Space photovoltaics are of great significance, but Elon Musk cannot drive the Chinese photovoltaic industry.

After Elon Musk's team, the chairman of Tesla and SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.), visited several Chinese photovoltaic companies in early February, multiple stocks in the A-share photovoltaic sector hit the daily limit, and space photovoltaics became a hot topic.

Caixin recently interviewed several authoritative figures in the photovoltaic industry, and they have four core viewpoints:

1. HJT (Heterojunction) batteries are most likely to become the next-generation space photovoltaic batteries, and the next-next-generation space photovoltaic batteries will be perovskite tandem batteries.

2. Musk's space photovoltaic plan has little impact on boosting China's photovoltaic demand. Even if Musk's dream comes true, space photovoltaics will only account for a small proportion of the global photovoltaic consumption, and it cannot replace ground-based photovoltaics.

3. The development progress of U.S. space photovoltaics needs to be highly valued. However, U.S. space photovoltaics will be rooted in domestic manufacturing in the United States. It is unrealistic for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises to obtain a large number of U.S. orders. The real opportunity for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises is to serve China's space strategy well.

4. Photovoltaics are undoubtedly the cornerstone energy in space. The future energy system will be an integrated system of the earth and space. The photovoltaic industry should strengthen cooperation with domestic commercial space industry to jointly explore the vast blue ocean of space photovoltaics.

01

Is Musk's space photovoltaic plan reliable?

Musk regards space photovoltaics as the main energy source to support his future AI computing power. He has stated several times in the past two months that Tesla and SpaceX will achieve an annual manufacturing capacity of 100 gigawatts of photovoltaic modules within three years.

SpaceX previously proposed the "Orbital Data Center" plan. This plan will utilize the heavy-lift capacity of the Starship to deploy high-energy-consuming computing facilities to low Earth orbit, solving the physical limitations of computing power expansion. SpaceX recently completed a full acquisition of the artificial intelligence company xAI.

Musk said that the power generation efficiency of space photovoltaics can reach five times that of ground-based photovoltaics. In 30 to 36 months, space may become the most economical scenario for deploying artificial intelligence computing power centers.

Regarding Musk's space photovoltaic plan, a technical director of a leading photovoltaic enterprise believes that Musk's vision is still far away. There is still great potential for building photovoltaic power stations on the ground, and there is no need to go to the trouble of building in space. For example, the AI data center that Microsoft plans to build in the UAE will be equipped with a photovoltaic power station with a power supply scale equivalent to that of a nuclear power plant, and its cost and safety are better than those of nuclear power.

This leading enterprise has photovoltaic batteries suitable for space use, and its photoelectric conversion efficiency currently holds the world record.

Xu Xiaohua, the chairman of Huasheng New Energy, believes that the implementation speed of Musk's vision may be faster than expected in China. Judging from a series of recent preparatory work by Musk, he may build an AI computing power center in space within three years.

Huasheng New Energy Group is the enterprise with the highest production capacity and output of HJT batteries at present, and it is also the enterprise that the Space X team has visited several times recently.

Xu Xiaohua said that in fact, Musk's team wants to take advantage of the trough of the Chinese photovoltaic industry to acquire the equipment, experience, and talents of the Chinese photovoltaic industry at a low price, but will not directly purchase Chinese photovoltaic products for its space plan. Chinese photovoltaic enterprises should be clear-headed. In addition to being more committed to maintaining technological leadership, they should also actively cooperate with the domestic commercial space industry to expand space application scenarios.

02

What are the technological and market prospects of space photovoltaics?

The current mainstream of space photovoltaic batteries is gallium arsenide batteries, and their cost is hundreds to thousands of times that of ground-based photovoltaic batteries.

The current demand for space photovoltaic products is only in the megawatt level, while Musk believes that it will be in the gigawatt and terawatt levels in the future (Note: 1 gigawatt = 1000 megawatts, 1 terawatt = 1000 gigawatts). Whether Musk is overly optimistic or not, it is a consensus in the industry that the scale of space photovoltaics in the future will be several orders of magnitude larger than the current level. To expand the scale, the cost needs to be reduced, and it is inevitable to replace the high-cost gallium arsenide batteries.

For photovoltaic batteries to be suitable for space use, the core is to have a low weight/power ratio and be able to resist radiation and temperature differences. The technical director of the above-mentioned leading enterprise said that there are mainly two technical routes to replace gallium arsenide batteries: one is P-type HJT batteries, and the other is perovskite tandem batteries. The cost of these two types of batteries is much lower than that of gallium arsenide batteries.

On the ground, N-type batteries are more efficient than P-type batteries. Currently, the commercially produced HJT batteries are mainly N-type, and their silicon wafers are relatively thick. The industry believes that P-type, thin silicon wafer HJT batteries suitable for space use can be mass-produced soon. The main difference between P-type and N-type photovoltaic batteries is the different doping substances in the battery silicon wafers. P-type silicon wafers are doped with boron, and N-type silicon wafers are doped with phosphorus.

