. Only when capital can exit and enter smoothly can risks be diluted in the flow, and the patience of capital will have a solid foundation.
Standing at the starting point of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China's venture capital industry is undergoing a complete "genetic recombination". The past models that relied on information asymmetry, traffic dividends, and the price difference between the primary and secondary markets have completely ended. The next decade will be a decade when professional capabilities, industrial depth, and national will resonate.
As the "national team" takes the lead in being patient capital, the role of GPs will transform from "financial intermediaries" to "long - term partners of technology enterprises". Against the background of the state setting the tone for future industries, providing risk - sharing, and optimizing the LP structure, truly leading institutions must have strong technological judgment capabilities and be able to see the commercialization inflection point three years earlier than the market in esoteric fields such as brain - computer interface or future energy. This is not just a competition of money but a competition of "cognitive premium".
The fundraising logic of GPs will shift from "project - driven" to "mission - driven". In the future, the main LPs - whether it is the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund or AIC funds - will no longer select GPs based solely on historical IRR but on the contribution of GPs to the industrial ecosystem and their execution ability of national strategies. Institutions that can integrate into the construction of the modern industrial system, help solve "bottleneck" problems, and promote the development of new - quality productivity will receive continuous "fresh water" support.
A more resilient "rainforest - style" investment ecosystem is taking shape. Government investment funds play a leading and driving role, stimulating the vitality of private investment through institutional innovation. In this ecosystem, large - scale institutions are responsible for long - term infrastructure - like investment, refined and specialized vertical - track GPs are responsible for discovering highly dynamic start - up enterprises, and S funds and the M & A market are responsible for the self - circulation of the ecosystem.
As pointed out in the expert symposium chaired by Premier Li Qiang, multiple measures should be taken to create a first - class industrial ecosystem and promote in - depth cooperation between upstream and downstream, large and small enterprises. For all venture capital practitioners, the 2026 government work report is not just a simple task list but a "ticket to the future". Against the background of the 15th Five - Year Plan, only those institutions that truly return to the origin of value and deeply cultivate the hard - tech fertile soil with the determination of "spending ten years to forge a sword" can lead in this magnificent industrial competition.
This article is from the WeChat official account "Rongzhong Finance" (ID: thecapital), author: Wang Tao, published by 36Kr with authorization.