Xu Xiaohua said that in terms of production line equipment, the conversion of HJT batteries from N-type to P-type is very easy, without technical and cost problems. Currently, the thickness of HJT battery silicon wafers can be made to 60 microns. If used in space, the silicon wafer thickness needs to be reduced to less than 50 microns. There is no problem in production, but it will lead to a decrease in product yield. Compared with the cost of gallium arsenide batteries, the cost increase caused by the yield problem can be ignored.

The technical director of the above-mentioned leading photovoltaic enterprise analyzed to Caixin that the power of photovoltaic modules carried by a satellite is between 2 kilowatts and 10 kilowatts. According to Musk's vision of 1 million satellites, the total amount of photovoltaic modules required is between 2 gigawatts and 10 gigawatts. The global consumption of photovoltaic modules in 2025 is expected to exceed 600 gigawatts. Currently, the total number of active satellites in orbit around the earth is about 14,500. Even if Musk can complete the deployment of 1 million satellites, space photovoltaics will only account for a small proportion of the photovoltaic market.

Xu Xiaohua believes that the potential of space photovoltaics should not be underestimated. He said that the design life of space computing power satellites and communication satellites is only 3 - 5 years, which is equivalent to consumables, and a batch will be replaced every year. For the photovoltaic industry, space photovoltaics is a continuously and rapidly growing market and a high-premium market.

But he added that from the current international situation, it is difficult for Musk and the U.S. space industry to purchase Chinese photovoltaic products. They will only poach some equipment and talents. Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers should clearly recognize that the U.S. space photovoltaics is not a big business opportunity. Musk's goal is to build a domestic photovoltaic industrial chain in the United States, rather than purchasing Chinese photovoltaic products. China's space photovoltaics is the business opportunity for Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers.

03

What is the significance of space photovoltaics?

Regarding the significance of space photovoltaics, there are mainly two views in the industry. One is to fundamentally solve the problems of intermittency, land constraints, and energy security of ground-based renewable energy; the other is to provide a more economical cornerstone energy for the space economy and deep space exploration.

When participating in a podcast program in early February, Musk said that with the continuous expansion of the artificial intelligence computing power scale, the power supply in the United States is difficult to meet the demand, and there are significant challenges in aspects such as power grid expansion, land resources, gas power generation equipment supply, and approval cycle. In contrast, space has the natural conditions for continuously obtaining solar energy and is expected to become a new path to break through the AI energy bottleneck.

The technical director of the above-mentioned leading photovoltaic enterprise believes that photovoltaics are undoubtedly the cornerstone energy in space, but it is completely unnecessary to use space photovoltaic power generation as the energy supply required on the ground because the cost is much higher than building a photovoltaic power station on the ground.

Xu Xiaohua believes that human civilization is at the threshold of moving from the "Earth Era" to the "Cosmic Era", and the future energy system will be an integrated system of the earth and space. The industry should fully recognize the great changes in the next 3 - 5 years, make continuous changes in processes, materials, and manufacturing technologies, and strengthen cooperation with the domestic commercial space industry to jointly explore the vast blue ocean of space photovoltaics.

SpaceX has significantly reduced the cost of space transportation, and its shortcoming is the production capacity of space photovoltaics. China has the advantage in manufacturing photovoltaic products and urgently needs to improve the economy of the space industry.

Photovoltaic manufacturing equipment is now highly mature and commercialized. Encouraged by the U.S. government, U.S. enterprises are accelerating the construction of a domestic photovoltaic industrial chain.

According to the latest data from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) in February 2026, the total announced investment in the U.S. solar and energy storage manufacturing fields has reached $34.8 billion. Among them, investment projects worth $14.3 billion have been put into operation, projects worth $11.2 billion are under construction, and the remaining projects are in the process of development.

Currently, the production capacity of domestic photovoltaic module manufacturing in the United States is 65.1 gigawatts, which can meet the demand of the U.S. domestic market in 2026. Before the U.S. introduced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, the annual production capacity of U.S. photovoltaic modules was only 7 gigawatts, and now it has more than quadrupled.

China is accelerating the development of commercial space. In November 2025, the National Space Administration established the Commercial Space Department and issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025 - 2027)". Currently, there are more than 600 commercial space enterprises in China, covering the entire industrial chain of rockets, satellites, launches, and applications. China's "Sun - Chasing Project" has built the world's first full - link, full - system ground verification system for space solar power stations.

According to the information released by the National Space Administration, in 2025, China had 50 commercial launches, accounting for 54% of the country's total space launches that year; a total of 311 commercial satellites were put into orbit, accounting for 84% of the total number of satellites put into orbit in China that year. The progress of reusable launch vehicle technology has accelerated: the Zhuque - 3 reusable launch vehicle completed its maiden flight, achieving successful orbit insertion of the second stage, and core technologies such as the re - entry and return of the first stage have been verified.

This article is from the WeChat official account "Caixin Magazine". Authors: Xu Peiyu, Ma Mingze, Yin Lu. Editor: Ma Ke. Republished by 36Kr with permission.